News roundup, 5 Feb 2025

- Five cases of measles have been confirmed in southern Manitoba; cases appear to be associated with a church in Winkler and are thought to be linked to an outbreak in Ontario.

- While Wab Kinew is deferring the ban on American alcohol until the threatened tariffs are imposed, he recognizes the need to diversify (or, as he put it, "Trump-proof") the Manitoba economy. This would ideally not only involve finding new markets but "getting better at making stuff". Of course this is a tall order, and probably should have started decades ago.

- In response to the 10% tariff imposed on China, that country has imposed tariffs of their own, as well as export controls on certain key metals and an anti-monopoly investigation of Google. The latter, in particular, is not uncalled for, though I don't think I'd trust the Chinese state to do a balanced investigation.

- State Farm Insurance is asking California's regulators to suspend their price controls so that the company, one of a diminishing number still offering fire insurance in the state, is able to cover payouts resulting from the recent catastrophic fires in Los Angeles. Specifically, they are asking to be allowed to raise insurance by 22% for single-family homes, 15% for condos, and 38% for renters' insurance. This is despite the fact that they requested even bigger increases last year. Of course this situation isn't likely to improve for decades, if at all, nor is it limited to California. How the American economy will weather millions of people walking away from their mortgages when they can't renew due to lack of insurance remains to be seen.

- Also on the subject of the California wildfires, Trump just ordered over eight billion litres of water that was being kept in reservoirs to be released, ostensibly to help fight the fires. Unfortunately, this water is going nowhere near Los Angeles, and moreover would likely have been more badly needed in the summer, which is often very dry. You'd almost think he was actually trying to damage California; while Trump himself probably isn't smart enough to know what he's doing, some of the people behind him are.

-  Robert Reich thinks that Trump's real motivation with his numerous erratic moves and statements is simply to show strength, and to create uncertainty that he could take advantage of. For his part, Gwynne Dyer thinks that while Trump's stated desire to annex Canada is not particularly realistic, Trump is dead serious about the matter, and that we need to start preparing for the worst.

- One positive from all this madness from south of the border is that Canadians are more united than they've been in decades. This is causing some consternation for the Conservatives, whose entire campaign plan could be summed up as "fuck Trudeau", "axe the [carbon] tax", and "Canada is broken". Since the first two slogans are now obsolete, it's nice to see the third one looking silly as well.

News roundup, 4 Feb 2025

- Donald Trump has agreed to defer the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for another month, following talks with Justin Trudeau and Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum in order to give time for more negotiations. The 10% tariffs on China are still going ahead on schedule; in addition he also has the EU in his sights. The chaos of the on-again, off-again tariff threats has spooked markets; presumably Trump, Musk, and their cronies are buying on the dips. In Manitoba, the Kinew government is reciprocating with a pause on the removal of American liquor from stores. Meanwhile in BC, David Eby is considering a more substantive move (assuming the tariffs come back) - he wants to ensure that sales of energy and critical minerals are directed towards other markets.

- If the current uneasy truce fails to hold, one possible target of export restrictions could be potash. The US imports around 80% of their supply, and Canada controls some 40% of global reserves of this crucial fertilizer. The prospect of this worries Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who had requested that potash be exempted from the Trump tariffs.

- The Inspector General of the US Department of Agriculture, Phyllis Fong, was escorted from her office by security after refusing to leave voluntarily after Trump fired her. I'm sure the fact that her office had investigated one of Elon Musk's companies is totally coincidental...

- After the World Federation of Advertisers suspended advertising on Twitter/X, Elon Musk launched a lawsuit last year claiming that the federation and its members were unlawfully conspiring to deprive Musk's platform of revenue. He is now expanding the lawsuit to target several companies whose ads were removed from the platform.

- The European Union is continuing with a piecewise rollout of legislation to minimize the risks from artificial intelligence. Apps with certain kinds of functions, including cognitive behavioural manipulation, classifying people based on personal characteristics, and biometric identification and categorization of people, is banned outright. Sounds eminently reasonable, but there's a lot of hand-wringing from techbros in this Reddit thread about allegedly stifling innovation (mixed in with slightly more valid concerns that more harmful uses of AI will just be developed elsewhere anyway).

- An AI chatbot created by the Israelis to disrupt online discussion of the country's policies towards Palestinians has gone rogue, at times attacking the Israeli and American governments.

News roundup, 3 Feb 2025

- Donald Trump has followed through on his threat to impose 25% tariffs on nearly all imports from Canada. This is already having an impact in some places. The Trudeau government is responding by imposing tariffs on a number of American imports, including alcohol, vegetables, and clothing; they say there may be more to come. Unfortunately, Trump may not bend easily, especially if he is serious about annexing Canada. Meanwhile Manitoba and several other provinces are pulling all American alcohol from their shelves, while BC is responding with targeted bans against liquor from red states. And fans at an Ottawa Senators game booed the American national anthem at a game against the Minnesota Wild.

- Some of the people behind Trump have mused about abolishing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Given that without the FDIC people's deposits would not be guaranteed, the very act of abolishing it could very well trigger bank runs. This might serve the interests of billionaires who want to buy assets cheaply, but not anyone else's.

- A letter to the US Senate purporting to come from physicians in support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s confirmation for the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services was signed by a number of former doctors whose licenses were revoked, as well as a number of people who were never doctors in the first place.

- A Learjet 55 serving on a medivac flight from Philadelphia to Tijuana nosedived into the ground just after takeoff, killing all six people aboard the aircraft and at least one person on the ground. The aircraft had reached an altitude of just over 1,600 ft before the pilots lost control for reasons yet to be explained; radar data indicates that its rate of descent exceeded 11,000 ft/min when contact was lost.

- The last of the three soldiers on board the helicopter that collided with an airliner over the Potomac has been identified. Her family had initially asked that her name be withheld;  this naturally led to all sorts of speculation about her identity. Among these were false online statements identifying her as Jo Ellis, who is a transgender pilot with the Virginia National Guard. Ellis has gone public to make it clear that she's very much alive, though.

- One of the Jan. 6 rioters pardoned by Trump has just received a 10 year sentence for impaired driving causing death. This comes just after it came out that another pardoned rioter is facing child sex abuse charges and that a third died in a gun battle with police. I daresay there seems to be some sort of pattern here.

- Montreal has brought in a partial ban on Airbnb and other short-term rental services in order to free up housing for people who actually need it. Such services will be prohibited entirely between September and June, with the exception of certain designated tourism streets.