The spectre of Internet voting turns up in Manitoba

It seems some municipal officials want to introduce Internet voting:

Plans are already in the works for the next municipal election in 2014 that advance polls in Winnipeg will include the Internet.

"If you want to continue serving the people you serve, you've got to meet their expectations," city clerk Richard Kachur said. "It's also important for the next generation coming up. They use the Internet far more than anyone else. They expect it."

From the Free Press (h/t PolicyFrog). It's a seductive idea, to be sure; even decent folk like Joe Pantalone have advocated it. And it's in use already in some places, but does that mean we should follow their example? I don't see any way of ensuring that the vote isn't rigged by hackers, and even if you could guarantee beyond a reasonable doubt that it couldn't be rigged, it would be a lot harder to convince voters of this. It would undermine the legitimacy of the winner, too. At least now, I can accept that Sam Katz (and Rob Ford, for that matter) won fair and square. I might lament the narrow-mindedness of the voters who put them there, but I can't dispute their legitimacy. But if they had won their positions through Internet voting, a lot of people would be skeptical - perhaps to the point where they wouldn't bother voting next time, since the fix is in. Which is exactly the opposite of what the proponents of Internet voting want. And that's not even counting the fact that some would likely conclude that they ought to try to "un-fix" the next election (i.e. fix it in the other direction).

It's also worth noting that Internet voting could actually worsten the tendency for the poor to be underrepresented at the polls. Laziness spans class boundaries, but if those who can afford a computer and an Internet connection find it easier to vote than those who can't, this will further disenfranchise the poor.

Finally, you have to be suspicious of an idea that is promoted using bogus arguments. And PolicyFrog has found one in the article - U of M political scientist Jared Wesley, who thinks online voting is just grand, tossed out the old chestnut that "more people voted on American Idol than the American president". Sounds shocking, but it isn't true, as Froggy points out:

The 2008 U.S. Election drew over 131 million votes, while the biggest American Idol finale brought in about 100 million.

Furthermore, fans can vote multiple times on Idol. Given that the viewing audience for a finale ranges from 20 million to 30 million, and only a portion of those people actually vote, then it’s clear that waaaaaaaay more people cast a ballot for President than Idol. And don’t even get me started on votes cast by those over the age of 18…

So does anyone still think online voting is necessary or desirable? Fortunately, the city can't implement this without the province's co-operation, and the provincial NDP has shown no interest in this folly to my knowledge.

Vandal appointed to EPC

This is a surprise:

One of Sam Katz's toughest critics on city council has joined the mayor's inner circle as part of an executive policy committee that has three new faces.

St. Boniface Coun. Dan Vandal, an NDP-affiliated councillor who ran against Katz in the race for mayor in 2004, was appointed to EPC on Tuesday evening, as Winnipeg's mayor followed through on an election-night promise to heal wounds between the political left and right in Winnipeg.

Shortly before the inaugural meeting of Winnipeg's 13th city council, Katz appointed 13-year councillor Vandal, sophomore North Kildonan Coun. Jeff Browaty and rookie Charleswood-Tuxedo Coun. Paula Havixbeck to EPC, which approves most civic legislation before it goes to council.

From the Free Press. This is a good thing I suppose, though I wonder how Vandal will fare (remember what happened to Russ Wyatt).

Aftermath

So some of my predictions didn't turn out so well. In retrospect, some of it was predictable (Rod Giesbrecht's role as a spoiler in Elmwood-East Kildonan, for instance). The overall makeup of council hasn't really changed much (in effect, the left lost Elmwood-EK but gained Mynarski). And of course Katz was reelected. And the turnout was high in spite of bad weather, which usually indicates an appetite for change, but here it didn't. So what happened?

I'm not sure, but I suspect that those awful shootings in the North End played a role. Yes, they happened under Katz's watch, but that doesn't matter; the right has been extremely effective in branding themselves as the ones who can solve the problem. They've been so effective in this branding effort that people ignore the evidence when they're sufficiently scared. (For similar reasons, deficits seem to help the right, even when they happen under right wing governments). The high turnout is probably partly explicable by people coming out in hope of voting for Judy, but part of it is people from the suburbs coming out to vote out of fear of Judy. Presumably they think that there'd be a veritable explosion of crime if she occupied the Mayor's office. Whatever...

Some guesses for the municipal election

Bartley Kives, in this Free Press article, makes some predictions about how things will play out tomorrow (about halfway down, though the whole article is worth reading). In some cases I have opinions on the matter myself.

Charleswood-Tuxedo: With seven candidates and no incumbent, this would seem to be about as wide open as it gets. Kives considers Havixbeck and Hannah to be the top contenders. My money would be on Havixbeck, since the Tory machine will be working for her, and when you have that many candidates it is a advantageous to have a lot of volunteers to pull the vote.

Mynarski: Again, we have a freshly vacated ward with a large field of candidates. Here, though, turnout is traditionally low, and thus having a lot of volunteers is even more critical. And the NDP has never had a shortage of volunteers. For this reason, I'm calling this one for Eadie.

Elmwood-East Kildonan: Kives calls it a three way race. I'm inclined to narrow it down to Robinson or Giesbrecht; Steen might have a better chance if he didn't open his mouth. In theory, Robinson should have this in the bag, but Giesbrecht is doing dangerously well. This could go either way.

Old Kildonan: Kives thinks Sharma has the edge; I don't know enough about that race to agree or disagree.

Daniel McIntyre: Kives goes no further than to predict that "one of the three lefties" (Smith, Bellamy, or Gilroy-Price) will win. Myself I'd give the edge to Bellamy, both due to the aforementioned organizational factor and due to the fact that Wolseley seems pretty solidly in his camp (and face it, Wolseley has a higher turnout than the West End). But Smith is not to be underestimated either.

River Heights-Fort Garry: Kives puts this as impossible to predict. To my mind it mostly turns on how annoyed people really are about those traffic circles; if Orlikow loses River Heights he's done for. But this may turn out to be a case of much ado about nothing; I do see a fair number of letters and comments defending the circles. Tough call.

St. Norbert: Kives figures a major upset would be necessary to unseat Swandel, but he considers this a possibility. He implies that this would imply a shift to the left; however, it could equally happen through a generalized shift against incumbents. In that case, his prediction -- that Swandel could only lose in a situation where the right gets severely stomped -- might be unsound. If Swandel and Orlikow are both defeated in an anti-incumbent wave, for instance, the net effect on the balance of power is zero.

St. Charles: This is another race that I know too little to challenge Kives' comments (essentially that Nordman has the edge but that Dobson has a chance).

Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Strangely, Kives lists this as a race where the incumbent could lose, although he thinks it unlikely. Myself, I would have no hesitation about calling it for Gerbasi.

St. James-Brooklands: Kives also lists this as one where there's an outside chance of defeating the incumbent. I call this for Fielding.

Point Douglas, St. Boniface, St. Vital, and Transcona: I can't really argue with Kives' contention that these are "virtually locks", though I don't know enough about St. Vital to say I agree with him on that one either.

OK, but what about the big one? Kives makes no prediction here, but what about me? Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I'm going to call this one for Judy. The thing is, there's a huge force of volunteers supporting the NDP-backed candidates, and most of the votes they pull will go to Judy. In addition, some of their opponents are as well. For instance, regardless of whether Harvey Smith or Keith Bellamy takes Daniel McIntyre, both of them are going to be getting a lot of people out to vote, and nearly all of those folks will vote for Judy. The situation with existing patterns of voter turnout is a bit murkier; in southern and suburban parts of the city, which tend to favour Katz, turnout tends to be higher. On the other hand, among identified supporters, this poll has concluded that Judy's supporters are more committed to actually getting to the polls than Sam's. Naturally, polls can be wrong (see Ford's margin of victory in Toronto for an example) but I think Winnipeg might finally break out of its long cycle of reelecting mayors until they retire (or die). Here's hoping...

Anti-incumbent sentiment strong in much of Ontario

Notwithstanding the fact that Hazel McCallion was reelected with a huge margin (along with her counterparts in Brampton, Oakville, Markham, Richmond Hill and Ajax) there was quite a strong shift against incumbents. Vaughan's mayor, and several veteran councillors, went down to defeat yesterday, and so did the mayors of Burlington, Hamilton, and Oshawa. Five incumbent Toronto councillors, representing the right as well as the left, were defeated. Outside of the 905, the mayors of London, Ottawa, Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay all went down as well.

Now I'd be more than happy to see this pattern repeat itself in Winnipeg tomorrow, but there's something about this that makes me a bit uneasy. The fact that this trend has victims across the political spectrum suggests that instead of voting for a clear platform (or even against one) they're voting against anyone they perceive as being too experienced. Under this mentality, once a politician gains sufficient experience to figure out how to do the job, he or she should be gotten rid of immediately. It's no coincidence that "vote out all incumbents" is a common cry from teabaggers, who would like nothing better than to insure that governments are unable to actually do anything. And consider this -- teabaggers are always going on about the need for term limits, but balk at campaign spending limits. Apparently it's better to stop someone from running at all, than to limit the amount they can spend on their campaign. And guess who that tends to favour?

So tomorrow, Winnipeggers, I'd like you to vote out Sam Katz, but don't do it simply because he's the incumbent. Do it because he sucks, and because Judy will be good.

Katz in the lead again, but support soft -- poll

The latest poll has incumbent Sam Katz back in the lead:

Mayor Sam Katz has a six-point lead on Judy Wasylycia-Leis as Winnipeg's mayoral race enters the home stretch, but a more committed core of support for the challenger suggests election night may be a nail-biter.

Katz enjoys the support of 38 per cent of Winnipeg voters while Wasylycia-Leis has 32 per cent, according to a Leger Marketing telephone survey commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CBC News.

Source. While this might be good news for Katz, there's a complication:

Survey respondents were asked to rate their interest in the race, on a scale of one to 10. The average interest for a Wasylycyia-Leis supporter was 6.5 out of 10, while Katz supporters averaged 5.4 out of 10, Scholz said.

Furthermore, 25 per cent of Wasylycia-Leis supporters rated their interest at nine or 10 out of 10, compared to only nine per cent of Katz supporters who did so.

"Her voters are significantly more interested in this election than his voters," Scholz said.

"That means her voters are more likely to come out than his are. If there's anything to prevent them, such as bad weather or a TV show, there's a good chance he's not going to get the vote out."

So, if Judy's campaign is able to keep things moving (not to mention the campaigns of council candidates who are onside with her) she has an excellent chance of winning.

Katz starting to panic?

Our esteemed mayor has failed to show up for a debate, and he's clogging citizens' voicemail with allegations that Judy is going to take your house away. Gee, do you think he's worried yet?

Katz's lead vanishes

For the first time, the incumbent has a serious fight on his hands:

THE race for mayor of Winnipeg is now a statistical dead heat. Incum­bent Sam Katz has lost the polling lead he held all year and is now even with challenger Judy Wasylycia-Leis.

According to a Probe Research poll conducted in late September exclu­sively for the Free Press, Wasylycia-Leis is the preferred choice of 50 per cent of Winnipeg voters. Katz sits three points behind with 47 per cent support and Brad Gross and Rav Gill garnered the remaining three per cent. The mar­gin of error for these results is 4.7 per cent.

From the Free Press. Suddenly, Katz looks like he could actually lose, and in any case the campaign will be a lot more interesting from this point on.

Wasylycia-Leis presents environmental platform

A lot of this is just basic common sense, but by Winnipeg standards that's pretty darn good:

The former Winnipeg North MP pledged Friday if she's elected mayor next month, the city will offer small environmental-project grants to community groups, share the cost of placing bike racks outside of businesses, increase the tree-pruning cycle, create a local food-policy council and re-establish a formal environment committee at city council.

She also promised to fast-track the implementation of existing city environmental studies and reiterated her pledge to complete the Southwest Rapid Transit Corridor as a busway - and begin a second rapid-transit route, most likely from downtown to Transcona - within her first term as mayor.

From the Free Press. What's more, she is willing to talk about costs:

Small grants for schools or community groups wishing to create green rooftops or green alleyways would be capped at $1,000 per grant. No more than $75,000 would be spent on this program, she said.

Cost-sharing the placement of bike racks would cost $50,000. And increasing the tree-pruning schedule from the current 13-year cycle - and providing more grants to neighbourhood tree-banding projects - would add another $300,000 to Winnipeg's operating budget.

Interestingly, although the latest poll has Sam leading Judy 34%-20%, fully 40% of those polled are undecided. So this one really could go either way.

Katz drops the ball on the mosquito issue

Our illustrious mayor has been doing his darnedest to make political hay out of this issue. The city loves to point to the province's licencing requirements as the reason for the controversial buffer zones around properties whose owners don't want to be fogged with malathion. With all that in mind, you'd think Katz would love a win-win solution, one which would control mosquitoes without the use of malathion (and hence the need for buffer zones). Not so:

A plan to fill in low-lying areas of Winnipeg to reduce mosquito-larvae habitat was axed last year during a round of job cuts designed to help the city maintain a balanced budget.

In 2009, the city laid off 41 professionals and middle managers and trimmed 42 other full-time equivalent positions from its 8,300-member workforce as part of chief administrative officer Glen Laubenstein's effort to find $11.5 million worth of "efficiencies" in the public service.

At the time, Mayor Sam Katz lauded the cuts as part of an effort to balance the city's $785-million operating budget without raising property taxes.

One of the jobs, however, was the vacant position of "source-reduction" engineer -- a full-time staffer responsible for identifying low-lying areas of Winnipeg where mosquito larvae develop and then filling them in to reduce the amount of standing water during rainy periods.

The job was proposed in 2005 as part of a mosquito-fighting strategy council approved during Katz's rookie term as mayor. Money was placed in the budget for the job in 2007, but the position was never filled, according to city budget documents and departmental business plans.

From the Free Press. Considering the controversy around fogging, the expense, and the fact that at best it only provides a few days' relief, you 'd think preventative measures would be a no-brainer. Seemingly not, though; presumably fogging is the preferred method because it's visible. Fogging is a way of being seen to be dealing with the mosquito problem; filling in low-lying areas is a way of actually dealing with the problem, but doesn't get the publicity (and hence, Katz no doubt figures, the votes).

What the heck is Sam Katz doing?

Ever wonder why our illustrious mayor is suddenly big on light rail transit? Don't forget, one of the first things he did on assuming office was to cancel his predecessor's rapid transit plans, and then he grudgingly went ahead with BRT. Now, with BRT half-built, he wants to change gears again and move towards light rail. It seems the Free Press is confused by this too:

If city council endorses Mayor Sam Katz's bizarre insistence that it's light rail or nothing for Winnipeg, there will still be time and opportunity for everyone to come to their senses and reverse course. Unfortunately, however, there is no evidence the mayor and his inner circle are interested in listening to reason. It's damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead -- to where, nobody knows.

The mayor is hanging his hat on a consultant's report that claims light rail is not nearly as expensive as previously thought, and that it offers additional benefits in terms of the environment, community development and mobility. He also has faith the private sector will help finance the project, with aid from a special fund in Ottawa, but it's all just a hope and a prayer at this point.

If history teaches us anything, it's that cost projections for large projects in a faraway future are always wrong; but that's not really the point Mr. Katz and his crew are missing. The issue before council next week, when it votes on the mayor's program, is whether the city is needlessly and foolishly losing time and possibly money for a perfectly good plan for a southwest rapid transit corridor.

Source. Either Katz is a colossal idiot, or he's diabolically clever and is trying to sabotage rapid transit entirely so as to focus on stuff like this. I'll leave it to the reader to decide which.

For what it's worth, I'd love to see light rail transit here, but it seems a lot more realistic to build BRT first (especially since it's partially finished now) and use it as a stepping stone. It seems to be working well in similarly-sized Ottawa.

Taking government secrecy to a new level

As you probably know, Winnipeg's esteemed mayor and his buddies on EPC are trying to get city council to agree to a wastewater treatment contract with Veolia Canada. Now it's pretty common for a government to keep the fine print of such contracts a secret from the public. This isn't good enough for Katz and his cronies, though; they're keeping it secret from themselves:

It's a deal so secret not even the mayor has seen the financial fine print.

It locks city hall into a 30-year contract with a multinational mega-firm and marks a big shift in policy.

Now critics from the left and the right are calling on councillors to step back from the brink of a $1.2-billion deal with Veolia Canada to privatize the renovation and parts of the operation of two city sewage treatment plants.

Council votes on the deal Wednesday.

"The partnership proposes to reduce rates and improve results for taxpayers so that's a good thing," said Colin Craig of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. "However, councillors should ask to see the final contract before it's approved. Like they say, the devil is in the details."

Craig said as much of the deal should also be made public as possible without violating Veolia's business interests.

Several left-leaning groups -- the Council of Canadians, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and the union representing city workers -- agree, saying Veolia's reputation is "less than stellar" and serious questions about the contract remain unanswered.

From the Free Press. When the CTF agrees with the Council of Canadians and the CCPA, you know there must be something badly wrong somewhere...

Winnipeg's worst kept secret is out

Well, any pretense of secrecy evaporated when she filed her papers yesterday, but the big announcement was today. Wasylycia-Leis was introduced by Sharon Carstairs, and gave a fiery campaign speech, pulling no punches in criticizing Sam Katz. There were an awful lot of people there, among them former mayor Bill Norrie, onetime mayoral candidate Kaj Hasselriis, councillors Jenny Gerbasi and Harvey Smith, and Family Services minister Gord Mackintosh. She's got a wide base, and hopefully will be able to have a solid campaign. The thing that could win this for her, though, is that there are likely to be a lot of people willing to volunteer on her campaign. Given the typically low turnouts in municipal elections, getting the vote out will be crucial, and volunteers make all the difference.

Judy's in the race

Judy Wasylycia-Leis, as expected, has filed her papers to run for Mayor. Interestingly, none other than Sharon Carstairs is going to serve as her campaign co-chair. It's going to be a heck of a campaign for sure. It will also be interesting to see who else shows up at her official campaign launch (tomorrow at 11:30 AM at the Tower Atrium at the Forks, in case anyone's wondering).

Wyatt sees the writing on the wall

Russ Wyatt is not going to run for Mayor:

Winnipeg’s mayoral race is shaping up to be straight-ahead battle between Sam Katz and Judy Wasylycia-Leis, as Transcona Coun. Russ Wyatt bowed out on Friday and Elmwood Coun. Lillian Thomas is expected to follow suit next week.

It was a natural move; it makes sense for him to get out now that Judy Wasylicia-Leis is expected to run. Curtis at Endless Spin Cycle points out that in the poll that Probe did for the Free Press Wyatt got only 7% support, compared to 36% for Wasylicia-Leis.

Wasylycia-Leis steps down

Well, it was widely expected, but it's now official. So far she hasn't declared her candidacy for mayor, but this is widely expected as well. I'd love to see her beat Sam; we'll have to see how it goes. Either way, big shoes to fill.

Winnipeg mayoral poll

OK, this is old news (hey, I was taking a break, so sue me) but this past Saturday a poll came out in the Free Press on the declared and hypothetical candidates for mayor, with the following results:

Sam Katz: 51%

Judy Wasylycia-Leis: 36%

Russ Wyatt: 7%

Dave Angus: 5%

Lillian Thomas: 2%

Hmm. Seeing that brings to mind this article from the Uniter a couple of weeks back:

Normally, I would be overjoyed to hear that Judy Wasylycia-Leis is even considering a run for mayor. Having met her on a few occasions, I know that she is unbelievably qualified to run this city. But as history shows, anyone taking on the incumbent faces an uphill battle. Only once in Winnipeg’s history has a sitting mayor been defeated, and in the last election Katz won by more than double the vote of his nearest rival.

On the other hand, if anyone can defeat Katz, Wasylycia-Leis has a better chance than most. Should she run? I don't know.

Incidentally, yesterday's Hansard includes this intriguing tidbit (scroll down to Kevin's question about the community health centre):

Mr. Kevin Lamoureux (Inkster): Mr. Speaker, my question is for the Minister of Health.

For well over 30 years the Nor'West Community Health Centre has provided valuable services to thousands of residents in Winnipeg's North End, and, in fact, beyond.

Mr. Speaker, there's been an expectation for the last number of years that there would be an access centre which would be able to expand medical services to the residents of Winnipeg's North End, and there's a sense of frustration that the government is once again overlooking the needs of Winnipeg's North End.

My question to the Minister of Health: What can she tell us today, given the budget documents that have been released, that could provide some encouragement to the residents of the Winnipeg north in regards to this access centre that they have been promised for a number of years already?

My emphasis in the last paragraph, of course. I can't help but think someone is itching for a by-election.

Brief update, and interesting article

Well, it hasn't been too busy here, primarily because I've been busy with other things (the Concordia by-election, watching the Olympics, etc). I did come across an interesting story in the Carman Valley Leader though on the Youth for Christ controversy:

One question not being asked is if there's federal money going to YFC, what's left for much needed projects in rural Manitoba?

Anyhow, Martin has a reputation of being something of a hothead and is quick with the verbal jabs. While some of his comments regarding Christianity in general were off the mark, there's an important point being ignored.

That is many other community centres in Winnipeg, are starved for funding and are often turned away by Katz's city hall cohorts.

That $3.1 million would go a long way to rejuvenating a number of inner city facilities in need of help.

If you don't care for that point, then the $3.1 million would be about two year's worth police helicopter fuel and maintenance.

And let's face it, Martin hit the nail on the head when he pointed there would be widespread outrage if it was "Youth for Allah" slurping at the public trough.

Source. Yes, you read that right -- a Sun Media-owned paper, in the heart of Manitoba's Bible Belt, is defending Pat Martin. Obviously I agree with them, but it's interesting.

Wasylycia-Leis considers running for mayor

Rumours have been flying about this for a while, and now it's being reported in the press:

The race for mayor in Winnipeg just got a little busier, as federal NDP health critic Judy Wasylycia-Leis says she's thinking about running against Sam Katz this fall.

The Winnipeg North MP is mulling the prospect of returning from Ottawa to challenge Katz in the October civic election.

"A lot of people have been raising it with me and asking me to consider running. I'm certainly going to give it some thought," she said Wednesday.

An MP since 1997, Wasylycia-Leis, 58, served as a Manitoba MLA from 1986 to 1993 and held a pair of cabinet posts under Howard Pawley's provincial NDP government. But she has never held municipal office in Winnipeg and concedes she did not consider running for mayor before she was approached in late 2009.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. While I think Wasylycia-Leis would make an outstanding mayor, I don't think she should run right now. Why? For one very simple reason, conveniently pointed out in the article -- it's been over fifty years since an incumbent mayor was defeated in this city, and as sad as this sounds, Katz is popular enough that the pattern is unlikely to be broken this time round. So why would I want a good MP to step down, only to face likely defeat in a run for the mayor's office? And the fact that Lillian Thomas is already in the race seals the deal, as there would be a split in the left of centre vote.

What the left should be doing is focusing on getting more good people on council. That way, maybe Katz would get frustrated and not run again, whereupon Wasylycia-Leis or another worthy candidate could run and actually have a good chance of winning.

Lillian Thomas for mayor??

Apparently she's going to run:

Veteran city councillor Lillian Thomas will run for mayor in Winnipeg's 2010 civic election.

Thomas (Elmwood-East Kildonan) made the announcement Wednesday morning, saying her 20 years of experience qualifies her for the top job.

The 60-year-old said her frustration with recent council decisions endorsed by Mayor Sam Katz spurred her decision to run.

Source. Her heart is in the right place, and her voting record on council is satisfactory, but I can't help thinking that this is simply because she trusts Jenny and Dan and votes the way they do. That's OK as it goes, but knowing who to follow does not a mayor make. But then, I don't think it really matters who the left puts forward this time. Katz is expected to run again, and Winnipeg hasn't voted out an incumbent mayor in living memory.