News roundup, 15 June 2026

- The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. The full text of the agreement has not yet been made public, but Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who oversaw the negotiations, says that they have declared "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon". Whether the Israelis will cooperate on that last point is another matter; indications are that they won't. Regarding Iran's nuclear program, the agreement allegedly 60-day timeline for "technical discussions" on the matter. That sounds like a comedown from the Americans' previous demands; I have to assume that the regime desperately wants to get gas prices down in time for the midterms this fall.

- Russian drone strikes on Kyiv have killed at least 10 people and severely damaged an 11th century cathedral that is part of a larger group of buildings called the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, a UNESCO world heritage site. The Russians are also accused of a "double tap" strike in which another wave of attacks comes after first responders have arrived; four emergency workers are among the dead.

- Last week's storm could set a record for insurance claims in Manitoba. MPI reports that they have received some 20,000 claims for vehicle damage so far, and home insurers are also seeing potentially unprecedented damage for such things as basement flooding.

- The rise of e-bikes has led the Netherlands to consider a 20 km/h speed limit for bike lanes and are conducting a two week trial in the municipality of Houten. Many naturally question whether such a rule needs to apply to regular, non-assisted bikes; after all, the real problem is the fact that an e-bike allows an inexperienced cyclist to reach speeds normally only reachable by an experienced cyclist.

- A study in the US has found that more than 50% of parents of young adults (18-25 years old) are using cellphone tracking apps to keep an eye on their kids. 

News roundup, 5 Jan 2025

- The US has abducted Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife after a series of intense strikes on the country early Saturday morning. He was quickly spirited out of the country and incarcerated in New York; Donald Trump says that the US will "run" Venezuela for the foreseeable future. Whatever you can say about Maduro (and most of it is not good), this is a pretty big demonstration (as if one were needed) that the Trump regime doesn't care about international law - or stability. Mark Carney seems nervous about rocking the boat, though, reminding anyone who will listen that his government does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate ruler of the country, while calling on "all parties" to respect conventions. The NDP and Greens were more direct, condemning the attack. Regardless, the consequences of the invasion may well impact Canada, as if the US is able to get a firm grip on Venezuela (a big if, mind you) it will dump a lot of oil on the market that competes directly with Alberta. The implications for the rest of Latin America, of course, are far more ominous, and in fact Trump is already making thinly veiled threats towards Columbia, Mexico, and Cuba. Oh, and he also wants to remind us that he still wants Greenland.

- Abacus Research has concluded that prospective referenda in Quebec and Alberta are unlikely to succeed due to what they call a "precarity mindset".

- One of the Alberta MLAs facing a recall has preempted the process by resigning. UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz will stay on until the spring, after which a byelection must be called within 6 months. Another 25 MLAs, 23 from the UCP and two from the NDP, are also facing possible recall in the near future.

- Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have very little in common - but one thing they agree on is that maybe, just maybe, the boom in AI data centres shouldn't be allowed to proceed unchecked, due if nothing else to the impact on electricity prices.

- Following last year's highly destructive fire season, the insurance industry is warning that Manitoba is facing increases in premiums on residential and cottage insurance. 

News roundup, 6 Oct 2025

 - Israel captured the flotilla attempting to deliver aid to Gaza on Friday, and took the 437 participants, including climate activist Greta Thunberg, into custody. Many of them, including Thunberg, have now been released; she has reported mistreatment by Israeli authorities during her detention.

- Israel has ordered all Palestinian civilians to leave Gaza City, saying that those who do not leave will be considered "militants" (i.e. fair game for IDF target practice). I guess we're not supposed to call this "ethnic cleansing" when the Israelis do it, but I'm not sure what else you can call that.

- A study using data from the reinsurance giant Munich Re has confirmed what most of us already know - that wildfires are getting worse, presumably due to climate change. Of the 43 wildfires between 1980 and 2023 that did over a billion dollars in damage, half occurred in the last decade.

- The Trump regime has extended a $20 billion lifeline to Argentina, apparently with no strings attached. The reason seems to be to prop up an economy that Argentine president Javier Milei is trying to operate on the principles favoured by Trump's backers, including widespread austerity and promoting a strong currency even at the expense of exporters. The IMF and the OECD seemed satisfied with the numbers, but the Argentine people are not, and the ruling party suffered a crushing defeat in the provincial elections in Buenos Aires in September. Fearing that the country could move back to the left in upcoming elections, they acted - only for Argentina to respond by slashing their export tariffs on grains and making a big soybean sale to China. This naturally does not sit well with American farmers, who are struggling to sell their crops, but it's probably not enough to make them oppose Trump so long as he continues to hurt the people they want to see suffer.

- Teachers in Alberta have walked off the job after negotiations with the Smith government broke down. The strike affects all regular public schools as well as francophone and Catholic schools. The government, unwilling to give the teachers anything, is now offering parents $150 a week to cover childcare costs.

- US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra says that he takes "great offence" to Canadians saying that his Dear Leader President is uninformed and untrustworthy.

- The director of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library in Abilene, Kansas has been ousted, apparently after refusing to give Trump a historic sword once owned by Eisenhower. Trump had wanted to give the sword to King Charles III on a recent state visit.

 - After a Republican representative in Homer, Alaska objected to an article in the Homer News about a vigil for Charlie Kirk, the newspaper revised the article to satisfy the representative. This sparked mass resignations at the paper and an affiliate. The original version of the article is archived here.

News roundup, 11 Feb 2025

- The unleashing of the Muskrats on government IT systems has resulted in several secure networks being exposed to the public internet, meaning that top-secret information may be vulnerable to hackers. Besides the Treasury department, this also involves things like nuclear research, something that you might not want just any run of the mill terrorist or hostile power to gain access to.

- One of Trump's executive orders was to stop work on a project called the National Nature Assessment, which was almost ready for publication in draft form. Researchers working on the project are trying to find a way to get it published outside of government; how the administration will respond to resistance of this sort remains to be seen.

- The Environmental Protection Agency has notified about 1,100 "probationary" employees that they could be terminated at any time, and has placed 160 staffers working on environmental justice related matters on administrative leave. Because of course any viewing of environmental issues that takes race and class into account in terms of their effects is "woke".

- The US Travel Association is freaking out over the prospect of Canadians boycotting travel in the US. Thousands of Canadians have already cancelled travel plans in that country, and there's no sign of the goodwill returning any time soon.

- A study by First Street Foundation concluded that some $1.47 trillion in property values in the US could evaporate over the next 30 years due to climate change and the resulting disasters and insurance rate hikes. The biggest declines are expected in Sunbelt states, but significant declines are expected in much of the country. Not everywhere, mind you; in parts of the Midwest and some eastern states, properties in more resilient areas are expected to increase significantly in value.

- A poll in the UK, conducted by YouGov on behalf of the nonprofit Control AI, has found that 87% of respondents would like AI developers to be required to prove the safety of their products before release, and 60% want an outright ban on any AI that is more intelligent than humans (though the criteria for the latter might be difficult to write into law). 75% want a ban on the development of AI systems that can escape their environments, while 63% want a ban on systems that can improve their own intelligence. Despite their nominally social democratic stance, the incumbent Labour government seems to have little interest in proceeding with such regulation, despite their pre-election promises.

- Evidence presented at a class action against Facebook parent company Meta indicates that staff pirated nearly 82 terabytes of books in order to train AI. Because under the Silicon Valley "move fast, break things" philosophy, following the rules is for wimps.

- Israel's defense minister is trying to argue that countries such as Ireland that criticized their actions in Gaza are "legally obligated" to accept Palestinians who become refugees as a result of Trump's plans for the territory. I don't think that's correct, and in any case I'm pretty sure Israel and the US are legally obligated not to ethnically cleanse the territory, but that's just me.

- A resolution before the North Dakota legislature calls for "a recognition of Almighty God as the source of authority" and "of the Lord Jesus Christ as the rightful ruler of nations". Some of the same legislators are also behind a bill calling on the Supreme Court to reverse its 2015 ruling that legalized same-sex marriage; worth mentioning is the fact that one of the people behind these resolutions, Nico Rios, made a social media post last week calling on the CIA to "overthrow and kick this Jew [Claudia Sheinbaum] out of power in Mexico".

News roundup, 6 Feb 2025

- Donald Trump has declared, in a joint press conference with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that the US will take over the Gaza Strip, with American troops if necessary. He gently suggested that some other Middle Eastern country should just take the inhabitants off his hands. I believe that there's a term for that sort of thing...

- The Trump administration is effectively shutting down the US Agency for International Development. The agency is not without its critics (some say, for instance, its relationship with the CIA has at times been a bit too close for comfort) but a complete shutdown might not be such a good idea. I'm sure the fact that it was investigating the behaviour of Elon Musk's Starlink is purely coincidental.

- The huge wildfires that swept through parts of greater Los Angeles have now been fully contained after nearly a month. The costs, though, are just beginning - while the impact on the greater economy so far hasn't been too severe, a lot of people are probably already underwater on their mortgages as a result of these fires; another disaster or two like that could change things as losses pile up, potentially causing a financial crisis as severe as the subprime crisis of 2007-2008 if not worse. Already, some people think that housing prices have peaked in areas most vulnerable to such disasters, partly driven by skyrocketing insurance rates.

- During the COVID-19 lockdowns, most Canadian provinces treated their liquor stores as an essential service. At the time, this was justified on the grounds that for people with severe alcoholism, sudden withdrawal can be life-threatening and those who don't die would add to the burden on the healthcare system. Now, however, many are wondering whether that hypothetical would be enough to outweigh the impact of increased consumption on public well-being. An inconvenient truth is that South Africa banned alcohol sales during the lockdowns, so that people would have less incentive to gather in violation of the lockdowns, and immediately experienced a huge decrease in violence as a result.

- Apparently some activist investors in Tesla are starting to sour on Elon Musk. Whether a bunch of Redditors are going to be enough to fire the CEO is another question, of course - at least unless and until the stock starts to tank.

- Greenland's parliament passed a bill banning foreign political donations, for reasons that will no doubt be obvious. The bill also prohibits donations over 20,000 kroner (about $2,500) from any individual, and no party may receive over 200,000 kroner in total from all donors.

- Knox United Church in Brandon, Manitoba is being forced to increase security following harassment and vandalism over their support for the LGBT* community. To his credit, the church's minister refuses to tone down his messaging on the matter; then again he has the support of his congregation and the church hierarchy. Less fortunate is a Baptist minister in Charlotte, NC who has been ousted for being too progressive.

News roundup, 20 Dec 2024

- Donald Trump is suing media outlets who report negative stories about him. Among the defendants are a newspaper that published a negative poll about him (he's suing the pollster too, of course), as well as the Pulitzer Prize foundation for giving awards to newspapers that reported on his ties to Russia.

- Justin Trudeau is reportedly preparing to announce a major cabinet shuffle today, in an attempt to fill the holes left by recent resignations; meanwhile more MPs keep coming out of the woodwork and calling for him to step down. For his part, Jagmeet Singh is unwilling to commit to bringing down the government in a confidence vote, but he isn't saying he won't either; he says it depends on the specific situation at the time of the vote. This is an eminently reasonable position, but unfortunately it probably won't endear him to a public who, especially in these times, tend to view caution as dithering.

- As has been predicted for some time, insurance companies are starting to cancel policies in areas facing serious climate-related risks. Nearly 2 million policies have been cancelled since 2018 for such reasons.

- Joe Biden has directed the Environmental Protection Agency to give California a waiver to enable the state to ban the sales of new fossil fuel-powered cars and light trucks by 2035. Eleven other states are also on board; the hope is that this will delay Trump's efforts to reverse course on EVs long enough for the automakers to shift their production to a degree that they won't want to undo.

- Montana's supreme court has upheld a ruling by a lower court that issuing permits for fossil fuel extraction without regard for climate change is a violation of the right to a clean environment that is written into the state's constitution.

- Residents of a Winnipeg apartment block who were evacuated last spring after structural issues were found in the building have been allowed to return home, though some lack confidence in the safety of the building and are declining the offer.

- A Winnipeg police officer who crashed his motorcycle last year was acquitted of impaired driving because the folks who took the blood samples used as evidence somehow "forgot" to label them with the date.

- Police in the Spanish town of Soria got a break in a missing person case when they found a Google Street View image of someone stuffing a corpse-sized object into the trunk of a car. Further investigation led to the discovery of remains believed to be the victim and the arrest of the deceased's ex and her new boyfriend.

News roundup, 31 Oct 2024

- An 18-year-old Florida resident has been arrested for threatening Democratic activists with a machete outside a polling station.

- Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform where bets can be placed on election outcomes, has confirmed that a single individual, using four different accounts, has bet $28 million on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. This represents more than 1% of all bets on the outcome. The trader in question has not been publicly identified except by their accounts. The platform is currently giving 63% odds of Trump winning, considerably higher than poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which gives Trump a 52% chance. Some Redditors are speculating that this simply reflects the biases of those who bet on these things; betting sites tend to skew male, and this one is crypto-based which also skews male. Hopefully this is the case...

- Pierre Poilievre is whining that it would be "not fair" for the Liberals to replace Trudeau as leader before the next election. I guess he's concerned that it might force the Cons to actually talk about policy, which is something of a weak point with that party.

- University of Pennsylvania economist Benjamin Keys suggests that the growing risk of climate related disasters should encourage people to reconsider whether it's a good idea to buy a house, at least if you live in a high-risk area. Given that insurance and property taxes have the potential to increase very suddenly, and that insurance might be difficult or impossible to obtain in the future, it might be safer to rent in such places.

- Mount Fuji has seen no snow at all this fall, the first time that this has occurred in the 130 years since detailed records began.

- Peg City Car Co-op, with the help of the Assiniboine Credit Union, is working on electrifying its fleet; the credit union is covering the cost of two charging stations to facilitate this.

- Kelly Vasas, the owner of the College Avenue building where all the tenants were illegally evicted this past summer, tried pulling the same stunt at another building he owns in August. It's almost as if the maximum fines for such actions are so small as to be just the cost of doing business for slumlords like him.

- New Zealand's governing coalition recently banned the public display of gang patches. The leader of one of the parties in the coalition, ACT, was asked what he thought about extending the ban to symbols such as the swastika - turns out he objects to the idea. I guess he wouldn't like us to draw the obvious conclusion, though.

- Russia has issued a fine of 2x10³⁶ rubles (approximately 2x10³⁴ US dollars) to Google for restricting Russian channels on YouTube. They probably will have a hard time collecting though.

How much does Toyota have to worry about?

How serious are the problems facing Toyota? Gordon Pitts at the Globe and Mail has this to say:

As a management guru-in-training, U.S. business lecturer Steven Spear embarked on pilgrimages to a shrine of industrial efficiency about 320 kilometres west of Tokyo.

His destination was Toyota City, an industrial centre of 400,000 dominated by its major employer, Toyota Motor Corp. (TM-N74.712.934.08%) From this base, the car company had spawned an industrial revolution – as well as rewriting the vocabulary of business to encompass terms like just-in-time, total quality and lean manufacturing.

As he observed the company up close, something nagged at Mr. Spear. Toyota had pledged in the late 1990s to become the biggest car company in the world. It embarked on extraordinary growth, spawning new models, entering new regions and enlisting new suppliers outside its traditional family.

But as it grew, its old system of mentorship broke down, Mr. Spear says, and the culture of quality was not extending to outposts far from Toyota City. While he admired Toyota and spent much of his career studying it, Mr. Spear sometimes worried the company was an accident waiting to happen.

That makes it sound really bad. Maybe it is bad, but it looks like those who follow these matters particularly closely aren't too worried about these problems as regards actual safety:

Insurance rates for drivers of Toyota vehicles shouldn't be going up because of the recent recall, a spokesman for the Insurance Bureau of Canada says.

Pete Karageorgos told CBC News a recall doesn't have any impact on the way rates are formulated.

"Recalls are basically issues that the manufacturers have with the vehicles, and what insurers look at over a period of time are the claims cost that a person or car model may have. How much does it cost to repair a vehicle and how often are certain vehicles involved in accidents — are they more expensive to repair?

"If there's a determination that there might be a fault with the vehicle [in an accident], then that would be investigated obviously through the use of engineering reports," Karageorgos said.

"If something is determined to be caused by a failure of product design where the manufacturer's at fault, insurance companies will typically then subrogate against that responsible party," he added.

From the CBC. Since insurance companies would no doubt grab the money if it was worth their while (can you imagine them giving anyone a break out of the kindness of their hearts?) one must conclude that they don't think it's worthwhile. Most likely, they expect the cars to be as safe as ever after this recall is dealt with. Of course, the buying public may not react the same way... but I suspect Toyota will come out of this fine in the long run.

Another possible barrier to health care reform in the US

The New York Times reports that there are plans afoot to buy people's life insurance policies off them, and securitize them in the same way they've done with mortgages:

After the mortgage business imploded last year, Wall Street investment banks began searching for another big idea to make money. They think they may have found one.

The bankers plan to buy “life settlements,” life insurance policies that ill and elderly people sell for cash — $400,000 for a $1 million policy, say, depending on the life expectancy of the insured person. Then they plan to “securitize” these policies, in Wall Street jargon, by packaging hundreds or thousands together into bonds. They will then resell those bonds to investors, like big pension funds, who will receive the payouts when people with the insurance die.

The earlier the policyholder dies, the bigger the return — though if people live longer than expected, investors could get poor returns or even lose money.

Fair enough, right? Well, besides the fact that it could be seen as kind of predatory, those planning to do this could stand to lose if, say, people start living longer:

To test how different mixes of policies would perform, Mr. Buckler has run computer simulations to show what would happen to returns if people lived significantly longer than expected.

But even with a math whiz calculating every possibility, some risks may not be apparent until after the fact. How can a computer accurately predict what would happen if health reform passed, for example, and better care for a large number of Americans meant that people generally started living longer? Or if a magic-bullet cure for all types of cancer was developed?

If the computer models were wrong, investors could lose a lot of money.

My emphasis. Think the investment banks are going to take health care reform lying down?

Hat tip to c1ue in this iTulip thread for the link.