Cons close to majority territory - poll

What the heck is this?

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's governing Conservatives have lunged ahead of their political rivals in public favour and would easily be returned to power if an election occurred now, a new poll finds.

The national survey, conducted for Postmedia News and Global TV, reveals that the Tories have broken out of a lengthy stalemate in public opinion and appear to have political momentum on their side.

The new findings by Ipsos Reid raise questions whether Harper will try to precipitate an election next spring, or perhaps even earlier in 2011.

According to the survey conducted this week, the Conservatives are supported by 39 per cent of decided voters, up four points from a month ago. By comparison, Michael Ignatieff's Liberals remain at 29 per cent of the decided vote.

The NDP, led by Jack Layton, would garner 12 per cent of the vote, down four points from last month. The Green party, led by Elizabeth May, would receive nine per cent of the vote, down two points.

Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Québécois has 10 per cent of the vote nationally, but within its own province the party has a commanding lead over the other parties.

From the Free Press. Now I know that Ignatieff is not an appealing leader, but that doesn't explain the fact that the NDP is dramatically down from previous polls too. And it's not like the Cons have been doing themselves proud - they've lost one of their most competent ministers, the war in Afghanistan is a defeat waiting to happen, they've gutted the census, they continue to embarrass us on the international scene with their inaction on climate change, and they're under investigation for cheating in the 2006 election. So what's going on? This might provide a clue:

He says these “key cluster” ridings had been Conservative under Brian Mulroney. In suburban ridings, Mr. Nanos believes Mr. Harper’s team is using “crime as a hot button” and in the rural Liberal and NDP ridings, they are using the long-gun registry as a wedge issue.

From the Globe. The sickening thing is that this strategy seems to be a very sound one. Regardless of the actual truth, the TV-watching public generally seems to think crime is worse than ever, and if the Cons keep screaming "CRIME! CRIME! CRIME!" enough times, the suburban zombies fall into line and vote for them. Quite disheartening really.