The lights all went out in Massachusetts...

Scott Brown has been elected to the Senate:

Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday in what is being called an epic upset for the Democratic Party.

Brown led by 52 per cent to 47 percent with all but 3 percent of precincts counted.

Democrat Edward Kennedy held the seat for almost 47 years before dying of brain cancer in August. Before that, his brother John held it for a decade.

Not only has Brown broken the Democrats' stranglehold, but his win also puts at risk the cause to which Ted Kennedy devoted his life.

Brown has vowed to kill the very thing Ted Kennedy lived for and President Barack Obama dearly covets — a form of universal health care.

Source. This is not good news for the Obama administration, for sure. How dramatic the effects of this are still remain to be seen, but it could get ugly. Of course, Brown won't have a long career, as kos points out:

Either Scott Brown alienates ideologically rigid Teabaggers by casting votes with Democrats in order to shore up his standing at home; or

He votes in lockstep with the rest of his party and becomes the nation's most unpopular senator.

One or the other is inevitable. Maybe both.

Which way this goes probably makes little difference to Brown's chances of getting reelected (slim), but it makes a big difference how damaging this is. If Brown votes against a filibuster, this minimalist health care package might actually be passed before the midterm elections. Unfortunately, I think the other outcome is more likely, and that the package will be delayed until fall, then die entirely when the Democrats lose their majority, as I expect they will.

Do-or-die day for the Democrats

Who could have imagined the Democrats having trouble in Massachusetts? Well, today a by-election (or as the Americans call them, a "special election") is being held to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Ted Kennedy. And it's possible that they could actually lose:

The special election being held today to fill Mr. Kennedy's Senate seat, which is too close to call, is a stinging verdict on President Barack Obama's first year in office. If Democrat Martha Coakley loses - or barely scrapes by - Mr. Obama will bear the blame and the consequences will reverberate for the rest of his term.

The Massachusetts race also offers voters across the country a taste of what to expect this fall, when midterm elections will be held for all 435 seats in U.S. House of Representatives and more than a third of those in the 100-seat Senate. Gone from the Democratic pitch is the message of hope and empowerment that fuelled Mr. Obama's 2008 campaign. In its place are eerie attack ads and warnings of the dark days that a Republican win would bring.

From the Globe and Mail. If this happens, it could cripple Obama's administration, since the Democrats would lose their 60% majority in the Senate that they need to stop a filibuster. This would mean that the health care plan would probably collapse; all that the Republicans need is to delay it until the midterm elections. Worse, it could be damaging to efforts to minimize climate change. And in any case it could seriously damage Obama's chance of reelection in 2012. Gwynne Dyer's fear that Obama could be the next LBJ might well bear fruit. How does "President Mike Huckabee" sound to you? Maybe "President Nehemiah Scudder"?