Polls show a lot of volatility

A new poll has come out from Harris-Decima that completely contradicts the Ipsos poll of a few days ago:

The Conservatives and Liberals appear to be ending the year the same way they started it — in a dead heat.

A new poll by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima suggests the Tories have the support of 31 per cent of Canadians, statistically tied with the Liberals at 29 per cent.

The poll puts the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 11%, both noticeably higher than the Ipsos results. The Ipsos poll was conducted between the 7th and 9th; the Harris-Decima one was conducted between the 2nd and the 13th. So it's pretty clear that at least one of them must be wrong. Which one? On the one hand, the Harris-Decima poll has a larger sample size (2,022 respondents vs. 1000 for the Ipsos poll); on the other hand, the Ipsos poll, having been conducted in a shorter time period, might provide a better snapshot (and 1000 is still not an unreasonable size). The moral? Nothing really, except that it's hard to predict how the actual election will play out.

Push poll?

A blogger known as CathiefromCanada reports (h/t pogge) that Harris-Decima called her with some interesting poll questions:

Along with questions about whether I buy store-brand vegetables, there were two questions about the Afghan prisoner/Parliamentary privledge issue.

The first was a scenario I have already heard about, whether I would support MPs signing a confidentiality oath to see the prisoner documents. (And actually, no I wouldn't.)

But the second was interesting -- whether I would support an election being called because the Bloc Quebecois should not be permitted to sign a confidentiality oath and therefore should not be permitted to see the documents.

I wonder who commissioned this?

Why "tough on crime" policies are popular

A recent Harris-Decima poll has found that Canadians don't have a clue about crime:

Most Canadians believe crime is increasing, despite statistics to the contrary, a new poll suggests.

According to the Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey, 57% of respondents nationwide said crime is on the rise.

Only 10% said the crime rate has decreased over the last couple of years, as is actually the case. Thirty per cent said they believe it has remained relatively stable.

The perception that crime is increasing was particularly strong among women — 65% versus 49% of men.

And it was most marked in Alberta and British Columbia, where 73% and 69% respectively said the crime rate is worsening.

But actual crime statistics suggest those fears are unfounded.

Statistics Canada reports that the national crime rate dipped to its lowest level in 30 years in 2007, the most recent year for which data are available.

From the London Free Press. Blame the 24-hour news cycle, plus numerous reruns of Law and Order and CSI. Of course, the authorities love this, because it's easier to sell the public on increasing the numbers of police. This in turn creates more opportunities for stuff like this.