News roundup, 10 Jan 2024

- Economic losses from the fires in the Los Angeles area are now estimated to be at least $135 billion. Thousands of buildings, including celebrities' homes, have been destroyed; at least five people have died.

- Justin Trudeau now calls abandoning electoral reform his "biggest regret". And indeed, it was one of the more regrettable aspects of his tenure; too bad he's only acknowledging this now when there's no time to do anything about it. Of course, up until recently he didn't have to worry about his party being pushed into third place; coincidentally, the Liberals had fewer seats than the NDP at the time they promised electoral reform in the first place. And it turns out that his decision to abandon electoral reform came not long after a committee recommended some form of proportional system, rather than the instant-runoff system preferred by the Liberals. Meanwhile the party plans to have Trudeau's replacement selected by March 9, giving the winner 15 days before Parliament reconvenes (and probably votes non-confidence in the government).

- Elon Musk has heaped praise on Pierre Poilievre. This should come as no surprise to anyone, of course, except maybe those who hoped that he would be too busy heaping praise on the likes of Alice Weidel of Germany's AfD to remember who Poilievre is. I guess it's possible that stuff like this might harm the Tories somewhat after a while, but it's unlikely to hurt them sufficiently to stop them from winning a pretty solid majority.

- While most have until now dismissed Donald Trump's musings about annexing Canada to be a joke, some federal cabinet ministers, including Finance Minister Domenic LeBlanc, aren't so sure anymore now that Trump has repeatedly declared the intent to "use economic force" to compel Canada to join. One thing that's kinda, sorta reassuring is that he says he wouldn't use military force against Canada, even if he won't rule out using it against Denmark or Panama if they won't hand over the territories he wants to take from them. Perhaps he's seeing from his buddy Vlad's experience that invading and taking over your next door neighbour isn't as easy as it might look on paper. Or, more likely, Musk and Vance are seeing it and talking him down; I'm not sure Trump has the mental capacity to figure that out on his own, even with the evidence right in front of him.

- At a sentencing hearing for the Coutts border blockade trial, the prosecutor has called for prison time for two men convicted of mischief over $5,000 as a result of their actions during the protest. They're still likely to get off pretty lightly compared with two others who each got 6½ years each for weapons charges related to the same protest.

- Frances Haughen, the whistleblower who reported a few years ago about how Meta knew that their products were harming children and teens and damaging democracy, thinks it's no surprise that Meta is now doing away with fact checking in jurisdictions where they can get away with doing so. She believes that the company has "heard the message" from Trump; perhaps Zuckerberg isn't keen on the idea of falling out of a window.

News roundup, 5 July 2024

- Kier Starmer will be the UK's Prime Minister as his Labour Party has scored a decisive victory over the Conservatives in yesterday's election. They are projected to win 412 seats, though a number of seats still have not been decided. The Conservatives are forecast to win 122 seats, and the centrist Liberal Democrats 71. The SNP is down to 10 seats, while the Greens, Reform UK (the former UKIP) and Plaid Cymru win four each. This is Labour's second biggest win ever after Tony Blair's victory in 1997; a detailed breakdown is here.

- In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally are now expected to fall short of a majority in the second round of parliamentary elections this weekend, so France is safe from a fascist takeover for the time being. That's not to say there aren't problems, as evidenced by a disturbing number of threats and acts of violence against candidates and party activists in recent days. Nonetheless, Emmanuel Macron's roll of the dice may have paid off.

- In the US, Joe Biden is down two points following last week's disastrous debate. Interestingly, Trump didn't actually make any gains, suggesting that there may be a firm limit to his support. Unfortunately that's still more than enough for him to win unless something changes, and Biden is still vowing to stay in the race (so far at least). His campaign points to polling that suggests that none of the proposed replacements would fare significantly better than him - but they have far less name recognition, something that would change if one of them became the candidate. New reports that Trump is being accused of sexually assaulting a 13 year old ought to be decisive but probably won't convince his diehard supporters to change.

- TVO's Steve Paikin suggests that Justin Trudeau's best chance of holding onto power might be to revisit the electoral reform that he previously rejected. In principle this might well be true, although in practice it would be very difficult to actually implement this in time for the election. While there is no legal requirement for a referendum, making such a sweeping change without one might be a bridge too far, politically (and if one were somehow held, it would be seen as a referendum on Justin Trudeau by too many people). Plus, even if the change were somehow made in time for the next election, the Bloc would effectively become kingmaker, and they cannot be trusted not to back the Conservatives.

- Manitoba Hydro warns that millions of dollars of infrastructure investment are required to maintain the reliability of the power grid in the province. This includes upgrades to the power plants themselves (one of which dates back to 1911) as well as towers, lines, etc.

- Liquor Control Board of Ontario employees are striking as of today, something expected to greatly increase sightings of pink elephants in the province. Issues include too much dependence on part-time workers as well as plans to put alcohol in convenience stores.

- The City of Winnipeg has approved over 6,600 new housing units, a figure expected to rise to 8,000 by the end of November. Of those, at least 123 are considered "affordable", though the devil is in the details with something like that. Actual construction of these units will doubtless take a few years.

- A Toronto police detective with the force's drug squad was arrested in neighbouring Mississauga and charged with impaired driving, leaving the scene of an accident, fleeing police, and possession of cocaine and meth. Two Peel Regional Police officers were reportedly injured in the course of the arrest.

- A 72 year old man in Florida has been arrested for shooting a Walmart delivery drone as it passed over his house; he apparently believed that he was under surveillance. Say what you will, but anyone who can hit a moving target 75 feet up with a 9 mm pistol is a pretty good shot.

News roundup, 8 Feb 2024

- A preliminary version of the City of Winnipeg's 2024 budget has been presented. Transit is faring better than I'd feared; the reworking of the system is still scheduled to go ahead and service will be added to some suburban neighbourhoods; on the downside the fares are expected to increase by 10 cents each year for four years. We may also see the ability to use credit or debit cards on buses (something implemented by other cities years ago). There's also more being budgeted towards urban forestry, and they're looking at new sources of sorely needed revenue. On the downside, three city pools and 20 wading pools will be closing.

- The city is also looking at selling landfill gas on the natural gas market, rather than just flaring it as they do now. This could mean a 40% reduction in emissions, as well as $10 million in revenue for the city over a 20 year period.

- Manitoba is making moves towards faster accreditation of foreign-educated healthcare professionals. This is very much needed, both for the sake of our healthcare system and the professionals themselves (lets face it, driving a cab isn't the living it used to be).

- The question of what Justin Trudeau should say about the American presidential election is a tricky one. There's said to be a tradition of Canadian and American leaders not interfering in each other's elections (well, JFK actively worked to elect Lester Pearson but I guess we don't talk about that). The thing is, Trudeau is naturally tempted to draw comparisons between Trump and Pierre Poilievre; this is definitely a bit of an exaggeration but there are similarities in their populist style (and stronger similarities in terms of who tends to support them). This could have short-term benefits for Trudeau if it forces Poilievre to take a position on Trump, but two senior diplomats are warning that this could make things much worse for Canada if Trump manages to win.

- The Conservatives continue to be at the top of the polls nationally. The latest Nanos poll has the Cons at 40%, the Liberals at 24.7%, and the NDP at 20.6%, with the other parties in single digits.

- A private member's motion by NDP MP Lisa Marie Barron, which called for a citizens' assembly on electoral reform, has been defeated, despite the support of all of the NDP, Green, and Bloc MPs as well as 40 Liberals and 3 Conservatives. The only surprise is that so many Liberals did vote for it; most of their colleagues, though, as well as all other Conservatives, voted to protect their own perceived interests.

- The US Environmental Protection Agency is tightening the rules on soot emissions. Industry groups, though, are making angry noises.

News roundup, 19 Jan 2024

- The Canadian Security Intelligence Service is said to be investigating the Conservative Party's nomination in Oxford County, Ontario, in which Arpan Khanna was selected as the party's candidate last year. Khanna was subsequently elected in a byelection; he has ties to Pierre Poilievre's leadership campaign.

- The US Congress has kicked the can down the road to prevent a government shutdown, but this measure only lasts till March. The Republicans' real goal seems to be to tie any long term solution to cuts to Medicare and Social Security. They're also trying to tie any aid to Ukraine to immigration reform, which does not bode well for Ukraine.

- Electoral reform advocates are appealing the decision of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice which dismissed their attempt to have single member plurality (first past the post) elections declared unconstitutional.

- The Winnipeg Police Association has filed a grievance over the city's new Community Safety Team which is set to be deployed on Winnipeg Transit buses. I guess the cops are worried that they might look bad if unarmed security people are able to deescalate or detain people as effectively as a cop with a sidearm.

- Liberal MPs from Toronto are furious that Olivia Chow is calling the federal government out on its inadequate support for the city. Chow is asking for $250 million to cover the costs associated with housing immigrants and refugees who end up in the city; I guess the Liberals are sensitive about that topic given the overheated rhetoric that we've been seeing about immigration in recent months.

- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that a Palestinian state is essential for Israel's long-term security. He's probably not wrong, but Benjamin Netanyahu certainly does not agree, and I doubt the US will go beyond strong words in pushing for such a state.

- The Committee to Protect Journalists has ranked Israel the sixth worst country for imprisoning journalists, after China, Myanmar, Belarus, Russia and Vietnam, and just ahead of Iran.

- A midwife from Long Island has been accused of falsifying the vaccination records of about 1,500 kids in the state to enable them to attend school. Meanwhile there are outbreaks of measles happening in various parts of the US.

- The northern parts of Western Australia are facing a severe heatwave, with forecast temperatures being as high as 50°C in some places.

Even Brown's resignation couldn't save Labour

It's now official; David Cameron is the UK's new prime minister. What went wrong is unclear; as George Eaton points out, in settling for Cameron and the "alternative vote" the Liberal Democrats have retreated considerably from their previous position on electoral reform. But maybe it was seen as political suicide to side with Labour; alternatively, perhaps Labour figures that they're better off not being in power right now (some have suggested that the new PM is going to be extremely unpopular very soon, owing to the austerity measures that will be necessary). Also, Clegg and company might believe that AV is a foot in the door that could eventually lead to the adoption of multi-member STV at a later date (it would at least get the public accustomed to preferential balloting).

Incidentally, for some suggestions as to how the past election would have gone under AV and under multi-member STV, check this out (this is of necessity rather speculative, as in the real world many voters would have given their first preferences to a different party if they had confidence that their vote would count).

The UK election

Well, as we know the British election resulted in what the Brits call a "hung parliament". Myself, I prefer the more value-neutral term "minority parliament", but that's just me. (Interestingly, the British expression is not known to have been used before 1974, according to this article). Now Nick Clegg has said that he'll give the Conservatives the first opportunity to make a deal with him, given that they won the most votes as well as seats. However, one of Clegg's demands is electoral reform, something that the Conservatives are very leery of, so Brown may yet get the chance to hold onto power. Gwynne Dyer has a pretty good summary, but there is something in his article that I take issue with:

Clegg is talking to Conservative leader David Cameron first, since his party got the largest number of seats and votes, but Cameron’s best offer is "an all-party committee of inquiry on political and electoral reform". He cannot offer more, because his own party won’t let him.

This does not make a lot of sense politically, since Labour, not the Conservatives, is the greatest beneficiary of the current voting system. But there I go again, expecting rational self-interest to determine political choices. The real reason that the rank and file of the Conservative Party hate the idea of change—any kind of change—is because they are conservative.

While I agree with Dyer that Cameron won't be able to offer more, I don't agree that Labour is the biggest beneficiary of first past the post. In terms of seat count alone, Labour does indeed benefit more than the Tories do, but in order to successfully govern under PR a party has to have potential coalition partners. Both might have a shot at the support of the Lib Dems, but under PR there'd be other parties represented in the House as well. And I suspect that Labour's base would be a lot less uncomfortable with them forming a coalition with, say, the Greens than rank and file Tories would be about a coalition with the BNP or UKIP.

New kid on the block in UK politics

Well, he's not really new, having been leader of the Liberal Democrats for over two years, but for most of that time he wasn't really seen as a going concern. That may be changing:

A week ago this morning, it was still possible to refer to Nick Clegg as a fringe candidate, the nerdy leader of a third-place British party who could walk down city streets without being recognized.

What has happened to him in the past seven days has no precedent in British politics, and few in elections anywhere. You probably have to reach to the world of reality television, where fellow Briton Susan Boyle rose, in similar one-night fashion, from spinsterdom to celebrity.

As of Thursday, Mr. Clegg, leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats, is the most popular politician in Britain, with his party either leading or tied with the Tories throughout the week. An Ipsos MORI poll Wednesday showed his party tied with the Conservatives at 32 per cent, with Labour at 28 per cent – a doubling of the Liberal Democrat standing last week. Other polls had his party ahead.

“We have never seen anything like this sort of an instant rise before in the history of British elections, and it means that the entire system has changed, quite literally overnight,” said Bobby Duffy of the London office of polling firm Ipsos MORI. “What had been a fairly staid election to choose between Gordon Brown and David Cameron has suddenly sparked into life, and nobody knows where things will go now.”

From the Globe. If Clegg manages to take power, or even win the balance of power in a minority parliament, he could leave a permanent mark on British politics. After all, the Liberal Democrats have advocated electoral reform for many years; a switch to PR would have a dramatic effect on all future elections.

Whither electoral reform?

The latest Harris-Decima poll is probably bad news for those of us who want electoral reform in this country. In this poll, 64% of respondents said they prefer a majority to a minority government. Unfortunately, this will make the job of selling electoral reform harder, since under proportional representation majority governments are almost unheard of. There are still ways to do it (for instance, pointing out that if no party has any realistic hope of a majority, the parties will have to change their strategies and perhaps be less acrimonius) but I have my doubts about PR coming in in the next couple of decades. Declan at Crawl Across the Ocean seems a bit more optimistic, but I'm not sure I like all of his solutions either. For instance, he advocates instant-runoff voting as a step in the direction of PR. Others, though, fear that IRV would make the situation worse; it would tend to favour the party that is the second choice of a lot of voters... thus likely cementing the Liberals' role as "Canada's natural governing party" for a long time to come.