Did Ford's campaign use dirty tricks to keep John Tory out of the race?

You may recall that John Tory was originally considered a front runner for the Toronto mayoral race, until he declared that he wasn't going to run and thus handed the race to Rob Ford. So it's rather interesting to see a report that one of Ford's top campaign staff went to great lengths to keep Tory from running:

The Rob Ford campaign had one of its members anonymously call John Tory’s radio show and bait him about his integrity in a strategy to keep Tory out of Toronto’s mayoral race.

Nick Kouvalis, Ford’s deputy campaign manager and now the mayor-elect’s chief of staff, told a forum Friday that his success in keeping Tory out of the race was a “huge victory” and “Rob won because of it.”

And now that Ford is elected, he added, the transition team is talking to Tory, the Newstalk 1010 host and chair of the Toronto Summit City Alliance, about playing a possible role in the Ford administration.

Kouvalis disclosed the election tactics less than a week after admitting the Ford campaign set up a fake Twitter account for “queensquaykaren” (aka Karen Philby) — a supposed Smitherman supporter, complete with photo and profile — to covertly obtain a recording of a potentially damaging phone conversation between Ford and an OxyContin drug user.

From the Star (h/t pogge). And are Ford's people trying to deny this? No, just denying that there's anything wrong with doing that:

Kouvalis denied the anonymous call and fake Twitter account were “dirty tricks,” portraying them as a normal part of campaigns done by all sides.

Hmm. Deception is a normal part of campaigning? I guess...

A sobering look at the public mind

The success of politicians like Rob Ford is bewildering to a lot of people, who tend to expect that a guy who is so obviously a xenophobic, narrow-minded jerk will be repellent to most people. One response seen in a focus group that Smitherman's team put together is revealing:

During one Marzolini focus group, a middle-aged woman explained that she would overlook personality failings in a mayor – as long as he didn’t waste her taxes.

“It was the most powerful thing I’d ever seen,” recalls campaign manager Bruce Davis. “People knew [Mr. Ford] had these character flaws. They knew all that …”

And, by all appearances, they didn’t care.

From the Globe. For lefties like me, this is disturbing; it paints a picture of narrow-minded suburbanites who don't care how bad a politician is to other people, as long as he or she is good to them. Perhaps this also explains some poll results discussed in another Globe story:

A new EKOS Research survey, released Thursday morning, shows voters “are underwhelmed with Canada’s actions on the world stage.” Asked whether they disapproved or approved of the Harper government’s foreign policies, 37 per cent said they disapproved compared to 21 per cent who approve and 35 per cent who don’t care either way.

“The data seems to suggest that the Tories don't have huge problems on foreign policy,” Mr. Graves told The Globe. “Wins like Haiti and losses like UN net out as mild negative.”

And by "mild negative" what they really mean is "it's not going to make the slightest bit of difference how most people vote". After all, Harper's supporters, like Ford's, care more about how much they pay in taxes than whether the government is bombing children and embarrassing us on the world stage.

Ford cruises to victory in Toronto, Waterloo decides General Ripper was right

It seems that those polls suggesting that Smitherman was within striking range of Ford were inaccurate:

Rob Ford, the city councillor who campaigned against waste and business-as-usual at City Hall, is the new mayor of Toronto.

With 90 per cent of polls reporting, Mr. Ford took almost 49 per cent of the vote, compared to 34 per cent for former Ontario deputy premier George Smitherman and 11 per cent for third-place finisher Joe Pantalone, the current deputy mayor.

From the Globe. How much damage he can do depends on who gets elected to council; my guess is that he won't have enough allies to accomplish most of what he'd like to, but I don't know. Those more familiar with the makeup of council are encouraged to comment.

Edited to add: OK, this looks bad.

Meanwhile, in Waterloo Region, all three cities have reelected their mayors, and Waterloo itself seems to have voted strongly against any formal talks with Kitchener about amalgamation in a referendum. In a separate referendum, they narrowly voted to discontinue the fluoridation of the city's drinking water.

Also notable is that Brenda Halloran is the first Waterloo mayor to be reelected in 16 years. It strikes me that Winnipeg also has a pattern that could use breaking, namely the fact that we haven't thrown out an incumbent mayor since 1956. In two days we'll find out if the pattern will hold for another four...

A guide to Toronto's mayoral candidates

Courtesy of the Star. Some highlights:

Taxes: Ford wants to abolish the land transfer tax, while Smitherman and Pantalone want to keep it. The situation with property taxes is interesting. As noted previously, Smitherman is actually even more aggressive than Ford on this issue - he wants to freeze them, while Ford merely wants to index them to inflation.

Transit: Ford, much like Katz in Winnipeg, wants to tear up the existing plans and renegotiate. Pantalone wants to continue, while Smitherman actually wants to add to existing plans.

Other environmental issues: Both Pantalone and Smitherman scored high here (20 and 18 out of 20 respectively). Ford didn't bother to answer the questionnaire.

Contracting out: Pantalone wants to freeze it; both Ford and Smitherman want to do it. Of the two, Smitherman is arguably worse than Ford, since he is open to contracting out bus routes in addition to garbage and recycling.

Debt: Pantalone figures there are higher priorities, and that the debt can be kept constant. Both Ford and Smitherman want to actively reduce it by selling city assets.

Hiring of staff: None of them advocate massive layoffs. Pantalone wishes to continue the present policy, which is to simply evaluate whether it's necessary to fill a given vacancy. Ford and Smitherman are much more aggressive here, wanting to eliminate 1,500 and 1,300 jobs, respectively, by attrition.

Size of council: Pantalone and Smitherman want to leave well enough alone, while Ford wants to cut it in half.

Looking at it in this way, Smitherman does seem to be somewhat preferable to Ford overall, and I certainly think the venom that some have directed towards those who advocate tactical voting is a bit excessive. Nonetheless, I still think Smitherman would remain mayor for a lot longer than Ford would if elected, and that could be a negative in itself. So I'd still urge progressive Torontonians to hold out for Joe.

More commentary on the Toronto mayoral race

Much as the prospect of teabaggers winning control of the US Congress is a bit worrisome (but see here for some perspective on that), the prospect of someone who is a teabagger in all but name becoming mayor of Canada's largest city is more than a little stomach-churning. But as noted before, not everyone thinks Smitherman is enough of an improvement on Ford to be worthy of support. The Star's Royston James has this to say:

So, before you hold your nose and vote Smitherman, you should ask yourself: What is it about Ford that scares me? Who and what am I voting for? Why am I voting against someone? Because, holding your nose and voting, well, stinks — especially after the vote.

So what are you want from next Monday’s vote?

If your priority is to get someone at city hall who can stand on the international and national stage and represent Toronto — because he speaks well and “looks like a mayor,” then maybe Smitherman gets your vote hands-down. His years as deputy premier were a rehearsal for the role. He is motor mouth.

If your priority is to continue the legacy left by outgoing mayor David Miller — an ethic of growth in city services and civic staff, bike lanes and European-style streetcars, environmental initiatives and making Toronto the greenest city on the planet — then Joe Pantalone is your candidate.

And if you are concerned about city hall spending and the growth of the city’s budget and the perennial fiscal deficit even after hundreds of millions of tax dollars have been added to the ledger, then Ford has earned a penny-pinching reputation.

Now, if you find Ford’s anti-spending policies so repulsive that he must be stopped, then you might be careful with your dalliance with Smitherman, especially if your concern is the diminution or destruction of city services. On that score, both candidates are closer than the Anybody-but-Ford crowd lets on.

From the city budget perspective, Smitherman may even be worse for you.

That sounds strange given what we already know about Ford, but James makes some good points:

First, he advocates a tax freeze in 2011, turning his back on some $60 million he obviously needs. Not even Ford does that.

Second, Smitherman plans to run up to Queen’s Park for a $100 million subsidy to balance the books. Again, he’s alone on that. And he suggests he will get this money even though his budget numbers show the city with a surplus of $50 million. In other words, his friend Dalton will give him $100 million and add to the province’s ballooning deficit so Toronto can net a $50 million surplus.

These two points are relevant because Smitherman intends to spend more on a range of platform promises than either Pantalone or Ford. So, he needs more “savings” to balance the books.

Now on the other side of the coin, of course, is the fact that Ford is so personally offensive. No need to go over the reasons again and again; the guy is ridiculous. And there's no doubt that the next four years will be rather embarrassing for Torontonians if Ford wins (perhaps even worse than Lastman's final term). Nonetheless, I stand by my prediction that if Ford does win he will either serve a single term, or else moderate his behaviour. And in any case, it's not a case of the entire city council being taken over by Ford clones; I'm pretty sure he won't have the votes on council to do all the crazy things he says he wants to do. So all things considered, if I lived in Toronto, I'd feel fine about casting my vote for Pantalone.

Toronto mayoral race now also a dead heat

Perhaps Torontonians are having second thoughts about Ford:

A new poll conducted over Thanksgiving weekend shows a dead heat between Toronto mayoral frontrunners Rob Ford and George Smitherman, with the former deputy premier edging the Etobicoke councillor by one percentage point.

Of the 400 people surveyed in the Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for Newstalk 1010, 31 per cent said they plan to vote for Mr. Smitherman – and 30 per cent supported Mr. Ford. Deputy mayor Joe Pantalone garnered 11 per cent of the vote, while 4 per cent of those polled said they’d vote for Rocco Rossi if the vote were held tomorrow.

From the Globe. I guess the "Ford is scary" message is starting to sink in (the fact that Ford actually is scary might have something to do with it).

In any case, it's worth noting that this is still anyone's race:

The poll also indicated a sizable number of voters are still on the fence, however: A quarter of those polled said they still have no idea whom they’ll vote for come Oct. 25. And while the majority – 54 per cent – of those polled said they intend to cast a ballot on election day, voter intention was highest in Etobicoke, (73 per cent), followed by Toronto (60 per cent), East York (53 per cent), Scarborough (51 per cent) and North York (38 per cent). Mr. Pantalone’s supporters said they’re the most likely to vote, with 72 per cent saying they intend to cast a ballot. He’s followed by those supporting Mr. Smitherman (65 per cent), Mr. Ford (57 per cent) and Mr. Rossi (37 per cent).

The fact that Etobicoke's residents are the most likely to vote might favour Ford; on the other hand the fact that Ford's supporters are less likely to vote than Smitherman's counters this.

By the way, in this post, I somewhat downplayed the evils of Ford. I still more or less stand by that, but it's worth remembering that on environmental issues, Ford and Smitherman are polar opposites:

Mayoral candidates Rob Ford and Rocco Rossi both received failing grades from the Toronto Environmental Alliance because they declined to fill out the green group’s survey.

But the campaigns say they refused because TEA passed out a biased survey.

George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone, meanwhile, both garnered A+ grades.

Source. I might add that Smitherman does have another advantage over Ford -- namely, Torontonians won't have to be quite so embarrassed to be represented by him.

Toronto's day of reckoning approaches

The latest polls still show that Rob Ford has a five point lead over George Smitherman in the race for mayor. Given what an idiot Ford appears to be, this is rather unsettling, and this is no doubt why nominally left-leaning Joe Mihevc has endorsed Smitherman. Nonetheless, this has led to a strongly worded response:

Dear Joe Mihevc,

This election is all about jobs and services, ethics & principles and who we trust to take us through the next four years. For you, it should have been all about the marginalized sectors of Toronto, and how collectively to provide protection for what we all worked so hard to create, protect and then re-create after the provincial Harris/Eves & Toronto Lastman years.

This election is very important for Toronto’s working class, un- and under-employed workers, poor families, new Canadians and senior citizens, all of whom have a lot to lose if Rob Ford or self-identified “compassionate cutter” George Smitherman are elected.

For many of us, neither can be a choice: Door A promises no less than 6,000 jobs eliminated while Door B, your candidate, will see the elimination of 4,000 jobs by attrition. Whether you like it or not, both candidates objectively will destroy the programs and services we all need. Unlike these candidates, we cannot “buy” our way out of the problems we face like wealthy people are able to do.

Telling you how angry, disappointed and betrayed many of us feel doesn’t properly convey the depth of emotions being experienced by community members today.

You made this part of the election ‘all about you’. In three weeks, the election will be over. You may have helped elect a Mayor who will attack our quality of life. Likely you will still have your job, as not much can happen to you in the election at this late date

This endorsement isn’t about principles, ethics, or solidarity. If your candidate is elected, you will be among the chosen inner circle. We, on the other hand, will have to continue to fight for the values, programs and services we all supported.

Can you really wonder, then, why so many are cynical, ‘apathetic’ and disengaged in the election process?

Katie McGovern
Recording & Corresponding Secretary
Local 4400

Now I'm kind of an outsider in this whole thing, having left the province 2½ years ago (and my main source before that was Metro Morning). Nonetheless, I see a lot to agree with in McGovern's letter, though I don't think I'd have worded it so harshly.

The thing is, as noted in that letter, while Ford is a huge jerk, Smitherman doesn't come across as much of an improvement, except with regards to the environment. Now as Audrey McLaughlin once said in a different context, "that's a pretty big except", but my fear of Ford is also tempered by my belief that he probably won't last more than a term; Smitherman, on the other hand, might hold on for as long as he wanted. And if Ford does hold on for multiple terms, it will be by moderating to the point of being no worse than Smitherman would have been. So in the end, I'd probably go ahead and vote for the best candidate, who in this case seems to be Joe Pantalone. On the other hand, I wouldn't be quite as judgemental as McGovern is about people who hold their noses and vote for Smitherman.

Have Torontonians lost their minds?

I'd assumed that Ford's impressive record of saying and doing dumb shit would erode his support. Not so apparently:

Rob Ford has taken a lead in the race for mayor of Toronto, according to the first new poll to be released in two months.

The Etobicoke councillor has the backing of 37.6 per cent of decided voters and a nearly nine-point lead over George Smitherman, who enjoys 28.7 per cent support.

The Pollstra Research poll puts Joe Pantalone at 15.5 per cent and Sarah Thomson at 10.3 per cent; Rocco Rossi has slipped into last place at 7.9 per cent.

Thirty-two per cent of voters remain undecided, the poll found.

From the Globe. What the devil is the matter with those people?

Chinese consulate predics result of Toronto mayoral election

Amusing:

The Chinese consulate seems to be stepping into Toronto’s mayoral race by sending one candidate — George Smitherman —to speak at an “international mayors’ forum on tourism” in central China.

The four-day, expenses-paid trip starting Thursday, which includes a side trip to World Expo 2010 in Shanghai, is raising eyebrows because Smitherman has never held city office.

“The Chinese consulate is showing favouritism toward one mayoral candidate and that’s not very diplomatic,” said rival Giorgio Mammoliti, adding: “If Smitherman wants to go to China and pretend to be an expert on tourism, so be it.”

From the Star. Of course, the consulate is simply making an educated guess about who they'll be dealing with come fall, but it comes across as kind of presumptuous. Still, worse things have happened.

My dad told me once that before the 1988 federal election, a US official was asked by media about the progress of the Canada-US free trade agreement, and in explaining that the issue would be more settled after the election, casually mentioned the date of the election, before it was called. If true, this would mean that the Mulroney government told a foreign power about when they would call the election, before telling the Canadian people. That's far worse than a consulate speculating about who would win...

Interesting...

At one point former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray was considering a run for mayor of Toronto. That would have been kind of interesting; I can't think of any other example of someone who's been mayor of two different cities. (OK, technically Mel Lastman was mayor of North York before Toronto, and Hazel McCallion was mayor of Streetsville before Mississauga, but that's not really the same thing). However, it's not to be, at least for now, because it seems Murray is shooting for Queen's Park instead:

The Ontario Liberals have found a gay political icon to succeed George Smitherman as the MPP for Toronto Centre.

Glen Murray, the former Winnipeg mayor and one of North America's pioneering gay politicians, will be the leading candidate for the governing party in a key downtown riding.

Sources told the Star, which first disclosed Murray's interest on Nov. 10, that the Canadian Urban Institute CEO will abandon his nascent campaign for the Toronto mayoralty to seek the Liberal nomination.

From the Toronto Star. I imagine he'll win, but it's too bad really; he has a half decent track record in municipal politics (better than any other Winnipeg mayor in recent memory, anyhow), but now he'll likely fall nicely in line with the Liberal party like a good little backbencher.