Suburbanites carry the day in Winnipeg North

Kevin Lamoureux is good at winning elections, if nothing else:

Kevin Lamoureux has formed a second beachhead for the federal Liberals in Manitoba.

The spunky former Inkster MLA won the Winnipeg North byelection Monday night, seizing a longtime NDP stronghold and giving Michael Ignatieff's Grits a big morale boost in the process.

Lamoureux earned 7,303 votes compared with 6,508 for the NDP's Kevin Chief in a race that literally went back and forth all evening. All 153 polls had reported by about 9:50 p.m., and advance votes and institutional votes were also tallied.

Conservative candidate Julie Javier finished third with 1,645 votes.

From the Free Press. Naturally Chief carried the traditional North End, while Lamoureux dominated the more suburban parts of the riding. I'm not entirely sure what it is about Lamoureux that appeals to such people, but then I don't understand suburbanites generally.

Whither the Manitoba Liberals?

Or is that "wither"? They certainly aren't in very good shape right now. And now they're about to lose half their caucus when Kevin Lamoureaux steps down to run federally in Winnipeg North. Dan Lett thinks the party is in the worst shape it's been for quite some time:

How bad are things for the Grits? The most recent Probe-Free Press poll showed the Liberals with just 11 per cent support. It is not unusual for the Liberals to soar between elections into the high teens of support, only to fall back. Now, Liberals can't even count on these inter-election thrills.

Collaterally, Lamoureux's departure impacts the outcome of the next provincial election.

The NDP, under new Premier Greg Selinger, continue to hold a slim lead in opinion polls over Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives. The Tories desperately need a surge in Liberal popularity to eat away at NDP support, particularly in Winnipeg where the NDP wins most of their seats.

The loss of Lamoureux is bad enough. But it's even worse when you consider the Liberals likely won't retain the seat with another candidate. Lamoureux won this riding on his own, in spite of a troubled Liberal brand. Without him, the NDP will win that seat back.

There are two Liberals in the Manitoba legislature. Later this year or early next year, there will be only one. And unless there is a dramatic change in fortune, after October 2011 it is very likely there will be none.

From the point of view of an NDP supporter, this is a godsend, although if they win a couple more majority governments it will start to get embarrassing, kind of like the Alberta Tories.

On a side note, it seems kind of amusing to view Lamoureux as the Liberals' biggest asset, but he does have a certain appeal for his constituents. Having met him I can attest to the fact that he's actually very friendly and polite in person, though his conduct in the House is the source of a lot of mirth.

My suspicions about Kevin Lamoureaux prove true...

In this entry I speculated that Lamoureux's slip of the tongue where he spoke of "the residents of Winnipeg North" might indicate that he has aspirations to run for Judy Wasylycia-Leis' seat if and when she vacates it to run for mayor. Well, it seems I was right:

Manitoba Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux said he'll seek his party's nomination in Winnipeg North if Wasylycia-Leis leaves.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. Could he win? I'd like to think not, but some people familiar with that riding think he could.

Winnipeg mayoral poll

OK, this is old news (hey, I was taking a break, so sue me) but this past Saturday a poll came out in the Free Press on the declared and hypothetical candidates for mayor, with the following results:

Sam Katz: 51%

Judy Wasylycia-Leis: 36%

Russ Wyatt: 7%

Dave Angus: 5%

Lillian Thomas: 2%

Hmm. Seeing that brings to mind this article from the Uniter a couple of weeks back:

Normally, I would be overjoyed to hear that Judy Wasylycia-Leis is even considering a run for mayor. Having met her on a few occasions, I know that she is unbelievably qualified to run this city. But as history shows, anyone taking on the incumbent faces an uphill battle. Only once in Winnipeg’s history has a sitting mayor been defeated, and in the last election Katz won by more than double the vote of his nearest rival.

On the other hand, if anyone can defeat Katz, Wasylycia-Leis has a better chance than most. Should she run? I don't know.

Incidentally, yesterday's Hansard includes this intriguing tidbit (scroll down to Kevin's question about the community health centre):

Mr. Kevin Lamoureux (Inkster): Mr. Speaker, my question is for the Minister of Health.

For well over 30 years the Nor'West Community Health Centre has provided valuable services to thousands of residents in Winnipeg's North End, and, in fact, beyond.

Mr. Speaker, there's been an expectation for the last number of years that there would be an access centre which would be able to expand medical services to the residents of Winnipeg's North End, and there's a sense of frustration that the government is once again overlooking the needs of Winnipeg's North End.

My question to the Minister of Health: What can she tell us today, given the budget documents that have been released, that could provide some encouragement to the residents of the Winnipeg north in regards to this access centre that they have been promised for a number of years already?

My emphasis in the last paragraph, of course. I can't help but think someone is itching for a by-election.