Uh-oh...

Test Results May Mark Spread Of Swine Flu To New York

Health officials here are expected to announce as early as today whether it was swine flu that sickened dozens of students at a private school in Queens.

If so, it would heighten concerns nationwide about the spread of a disease that has killed 68 people and strickened about 1,000 in Mexico.

From here. The mortality rate so far has not been huge, so it's probably no Captain Trips, but I'd be interested to know how many of those infected have actually recovered (as opposed to "haven't died yet"). Noteworthy too is this fact:

The majority of the people killed in Mexico's fatal flu outbreak were adults between 25 and 45 years old, a Mexican health official said on Friday.

This has been observed with other nasty outbreaks, including the infamous pandemic of 1918 which killed more people than World War I. Somewhat paradoxical, but this situation sometimes arises through a mechanism called a cytokine storm:

It is believed that cytokine storms were responsible for many of the deaths during the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed a disproportionate number of young adults.^[1] In this case, a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset.

Not a good thing.

Update: looks like it may be worse than initially thought:

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.

From the BBC. Now to be fair, this is just an anonymous post by a visitor to the site, but further down the page we see this:

Dr Duncan Wood, Mexico City

Yesterday in my office it was a bit surreal walking in to see all in blue masks with deep cleansing of computer equipment and surfaces going on. Let's hope it is contained and does not escalate. The local news is reporting 200 fatalities and reports of flu spreading from areas outside of Mexico City. Given the volume of daily commuter traffic on cramped busses and trains, this may not have to be too virulent to be disastrous in human terms. I wonder what controls there will be on flights in and out.

Not so anonymous this time, and more or less consistent with the above comment. This is highly ungood.

Additional update: Looks like those BBC comments were the result of scaremongers (possibly the same person); the claim that "the local news" is reporting 200 fatalities seems to be belied (so far at least) by this:

As Mexico struggled against the odds Saturday to contain a strange new flu that has killed as many as 68 and perhaps sickened more than 1,000, it was becoming clearer that the government hasn't moved quickly enough to head off what the World Health Organization said has the potential to become a global epidemic.

68 is a lot better than 200. Still, we're far from out of the woods. The disease has showed up in Kansas, and now the UK:

A member of cabin crew was taken to hospital with "flu-like symptoms" today after falling ill on a British Airways flight from Mexico City to Heathrow.

The World Health Organisation has warned countries to be on alert for any unusual flu outbreaks after a swine flu virus was implicated in possibly dozens of human deaths in Mexico.

The BA employee, who has not been named, has been taken to Northwick Park hospital in Harrow, a hospital spokesman said.

He added: "He has flu-like symptoms and is responding well to treatment. The patient was admitted directly to a side room and the hospital is scrupulously following infection control procedures to ensure there is no risk to any other individual in the hospital."

The man was taken from flight BA242 which landed at 2pm today, a BA spokesman said.

If I were in charge, I'd have quarantined that whole damn plane, but that's just me.