News roundup, 31 Oct 2024

- An 18-year-old Florida resident has been arrested for threatening Democratic activists with a machete outside a polling station.

- Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform where bets can be placed on election outcomes, has confirmed that a single individual, using four different accounts, has bet $28 million on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. This represents more than 1% of all bets on the outcome. The trader in question has not been publicly identified except by their accounts. The platform is currently giving 63% odds of Trump winning, considerably higher than poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which gives Trump a 52% chance. Some Redditors are speculating that this simply reflects the biases of those who bet on these things; betting sites tend to skew male, and this one is crypto-based which also skews male. Hopefully this is the case...

- Pierre Poilievre is whining that it would be "not fair" for the Liberals to replace Trudeau as leader before the next election. I guess he's concerned that it might force the Cons to actually talk about policy, which is something of a weak point with that party.

- University of Pennsylvania economist Benjamin Keys suggests that the growing risk of climate related disasters should encourage people to reconsider whether it's a good idea to buy a house, at least if you live in a high-risk area. Given that insurance and property taxes have the potential to increase very suddenly, and that insurance might be difficult or impossible to obtain in the future, it might be safer to rent in such places.

- Mount Fuji has seen no snow at all this fall, the first time that this has occurred in the 130 years since detailed records began.

- Peg City Car Co-op, with the help of the Assiniboine Credit Union, is working on electrifying its fleet; the credit union is covering the cost of two charging stations to facilitate this.

- Kelly Vasas, the owner of the College Avenue building where all the tenants were illegally evicted this past summer, tried pulling the same stunt at another building he owns in August. It's almost as if the maximum fines for such actions are so small as to be just the cost of doing business for slumlords like him.

- New Zealand's governing coalition recently banned the public display of gang patches. The leader of one of the parties in the coalition, ACT, was asked what he thought about extending the ban to symbols such as the swastika - turns out he objects to the idea. I guess he wouldn't like us to draw the obvious conclusion, though.

- Russia has issued a fine of 2x10³⁶ rubles (approximately 2x10³⁴ US dollars) to Google for restricting Russian channels on YouTube. They probably will have a hard time collecting though.

News roundup, 30 Oct 2024

- The federal government reportedly plans to build a high speed rail link between Toronto and Quebec City, with stops in Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Trois-Rivières, and Laval. Of course, they have little or no chance of being reelected next year, so they don't have to worry about being made to follow through on the plans; instead they presumably hope to blame the Conservatives when the latter inevitably cancel the project.

- Several Liberal MPs are trying to force a secret ballot vote by the entire party caucus on Justin Trudeau's leadership. Such a vote would be non-binding; whether it would have sufficient force to overcome Trudeau's ego is an open question.

- Donald Trump's campaign is disavowing a joke made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, but not the numerous other hateful remarks made by Hinchcliffe and others at the event. The rally is already drawing comparisons with another rally held at the same venue in 1939 by the German American Bund. Some Trump supporters seem to be worried about the optics of the whole thing.

- Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, has lost its parliamentary majority in a snap election on Monday. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the only other party to have ever formed government since 1945, was the main beneficiary.

- Winnipeg police are investigating after numerous Stars of David were drawn on the sidewalk outside the Food Fare location on Portage Avenue. The store owner, who is Palestinian, commented that "If somebody went and drew a Palestinian flag in front of an Israeli or Jewish-owned store or business, I think it would be investigated as a hate crime. So in my eyes, this is definitely [one]".

- The University of Toronto's School of the Environment has announced that they will be refusing donations from fossil fuel companies; this is a positive development, but it's noteworthy that Princeton University, which made a similar move in 2022, reversed this decision earlier this year, saying that prohibiting individual faculty members from accepting such funding could be counterproductive (the U of T's policy does not constrain individual faculty members in the same way). And while Princeton says they will continue to divest from fossil fuel companies, they will no longer track their divestiture publicly.

- The city of Brampton, Ontario is trying to crack down on illegal rentals. Awkwardly, a city councillor is listed as co-owner of a house with a suite that was illegally rented out. When confronted about this, he initially denied ownership, then accused "City Hall insiders" of "leaking" the information.

News roundup, 29 Oct 2024

- The BC NDP appears to have the narrowest of majorities after the absentee ballots were counted in the hotly contested constituency of Surrey-Guildford. However, because their margin of victory was only 27 votes (less than 1/500 of the total votes cast) a judicial recount is automatic. Meanwhile Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe has secured a majority in yesterday's election in that province.

- Several incidents have occurred recently in the US in which ballot drop boxes were set on fire - most recently a couple of cases in the Portland metro area (one in Portland proper, the other in Vancouver, Washington). A superficially similar sounding case in Phoenix is being blamed on someone who set fire to a mailbox in order to get locked up so he'd have somewhere to stay and was thus apparently not politically motivated.

- The two back to back hurricanes that hit Florida earlier this month are motivating some voters, though it remains to be seen if it will be enough to turn the state blue. A promising sign is that young and first-time voters are voting early in large numbers compared to previous years.

- New research on human ability to withstand heat has concluded that the "wet bulb temperature" above which the human body gains more heat from the environment than it loses is more like 31°C, rather than the 35°C that was previously assumed to be the limit. If the global temperature average exceeds 2°C above preindustrial levels, significant parts of sub-Saharan Africa, India, and even China could see mass deaths in heat waves. Note that the 31°C limit is for normal healthy adults; for the elderly the limit could be as low as 22°C.

- The decision by Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos to overrule the paper's editorial board and not endorse any candidate has led to a significant backlash, with over a quarter of a million people (representing about 8% of subscribers) cancelling their subscriptions since the announcement.

- There have definitely been some unsettling attacks in Winnipeg in the last few days. From the university student attacked in her dorm room, to a daylight carjacking in which the victim was hit with her own car, to robbery with a machete, to attacking someone with a machete for the hell of it, or doing the same with a BB gun, we've seen rather a lot of nastiness of late - and, more worrisome, seemingly random nastiness.

News roundup, 28 Oct 2024

- Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has warned Russia that any attempt to annex his country would lead to war. Belarus has until now been seen as a pretty reliable ally for Russia, but there are suspicions that the annexation of the country is part of Putin's long-term plans. Others scoff at this; some in this Reddit thread think this is just a show for the West, or else Lukashenko trying to keep a door to the West open in case Russia's ambitions in Ukraine are thwarted.

- Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, speaking as the warmup act for a Donald Trump rally in Georgia, gave a rather graphic metaphor for what he hopes a second Trump presidency would mean for America:

“If you allow your hormone-addled 15-year-old daughter to slam the door and give you the finger, you’re going to get more of it,” Carlson said. “There has to be a point at which Dad comes home.” At this point the crowd erupted into raucous cheers.

“Dad comes home and he’s pissed,” Carlson continues. “He’s not vengeful, he loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them … And when Dad gets home, you know what he says? You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now. And no, it’s not going to hurt me more than it hurts you. No, it’s not. I’m not going to lie. It’s going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts me. And you earned this. You’re getting a vigorous spanking because you’ve been a bad girl, and it has to be this way.”

Clearly this struck a chord with the crowd. Later, when Trump came on stage, they screamed “Daddy’s home” and “Daddy Don”. Sigmund Freud almost rose from his grave.

It's becoming more and more apparent that close to half of the American population is, to put it kindly, not of sound mind.

- The Washington Post has announced that they will not endorse any candidate for president this year, for the first time since 1988. Reportedly the editorial page editor, David Shipley, had approved an endorsement of Harris, but it was shot down by "management" (presumably meaning Jeff Bezos). The move sparked resignations from the board; the same thing also happened at the Los Angeles Times. This has led to speculation that management is scared of what Trump might do to them if he does win the presidency - or at least insufficiently scared of what he might do to other people.

- New Flyer Industries is significantly expanding their production of electric transit buses. This will enable some buses to be completely assembled at the Winnipeg plant; until now only the shells of the buses have been manufactured here, while the mechanicals have been added at a plant in Alabama. One hopes that some of these buses can be put to use on our own streets...

- A final seat count for BC's election last week is still pending as some 22,000 absentee ballots await counting.

- The robotics industry is now producing farm equipment that can harvest crops autonomously. This will help deal with the shortage of farm labour; it will probably also hasten the depopulation (and resulting decline in political influence) of rural areas.

- Chris Alexander, who served as Minister of Citizenship and Immigration under Stephen Harper, has accused Postmedia reporter David Pugliese of having been a Russian asset since the 1980s. The allegation was made during Alexander's testimony before the House of Commons standing committee on public safety and national security on Thursday.

- A private member's bill introduced to the Ontario legislature by Liberal MPP Karen McCrimmon aimed to facilitate the conversion of vacant office space into housing. Unfortunately the government has shot the bill down; whether this is just the knee-jerk reaction of a government that doesn't want anything done that they can't take credit for, or whether they have a deeper opposition to the idea, is not clear. I could see Doug Ford not relishing an expansion of housing in the inner city, though, as such housing tends to be occupied by people less inclined to vote for his party. Not to mention, a disproportionate amount of Ford's base comes from people who work jobs that can't be done remotely, and some of those people are downright resentful of people who are able to do so.

News roundup, 24 Oct 2024

- Justin Trudeau is refusing to step down as Liberal leader, despite the demands from a growing number of MPs that he do so. Some of the rebel MPs expressed concern with how quickly he dismissed the suggestion; none of this is going to help salvage the party's chances in the next election, or even with rebuilding afterwards.

- In southwestern England, recurring flooding is being addressed by buying out farmers at around £5,000 an acre and restoring the saltmarsh habitat that existed previously. Not surprisingly, this has its detractors, but more of this sort of thing is going to be necessary, since the problem isn't going away any time soon.

- The driver who hit cyclist Rob Jenner in June, then left the scene, has pleaded guilty to dangerous driving causing death and leaving the scene of the accident. He was going 159 km/h in a 50 zone. In tangentially related news, police have been cracking down on "stunt driving" to an extent, although it's an uphill battle with these people.

- Winnipeg police had to shoot a dog on Tuesday afternoon after it attacked four people, causing serious injuries to one of them.

- Many polls significantly underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2020 election. The reasons for this are not entirely clear; one school of thought holds that low information voters are less likely to answer polls, and more likely to vote for the likes of Trump if they do vote. Notably, pollsters did better in the 2022 midterms (less engaged voters are more likely to sit the election out if the presidency isn't up for grabs). Others suggest that the 2020 election was heavily influenced by the pandemic and other factors. Pollsters are changing their methodologies in an attempt to correct for factors like these; the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen.

- A Cambridge University study has found a significant positive correlation between the number of Airbnb locations in a neighbourhood and its crime rate.

- Post-secondary institutions in red states are having a harder time attracting students from out of state as non-crazy students balk at having to live in such a place.

News roundup, 23 Oct 2024

- Toronto's University Health Network, which includes Toronto General Hospital, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto Rehab, and Princess Margaret Cancer Centre among others, is reintroducing mask mandates at their facilities. Given the potential for stirring up populist rage, I have to assume that this decision was not made lightly.

- 24 Liberal MPs have signed a document calling on Justin Trudeau to step down as party leader. The document gives a deadline of October 28, but does not specify any specific consequences if he doesn't quit. Nor could it; the party has no mechanism to force him out.

- The Manitoba government is holding off on issuing new licenses for urban convenience stores and gas stations to sell cannabis. The Domo chain of gas stations is disappointed, as they were hoping to start selling the stuff; the vice-president of the Retail Cannabis Council of Manitoba is applauding the move, however. Certainly there's no shortage of places to buy dope right now. There are, however, security issues with some of the stores; while the product is generally stored in a secure location like a safe, that doesn't stop would-be thieves from doing a lot of damage to the stores before they give up. I'd have expected that actual armed robbery would be a bigger risk, especially as those stores likely do a lot more business in cash than most retailers.

- Ontario premier Doug Ford insists on pushing ahead with his plan to force cities to remove bike lanes on major streets. In actual fact bike lanes are more of a solution to congestion than a problem, but Ford doesn't know that or, more likely, doesn't care - populists like him aren't interested in actual solutions so much as being seen by their base to be doing something. And the suburban sheeple who flock to Ford don't want to be confused by the facts.

- I've often been critical of Winnipeg city councillor Brian Mayes here due to his efforts to please NIMBYs in regards to density issues, but I do have to give him credit for at least raising the issue of natural gas heating. He's introducing a motion at council's Climate Action and Resilience Committee calling for city staff to produce a report on methods of phasing out natural gas in new and existing city buildings.

- After all regular ballots were counted, the NDP had a lead of only 20 votes in Juan de Fuca-Malahat. Mail-ins have yet to be counted; if the difference is less than 100 votes after that, a recount is automatic.

- Victoria's city council is asking the provincial government to take action to support the city's small businesses. One of the things they are requesting is for the province to "consider impacts to downtown Victoria when making decisions about remote and hybrid work arrangements". Interestingly, someone in this Reddit thread alleges that the city council did not make similar directives to their own staff; presumably that's because negotiations with city workers are their problem, while negotiations with provincial workers aren't.

- A 14 year old from Orlando, Florida whose best friend was an AI chatbot shot himself with his stepfather's handgun. His mother blames the chatbot for his death (rather than, say, blaming her husband for leaving a .45 where a troubled teen could find it).

News roundup, 22 Oct 2024

- Control over BC's legislature remains up in the air due to several recounts, but one thing that's clear - the knuckle-dragging loogans did way better than they ought to, and not just in the purely rural ares either. Several Conservatives singles out by the NDP for their extreme views won their seats, including Brent Chapman (the guy who made overtly racist social media posts about Palestinians and suggested that several mass shootings were hoaxes), Jordan Kealy (who promoted the "chemtrails" conspiracy theory), and Jody Toor (who claimed to be a "medical doctor" on the basis of a degree from a crackpot online institution in Hawaii). On a more positive note, Chris Sankey (who claimed that vaccines cause AIDS and claimed that the Jan 6 riot was a hoax) appears to have been defeated, and Bryan Breguet (who questioned the existence of anti-indigenous racism) is still awaiting the results of a recount. Nonetheless, it all brings to mind the quote sometimes attributed (questionably) to Winston Churchill, that "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter".

- Related to that Churchill "quote", Liberal MP Sean Casey, who has joined the growing ranks of those calling for Justin Trudeau's resignation as party leader, said something interesting on the subject:

Voting is an emotional exercise. It’s not based on logic. If it was based on logic and rational thinking, we’d be 20 points up, not down. But there’s been baggage accumulated. People have tuned him out.

There's definitely something to that; while "20 points up" is overstating the case given the rather mediocre performance of the government, decent people voting on the basis of reason and logic would not be going for the Poilievre Conservatives.

- In the US, the ever-gullible masses are in thrall to absurd claims about the recent hurricanes, from claims about Biden and Harris' supposed indifference to the plight of victims to the idea that some nebulous "they" (presumably including Democrats, Jews, etc) are controlling the hurricanes. Of course stuff like this is not without consequence - one man has been arrested for threats against FEMA workers (he is of course unrepentant, like most such people).

- Switzerland, despite their longstanding neutral stance, has signed onto the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), which seeks to build a unified air and missile defence system across the European subcontinent. They reserve the right, however, to withdraw their participation in the event of an actual war.

- A baseless story being circulated that alleges that Tim Walz sexually assaulted one of his students seems to be getting a boost from Storm-1516, a network affiliated with the so-called Internet Research Agency and believed to operate out of St. Petersburg. They've previously circulated stuff about Kamala Harris as well; stuff like this makes claims that Russia's leaders are becoming more leery of Trump seem like wishful thinking.

- Winnipeg councillor Brian Mayes, who never met a NIMBY he didn't like, continues to cozy up to those people; he's now demanding a map of every location in the city that would be impacted by the proposed "as of right" zoning (which would enable buildings of up to 4 storeys to be constructed without a hearing as long as they're within 800 metres of a transit route).