Thursday, June 10, 2010

An unnerving poll result for the Manitoba NDP

This Angus Reid poll (h/t Curtis at Endless Spin) shows a commanding lead for the McFadyen Conservatives -- they have 48% support, compared to 36% for the NDP, 12% for the Liberals, and 3% for the Greens. I'm not 100% sure what to make of it; the last Angus Reid poll looked like an outlier, but this is an even more dramatic rise for the Tories. One aspect of the poll's methodology does make me wonder -- it was a poll of 800 randomly selected members of Angus Reid's panel. Presumably they make an effort to make the panel reflective of the electorate, but there may be limits to this (perhaps someone more conversant with modern polling methodology could enlighten me). On the other hand, Angus Reid is a respected pollster and it would be foolish to dismiss this out of hand. To someone like me, McFadyen's crowd look like a bunch of idiots, while Selinger carries an air of calm competence. However, I freely admit to not being the average Manitoban. We'll have to see if this trend continues with the next poll.

2 comments:

unclebob said...

I am highly suspicious that those who choose to be poll respondents are not entirely free of demographic anomalies.

On the other hand Selinger is probably blowing an opportunity to make his mark on Manitoba and I think it is starting to show.

From a Provincial perspective Hughie does not deserve the credit - I think some of this is coming from the Federal side

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