The spectre of Internet voting turns up in Manitoba

It seems some municipal officials want to introduce Internet voting:

Plans are already in the works for the next municipal election in 2014 that advance polls in Winnipeg will include the Internet.

"If you want to continue serving the people you serve, you've got to meet their expectations," city clerk Richard Kachur said. "It's also important for the next generation coming up. They use the Internet far more than anyone else. They expect it."

From the Free Press (h/t PolicyFrog). It's a seductive idea, to be sure; even decent folk like Joe Pantalone have advocated it. And it's in use already in some places, but does that mean we should follow their example? I don't see any way of ensuring that the vote isn't rigged by hackers, and even if you could guarantee beyond a reasonable doubt that it couldn't be rigged, it would be a lot harder to convince voters of this. It would undermine the legitimacy of the winner, too. At least now, I can accept that Sam Katz (and Rob Ford, for that matter) won fair and square. I might lament the narrow-mindedness of the voters who put them there, but I can't dispute their legitimacy. But if they had won their positions through Internet voting, a lot of people would be skeptical - perhaps to the point where they wouldn't bother voting next time, since the fix is in. Which is exactly the opposite of what the proponents of Internet voting want. And that's not even counting the fact that some would likely conclude that they ought to try to "un-fix" the next election (i.e. fix it in the other direction).

It's also worth noting that Internet voting could actually worsten the tendency for the poor to be underrepresented at the polls. Laziness spans class boundaries, but if those who can afford a computer and an Internet connection find it easier to vote than those who can't, this will further disenfranchise the poor.

Finally, you have to be suspicious of an idea that is promoted using bogus arguments. And PolicyFrog has found one in the article - U of M political scientist Jared Wesley, who thinks online voting is just grand, tossed out the old chestnut that "more people voted on American Idol than the American president". Sounds shocking, but it isn't true, as Froggy points out:

The 2008 U.S. Election drew over 131 million votes, while the biggest American Idol finale brought in about 100 million.

Furthermore, fans can vote multiple times on Idol. Given that the viewing audience for a finale ranges from 20 million to 30 million, and only a portion of those people actually vote, then it’s clear that waaaaaaaay more people cast a ballot for President than Idol. And don’t even get me started on votes cast by those over the age of 18…

So does anyone still think online voting is necessary or desirable? Fortunately, the city can't implement this without the province's co-operation, and the provincial NDP has shown no interest in this folly to my knowledge.

Ford cruises to victory in Toronto, Waterloo decides General Ripper was right

It seems that those polls suggesting that Smitherman was within striking range of Ford were inaccurate:

Rob Ford, the city councillor who campaigned against waste and business-as-usual at City Hall, is the new mayor of Toronto.

With 90 per cent of polls reporting, Mr. Ford took almost 49 per cent of the vote, compared to 34 per cent for former Ontario deputy premier George Smitherman and 11 per cent for third-place finisher Joe Pantalone, the current deputy mayor.

From the Globe. How much damage he can do depends on who gets elected to council; my guess is that he won't have enough allies to accomplish most of what he'd like to, but I don't know. Those more familiar with the makeup of council are encouraged to comment.

Edited to add: OK, this looks bad.

Meanwhile, in Waterloo Region, all three cities have reelected their mayors, and Waterloo itself seems to have voted strongly against any formal talks with Kitchener about amalgamation in a referendum. In a separate referendum, they narrowly voted to discontinue the fluoridation of the city's drinking water.

Also notable is that Brenda Halloran is the first Waterloo mayor to be reelected in 16 years. It strikes me that Winnipeg also has a pattern that could use breaking, namely the fact that we haven't thrown out an incumbent mayor since 1956. In two days we'll find out if the pattern will hold for another four...

A guide to Toronto's mayoral candidates

Courtesy of the Star. Some highlights:

Taxes: Ford wants to abolish the land transfer tax, while Smitherman and Pantalone want to keep it. The situation with property taxes is interesting. As noted previously, Smitherman is actually even more aggressive than Ford on this issue - he wants to freeze them, while Ford merely wants to index them to inflation.

Transit: Ford, much like Katz in Winnipeg, wants to tear up the existing plans and renegotiate. Pantalone wants to continue, while Smitherman actually wants to add to existing plans.

Other environmental issues: Both Pantalone and Smitherman scored high here (20 and 18 out of 20 respectively). Ford didn't bother to answer the questionnaire.

Contracting out: Pantalone wants to freeze it; both Ford and Smitherman want to do it. Of the two, Smitherman is arguably worse than Ford, since he is open to contracting out bus routes in addition to garbage and recycling.

Debt: Pantalone figures there are higher priorities, and that the debt can be kept constant. Both Ford and Smitherman want to actively reduce it by selling city assets.

Hiring of staff: None of them advocate massive layoffs. Pantalone wishes to continue the present policy, which is to simply evaluate whether it's necessary to fill a given vacancy. Ford and Smitherman are much more aggressive here, wanting to eliminate 1,500 and 1,300 jobs, respectively, by attrition.

Size of council: Pantalone and Smitherman want to leave well enough alone, while Ford wants to cut it in half.

Looking at it in this way, Smitherman does seem to be somewhat preferable to Ford overall, and I certainly think the venom that some have directed towards those who advocate tactical voting is a bit excessive. Nonetheless, I still think Smitherman would remain mayor for a lot longer than Ford would if elected, and that could be a negative in itself. So I'd still urge progressive Torontonians to hold out for Joe.

More commentary on the Toronto mayoral race

Much as the prospect of teabaggers winning control of the US Congress is a bit worrisome (but see here for some perspective on that), the prospect of someone who is a teabagger in all but name becoming mayor of Canada's largest city is more than a little stomach-churning. But as noted before, not everyone thinks Smitherman is enough of an improvement on Ford to be worthy of support. The Star's Royston James has this to say:

So, before you hold your nose and vote Smitherman, you should ask yourself: What is it about Ford that scares me? Who and what am I voting for? Why am I voting against someone? Because, holding your nose and voting, well, stinks — especially after the vote.

So what are you want from next Monday’s vote?

If your priority is to get someone at city hall who can stand on the international and national stage and represent Toronto — because he speaks well and “looks like a mayor,” then maybe Smitherman gets your vote hands-down. His years as deputy premier were a rehearsal for the role. He is motor mouth.

If your priority is to continue the legacy left by outgoing mayor David Miller — an ethic of growth in city services and civic staff, bike lanes and European-style streetcars, environmental initiatives and making Toronto the greenest city on the planet — then Joe Pantalone is your candidate.

And if you are concerned about city hall spending and the growth of the city’s budget and the perennial fiscal deficit even after hundreds of millions of tax dollars have been added to the ledger, then Ford has earned a penny-pinching reputation.

Now, if you find Ford’s anti-spending policies so repulsive that he must be stopped, then you might be careful with your dalliance with Smitherman, especially if your concern is the diminution or destruction of city services. On that score, both candidates are closer than the Anybody-but-Ford crowd lets on.

From the city budget perspective, Smitherman may even be worse for you.

That sounds strange given what we already know about Ford, but James makes some good points:

First, he advocates a tax freeze in 2011, turning his back on some $60 million he obviously needs. Not even Ford does that.

Second, Smitherman plans to run up to Queen’s Park for a $100 million subsidy to balance the books. Again, he’s alone on that. And he suggests he will get this money even though his budget numbers show the city with a surplus of $50 million. In other words, his friend Dalton will give him $100 million and add to the province’s ballooning deficit so Toronto can net a $50 million surplus.

These two points are relevant because Smitherman intends to spend more on a range of platform promises than either Pantalone or Ford. So, he needs more “savings” to balance the books.

Now on the other side of the coin, of course, is the fact that Ford is so personally offensive. No need to go over the reasons again and again; the guy is ridiculous. And there's no doubt that the next four years will be rather embarrassing for Torontonians if Ford wins (perhaps even worse than Lastman's final term). Nonetheless, I stand by my prediction that if Ford does win he will either serve a single term, or else moderate his behaviour. And in any case, it's not a case of the entire city council being taken over by Ford clones; I'm pretty sure he won't have the votes on council to do all the crazy things he says he wants to do. So all things considered, if I lived in Toronto, I'd feel fine about casting my vote for Pantalone.

Toronto mayoral race now also a dead heat

Perhaps Torontonians are having second thoughts about Ford:

A new poll conducted over Thanksgiving weekend shows a dead heat between Toronto mayoral frontrunners Rob Ford and George Smitherman, with the former deputy premier edging the Etobicoke councillor by one percentage point.

Of the 400 people surveyed in the Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for Newstalk 1010, 31 per cent said they plan to vote for Mr. Smitherman – and 30 per cent supported Mr. Ford. Deputy mayor Joe Pantalone garnered 11 per cent of the vote, while 4 per cent of those polled said they’d vote for Rocco Rossi if the vote were held tomorrow.

From the Globe. I guess the "Ford is scary" message is starting to sink in (the fact that Ford actually is scary might have something to do with it).

In any case, it's worth noting that this is still anyone's race:

The poll also indicated a sizable number of voters are still on the fence, however: A quarter of those polled said they still have no idea whom they’ll vote for come Oct. 25. And while the majority – 54 per cent – of those polled said they intend to cast a ballot on election day, voter intention was highest in Etobicoke, (73 per cent), followed by Toronto (60 per cent), East York (53 per cent), Scarborough (51 per cent) and North York (38 per cent). Mr. Pantalone’s supporters said they’re the most likely to vote, with 72 per cent saying they intend to cast a ballot. He’s followed by those supporting Mr. Smitherman (65 per cent), Mr. Ford (57 per cent) and Mr. Rossi (37 per cent).

The fact that Etobicoke's residents are the most likely to vote might favour Ford; on the other hand the fact that Ford's supporters are less likely to vote than Smitherman's counters this.

By the way, in this post, I somewhat downplayed the evils of Ford. I still more or less stand by that, but it's worth remembering that on environmental issues, Ford and Smitherman are polar opposites:

Mayoral candidates Rob Ford and Rocco Rossi both received failing grades from the Toronto Environmental Alliance because they declined to fill out the green group’s survey.

But the campaigns say they refused because TEA passed out a biased survey.

George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone, meanwhile, both garnered A+ grades.

Source. I might add that Smitherman does have another advantage over Ford -- namely, Torontonians won't have to be quite so embarrassed to be represented by him.

Toronto's day of reckoning approaches

The latest polls still show that Rob Ford has a five point lead over George Smitherman in the race for mayor. Given what an idiot Ford appears to be, this is rather unsettling, and this is no doubt why nominally left-leaning Joe Mihevc has endorsed Smitherman. Nonetheless, this has led to a strongly worded response:

Dear Joe Mihevc,

This election is all about jobs and services, ethics & principles and who we trust to take us through the next four years. For you, it should have been all about the marginalized sectors of Toronto, and how collectively to provide protection for what we all worked so hard to create, protect and then re-create after the provincial Harris/Eves & Toronto Lastman years.

This election is very important for Toronto’s working class, un- and under-employed workers, poor families, new Canadians and senior citizens, all of whom have a lot to lose if Rob Ford or self-identified “compassionate cutter” George Smitherman are elected.

For many of us, neither can be a choice: Door A promises no less than 6,000 jobs eliminated while Door B, your candidate, will see the elimination of 4,000 jobs by attrition. Whether you like it or not, both candidates objectively will destroy the programs and services we all need. Unlike these candidates, we cannot “buy” our way out of the problems we face like wealthy people are able to do.

Telling you how angry, disappointed and betrayed many of us feel doesn’t properly convey the depth of emotions being experienced by community members today.

You made this part of the election ‘all about you’. In three weeks, the election will be over. You may have helped elect a Mayor who will attack our quality of life. Likely you will still have your job, as not much can happen to you in the election at this late date

This endorsement isn’t about principles, ethics, or solidarity. If your candidate is elected, you will be among the chosen inner circle. We, on the other hand, will have to continue to fight for the values, programs and services we all supported.

Can you really wonder, then, why so many are cynical, ‘apathetic’ and disengaged in the election process?

Katie McGovern
Recording & Corresponding Secretary
Local 4400

Now I'm kind of an outsider in this whole thing, having left the province 2½ years ago (and my main source before that was Metro Morning). Nonetheless, I see a lot to agree with in McGovern's letter, though I don't think I'd have worded it so harshly.

The thing is, as noted in that letter, while Ford is a huge jerk, Smitherman doesn't come across as much of an improvement, except with regards to the environment. Now as Audrey McLaughlin once said in a different context, "that's a pretty big except", but my fear of Ford is also tempered by my belief that he probably won't last more than a term; Smitherman, on the other hand, might hold on for as long as he wanted. And if Ford does hold on for multiple terms, it will be by moderating to the point of being no worse than Smitherman would have been. So in the end, I'd probably go ahead and vote for the best candidate, who in this case seems to be Joe Pantalone. On the other hand, I wouldn't be quite as judgemental as McGovern is about people who hold their noses and vote for Smitherman.

Have Torontonians lost their minds?

I'd assumed that Ford's impressive record of saying and doing dumb shit would erode his support. Not so apparently:

Rob Ford has taken a lead in the race for mayor of Toronto, according to the first new poll to be released in two months.

The Etobicoke councillor has the backing of 37.6 per cent of decided voters and a nearly nine-point lead over George Smitherman, who enjoys 28.7 per cent support.

The Pollstra Research poll puts Joe Pantalone at 15.5 per cent and Sarah Thomson at 10.3 per cent; Rocco Rossi has slipped into last place at 7.9 per cent.

Thirty-two per cent of voters remain undecided, the poll found.

From the Globe. What the devil is the matter with those people?

A supremely bad idea

I generally like Joe Pantalone. However, one of the policies he's proposing for his mayoral campaign deserves to be rejected out of hand:

Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone says that, if elected to the top job, he’ll let people vote from their BlackBerry or home computer in 2014, and push the province to allow some non-citizens to help choose the mayor.

From the Star. I understand that he wants to increase voter turnout, but doesn't he remember all the controversy over electronic voting in American elections? And don't forget, part of the reason many people don't vote is that they don't think their vote matters. Such people aren't likely to feel any better about the usefulness of their vote if they figure that the election could be easily rigged, are they?

Additionally (though this is secondary to the main concern) these sorts of things always have teething problems. Centre Wellington experimented with voting by phone in the 2000 election, and the result was a huge fiasco; the lines were overloaded and many people were disenfranchised as a result. It's telling that the township's website no longer seems to have any reference to telephone voting; I guess they've learned their lesson, and Toronto should as well.