Whither the Manitoba Liberals?

Or is that "wither"? They certainly aren't in very good shape right now. And now they're about to lose half their caucus when Kevin Lamoureaux steps down to run federally in Winnipeg North. Dan Lett thinks the party is in the worst shape it's been for quite some time:

How bad are things for the Grits? The most recent Probe-Free Press poll showed the Liberals with just 11 per cent support. It is not unusual for the Liberals to soar between elections into the high teens of support, only to fall back. Now, Liberals can't even count on these inter-election thrills.

Collaterally, Lamoureux's departure impacts the outcome of the next provincial election.

The NDP, under new Premier Greg Selinger, continue to hold a slim lead in opinion polls over Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives. The Tories desperately need a surge in Liberal popularity to eat away at NDP support, particularly in Winnipeg where the NDP wins most of their seats.

The loss of Lamoureux is bad enough. But it's even worse when you consider the Liberals likely won't retain the seat with another candidate. Lamoureux won this riding on his own, in spite of a troubled Liberal brand. Without him, the NDP will win that seat back.

There are two Liberals in the Manitoba legislature. Later this year or early next year, there will be only one. And unless there is a dramatic change in fortune, after October 2011 it is very likely there will be none.

From the point of view of an NDP supporter, this is a godsend, although if they win a couple more majority governments it will start to get embarrassing, kind of like the Alberta Tories.

On a side note, it seems kind of amusing to view Lamoureux as the Liberals' biggest asset, but he does have a certain appeal for his constituents. Having met him I can attest to the fact that he's actually very friendly and polite in person, though his conduct in the House is the source of a lot of mirth.

Manitoba NDP back on top: poll

A new Probe Research/Free Press poll puts the NDP back at the top of the polls by a narrow margin:

NDP 42 per cent

Tories 39 per cent

Liberals 11 per cent

The province-wide omnibus telephone survey was taken between March 8 to 25 among a random and representative sampling of 1,003 Manitoba adults. The results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Thing is, the margin of error appears to be greater than the gap between the parties (though rounding might figure in the published results), so the NDP can't rest easy just yet. And another thing stands out:

Probe found that outside Winnipeg, fully one-half of rural voters back the PCs (51 per cent, up from 49 per cent in December), while support for the NDP has slipped from 39 per cent to 32 per cent.

In vote-rich Winnipeg, the NDP continues to have the support of 49 per cent of decided voters (down slightly from 52 per cent in December), while the PCs now sit at 32 per cent support (up two per cent from December) and the Liberals remain unchanged at 13 per cent. There are 57 seats in the Manitoba legislature: The NDP has 36 seats, the PCs 19 and the Liberals two.

In the short term, this is good news for the NDP, since a decline in rural support won't cost them very many seats (they don't hold very many of those seats anyway). However, if the Liberals start to surge back, things could change considerably. Fortunately, I doubt Jon Gerrard is the guy to do that.

Also, the timing of the poll is unfortunate, since it straddles last Tuesday's budget. I'd be interested to see the results of a poll conducted entirely after the budget came down, to see if it had an impact on public opinion.

"Steady as she goes" pays off

Manitoba's NDP government is again well on top of the latest poll:

From a dead heat to no contest.

The provincial New Democratic Party regained a 10-point lead in voter support in recent weeks after running neck-in-neck with the Conservatives in December, a new poll conducted for the Free Press concluded.

The omnibus survey from Probe Research found support at 46 per cent for Premier Gary Doer's NDP, compared to 36 per cent for the Tories under Hugh McFadyen. Jon Gerrard's Liberals landed 13 per cent support.

"It's really more like what we have been seeing for all this time," said Probe Research president Scott MacKay. After the blip in December, support for each party now is roughly the same as it was a year ago, he said.

In December, the Conservatives looked to be on the upswing, coming within two percentage points of the NDP and surging in popularity outside Winnipeg.

Pollsters suspected NDP popularity took a hit in rural Manitoba over the party's ban on further hog-barn construction.

But the Tories appeared to have lost December's gains in the latest numbers, with the NDP on the upswing after recent byelection victories in The Pas and Elmwood.

The premier's popularity doesn't seem to be flagging: Doer had the approval of two thirds of voters.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. I'm still pleasantly surprised when this happens; sure, the province is in good shape, but so was Saskatchewan under Lorne Calvert, and that didn't seem to help the NDP electorally. The fact that the opposition parties lack effective leadership probably has something to do with the results here.

Still, it's good to see that social democracy remains a going concern in this country.