News roundup, 13 Aug 2026

- This week's Democratic primaries have had mixed results for leftwing candidates. In Minnesota, sitting lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan soundly defeated establishment candidate Angie Craig, while climate activist William Lawrence won the primary for a House seat in Michigan. On the other hand, Francesca Hong was narrowly defeated in the primary for Wisconsin governor by centrist David Crowley.

- Winnipeg city councillor Russ Wyatt is facing new charges of sexual assault and related crimes distinct from other similar charges laid earlier this year. In both cases he has also been charge with administering a "noxious thing", i.e. drugging the victims.

- A new poll in Alberta has found that 52% of respondents would have voted in favour of a ban on coal mining on the eastern slopes of the Rockies had the question been allowed onto the ballot. Of course the usual caveats about "shy Tories" apply here.

- Environment Canada has adopted a new system for its severe weather alerts that's supposed to take a more granular look at the weather in the hope of reducing false positives. The embedded video does a good job of explaining; I guess we'll have a better idea of how it works after a few storms. 

- A French vintner has arranged solar panels in a five metre high canopy over his vineyard; interestingly, energy production was actually a secondary reason for doing so. The main reason is to protect the crop from excessive heat and hail. He's paying a price for this, though - he's not allowed to call it cognac, since 2002, France's strict appellation d’origine contrôlée laws prohibit the application of a regional label to any wine grown under cover, so it has to be sold as generic wine without geographical indication. While the country's National Institute of Origin and Quality (INAO) has expressed willingness to look at exceptions to the rule, some appelations have already explicitly excluded agrivoltaics from their own specifications, citing concerns about damage to the landscape; there are concerns about the effect of the visual impact on tourism. In any case, the French have a concept called terroir that assumes that such changes will have an impact on the wine quality, and this is a huge factor in these laws. Given how much climate change is already locked in, though, they may need to adjust these rules to allow for adaptation, or else face the extinction of many vintages.

News roundup, 11 Aug 2026

- Water levels in the Danube River are now so low due to drought that the wrecks of warships scuttled by the Nazis during WWII are resurfacing. More seriously, the situation is impacting irrigation as well as power generation.

- The Launchpad, a yacht owned by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, apparently failed to respond to a call for assistance as required by maritime law. A skiff that had run out of fuel had made a mayday call; its occupants were rescued by a cruise ship despite the fact that Zuckerberg's yacht was closer. A representative for Zuckerberg claims that the crew of the Launchpad initially didn't hear the call and that by the time they did, the cruise ship had already responded.

- Leftwing candidates will again be challenging the Democratic establishment in primaries this week. Francesca Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is leading in the polls for the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor against establishment choice David Crowley, while Minnesota's left-leaning lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan is facing the more centrist House member Angie Craig in the primary for the Senate seat vacated by Tina Smith.

- There are now a total of 11 candidates in the running for mayor of Winnipeg in this fall's municipal election. The latest person to enter the race is Brad Gross, a realtor notorious for having the buildings he's listed burn down. These include the Sutherland and Manwin hotels as well as a Main Street apartment building. Some folks on Reddit also think Winnipeg Sun owner and former Tory MLA Kevin Klein is considering a run, based on the fact that they're suddenly getting polled on his potential candidacy.

- Manitoba Hydro CEO Allan Danroth's claim before the Public Utilities Board that new gas turbines are essential to maintain a reliable supply, already disputed by critics, is being further called into question with revelations that the existing Brandon gas plant underperforms during cold weather. As I've indicated before, Danroth previously worked for private energy companies in Alberta, so there's a good chance that he has friends and investments in that province's natural gas industry. I do hope the PUB digs deeper into these matters.

News roundup, 30 July 2026

- A tornado watch was issued for the city of Thompson yesterday, meaning that conditions created the potential for tornadoes to develop. While tornadoes are not uncommon in southern Manitoba, it's quite unusual that far north.

- The US has launched a new wave of attacks on Iran following Iranian strikes on American bases in Jordan and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This likely reduces the chance of Trump being able to get fuel prices down in time for the midterms; how that will impact the elections remains to be seen.

- The union representing WestJet flight attendants has issued a 72 hour strike notice, meaning a walkout could occur as soon as Sunday if a deal isn't reached. The airline responded by issuing a 72 hour lockout notice.

- A number of "centrist" Democrats (who would be considered moderate rightwingers in most functioning democracies) are questioning their commitment to the party as leftwing candidates keep winning primaries. Longtime Democratic consultant James Carville even brought up the possibility of a split in the party.

- A man who tried to help a woman suffering from an apparent drug overdose in a Winnipeg park was stabbed by her companion for his trouble. The woman and her would-be rescuer were taken to hospital; a suspect is in custody.

- A man charged in a spree of theft and vandalism in Winnipeg's Crescentwood neighbourhood has been denied bail. The judge issuing the decision says this is because of his lengthy criminal history; while I think it's reasonable to deny bail under the circumstances, one can't help but wonder if the affluence of the neighbourhood where he ran amok had something to do with the decision.

- Research at McGill University has found that large stands of aspen can make a forest more resistant to wildfires. They tend to have higher moisture content, and their leaves tend to be higher off the ground, reducing the risk of a crown fire. Unfortunately the forestry industry hates aspen due to it competing with more commercially valuable species, and sprays forests with herbicides to control it.

News roundup, 2 July 2026

- Russia, despite being one of the world's largest oil producers, is experiencing fuel supply issues as a result of the latest wave of Ukrainian strikes on refineries. The Putin regime has outlawed the export of gasoline and jet fuel and is considering importing these products from elsewhere. The impact on public opinion in Russia may be significant, but the extent to which this will matter is unclear. Even many critics of the regime remain in favour of the war, they just don't think Putin is doing a good enough job fighting it. Russia has, of course, retaliated on a large scale for the latest intrusions, killing 18 people and causing widespread damage in Kyiv.

- Still on the subject of great powers getting in over their heads, the US attack on Iran has led many of America's allies to question whether it's such a great idea to host bases that might become targets of counterattacks. This could significantly impact their ability to "project power".

- A tornado struck in the Rural Municipality of Rossburn in western Manitoba on Sunday night, destroying a house. The next day, another tornado struck in the affluent suburban Winnipeg neighbourhood of Whyte Ridge on Monday evening, also destroying one house and damaging several others. Torrential rain also caused some flooding in Brandon and Dauphin; the latter city has declared a state of emergency, as has the town of Swan River. No injuries have been reported, however.

- Brian Mayes, who has represented St. Vital on Winnipeg's city council since 2011, has announced that he is not running again this fall. He leaves behind a mixed legacy; he was progressive in some ways, and definitely very responsive to his constituents' wants, but that latter point is also part of what was wrong with him; whenever there was a tension between the desires of his NIMBY constituents and the needs of the city as a whole (e.g. on infill housing), the NIMBYs tended to win out.

- Establishment Democrats are less than pleased with the recent success of leftwingers in Democratic primaries. Letitia James, the attorney general of New York State, went so far as to claim that some of the candidates endorsed by NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani "do not understand the politics of New York City"; if that were true, though, you wouldn't expect them to have been as successful as they in fact have. Meanwhile Democratic House member Greg Meeks said that "if you’re a socialist, you’re not a Democrat". Ironically, people like James and Meeks are the first to get angry at third party campaigns (not without some cause given how badly locked in the two-party system is in that country), but in their mind such people should only work within the party so long as they don't actually succeed there. The most charitable interpretation of these bleatings is that they're scared that leftwing Democrats might gain a national profile that will scare off swing voters, but that seems like a stretch. More likely they're scared of what will become of AIPAC funds.

News roundup, 18 March 2026

- Pete Hegseth, in a press briefing, made the flippant remark "We will keep pushing, keep advancing. No quarter, no mercy for our enemies". The thing is, the very act of someone near the top of the chain of command saying this may be a violation of American law going back to the Civil War, not to mention international law. 

- Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center in the US, has resigned, saying that he "cannot in good conscience" back the war on Iran.

- The partial government shutdown in the US and resulting shortage of TSA security screeners means that some smaller airports may have to close, just in time for Spring Break. That could get interesting for Florida businesspeople who gleefully supported Trump until now.

- The Israel question is starting to become an issue in Democratic primaries. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is spending huge amounts of money on primary campaigns, but there seems to be a generational shift that has caught AIPAC off guard.

- New polling from Leger suggests that 60% of the electorate says that the province is on the wrong track, but a strong plurality (48%) would still vote for the UCP if an election were held now. I guess as long as being on the wrong track is worse for women, ethnic minorities and LGBT* folks than it is for straight white dudes, Albertans are fine with it.

- Speaking of the UCP, their former candidate Caylan Ford, who had to exit the race after some of her comments came to light, is trying to sue the news outlets that reported on said comments, including the CBC, the Toronto Star, and Press Progress. A lawyer for the Broadbent Institute, which operates Press Progress, has pointed out that "you cannot be defamed by your own words". I should hope the courts will agree, but don't worry about Ford, she should be fine; all she needs is a GiveSendGo campaign to raise enough money from the rubes to more than cover her legal bills.

News roundup, 29 Aug 2025

- The Democrats are looking to borrow a page from the Republicans' tactical playbook by getting dark money to fund influencers. It's an understandable move, but it shows just how rotten the American political system has gotten when they have to stoop to that level. In any case, it's probably too late now; the US is going to need some pretty serious upheaval in order to get rid of the current regime. Once fascists get elected, it's almost impossible to get rid of them by democratic means, and getting that country back on track is probably going to require breaking a lot of eggs.

- While the fact that China is still building coal plants is definitely not good, the overall rate at which the country is decarbonizing appears to outweigh the impact of those plants. This is somewhat reassuring if true, though not enough to prevent a lot of awfulness. For instance, if the world doesn't decarbonize quickly, a tipping point could be passed in the next few decades that would make a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) inevitable within another century or two; the consequences of that would be catastrophic and wide ranging.

- After the Annals of Internal Medicine published a Danish study that found no link between the small amounts of aluminum in vaccines and chronic diseases in children, US Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. demanded that the study be retracted. The journal is standing firm for now, though as they're based in the US it's possible that they'll be forced to knuckle under eventually.

- The Quebec government plans to introduce a bill that would ban prayer in public places such as streets and parks. They are prepared to use the notwithstanding clause if necessary. It probably will be necessary, especially given that such a law is almost certain to hit certain religious groups (i.e. Muslims) harder than others.

- Southwest Airlines will be requiring passengers who don't fit into a single airline seat to pay for a second seat. They do say they will refund the cost of the second seat if the plane isn't full at the time of departure. Nonetheless it's a touchy subject; there's probably no way to make everyone comfortable here, and it will have the effect of making it harder and more expensive for some people to fly compared to others. That said, flying is a privilege rather than a right, but the nastiness of some of the folks on this Reddit thread is uncalled for.

News roundup, 29 April 2025

- Mark Carney has retained power, but appears to have fallen short of the 172 seas needed for a majority; the Liberals show as leading or elected in 168 seats as of this morning. If these numbers hold, that could still give the much diminished NDP caucus the balance of power. With only 7 seats, though, the NDP loses party status; leader Jagmeet Singh has been soundly defeated in his own riding of Burnaby Central and has resigned as leader. As for the Greens, Elizabeth May held onto her seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, but her colleague Mike Morrice is behind the Cons in Kitchener Centre, though the results aren't final as of this post. On a more positive note, Pierre Poilievre has been defeated in his riding of Carleton. Full country-wide results may be found here.

- Besides the designs Donald Trump has on the Panama Canal, he's also turning his attention to the Suez Canal. He thinks that American and American-registered ships should be exempt from canal tolls, because Americans are special or something.

- A small ferry in Clearwater, Florida was hit by another vessel which then left the scene of the accident. One person on board the ferry died and several more were injured. From the pictures in that article, the ferry is one of those catamaran ones with a tentlike canopy; it looks like it might be the topmost picture on the ferry company's page about their fleet, which seats 42. The AP story states that "police did not immediately provide any information about the boat that fled the scene", but one ferry passenger in this article described it as a "big yacht". What stands out more to me, though, is the statement that the U.S. Coast Guard and Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission will be investigating; isn't that supposed to be the NTSB's job?

- There has been a significant change in opinion among registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents as to how the party's leaders should be dealing with the Trump agenda. In 2017, 74% wanted Democrats in Congress to "work with Republicans" to overcome the divisions in society; now, however, 57% want to see congressional Democrats do their utmost to try to stop them. The party's leadership, though, has yet to figure out what to do about the situation.

- An Irish woman who had lived in the US since childhood has been detained at an ICE facility in Tacoma over past criminal convictions. She had been convicted of drug possession more than 20 years ago, but under the understanding that the convictions had been expunged, she had travelled back and forth between the US and Ireland numerous times without trouble - until now.

- A massive power outage affected the entire Iberian peninsula on Monday; Portuguese authorities are blaming the blackout on extreme temperature variations.

- A Northern Irish rap group, Kneecap, has raised eyebrows after footage emerged of a gig a year and a half ago in which one of the members said "The only good Tory is a dead Tory. Kill your local MP".

News roundup, 3 July 2024

- Hurricane Beryl is moving towards Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane, with winds of up to 270 km/h (145 kt). The storm has already killed at least six people and caused widespread devastation on smaller islands.

- Joe Biden's fitness to serve as the Democratic presidential candidate continues to be the subject of intense discussion. A longtime member of the DNC, James Zogby, is calling on the party to establish a process to replace him as candidate in the event that he drops out; Gavin Newsom has hinted that he is "ready to step up". All this, of course, presupposes that Biden is willing to go quietly; unfortunately all evidence suggests otherwise.

- Given the increasing chances of a second Trump presidency, the recent Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity is all the more alarming. Consider this:

The text of the ruling states: "Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority."

So much for checks and balances and all that good stuff.

The ruling goes on to specify that, while a former president is "entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts", there is "no immunity for unofficial acts'. But in distinguishing between "official" and "unofficial" acts, where the hell does one draw the line?

As it turns out, the Supreme Court doesn’t really know either. Several pages down in the ruling, we find the ostensible lead-up to an explanation: "When the President acts pursuant to ‘constitutional and statutory authority,’ he takes official action to perform the functions of his office. … Determining whether an action is covered by immunity thus begins with assessing the President’s authority to take that action."

So far so good. But then some confusion arises because "the breadth of the president’s 'discretionary responsibilities' under the Constitution and laws of the United States frequently makes it 'difficult to determine which of [his] innumerable "functions" encompassed a particular action'".

In other words, because the president is the president, any of his actions can at least to some extent be construed as official. The ruling concludes: "The immunity the Court has recognised therefore extends to the 'outer perimeter' of the President’s official responsibilities, covering actions so long as they are ‘not manifestly or palpably beyond [his] authority'".

Never mind that if you abolish the rule of law, the "outer perimeter" of authority is not exactly, um, palpable.

That has the potential to undermine many of the criminal cases against Trump as well, though that is probably academic if he wins the election anyway. Andrew Coyne goes so far as to say that the decision has "removed the last bar to Trump's dictatorship".

- The news is somewhat more promising in France, as leftist and centrist parties have withdrawn hundreds of candidates from the second round of parliamentary elections, to avoid vote-splitting that could give Marine Le Pen's National Rally a majority. Of course the French have a rather deeper cultural understanding than the Americans do of what it means to live in a fascist state.

- German industry is strongly embracing solar power, as companies generate their own power to minimize costs. In fact, the country plans on meeting 80% of its electricity needs by renewables by 2030. Ambitious, but some much-needed good news.

- The dysfunctional state of American politics is undermining plans for a global minimum corporate tax agreement. Biden is in favour of it but Congress isn't; of course if Trump wins in the fall it's dead for the foreseeable future.

- Oklahoma's Superintendent of Public Instruction, Ryan Walters, is ordering teachers in the state's public schools to teach the Bible in grades 5-12, and says that teachers who refuse could be stripped of their licenses. The state Attorney General's office says that there is no legal authority for the Superintendent to specifically mandate the content of classes, but Walters is confident that Trump's Supreme Court appointments will solve that problem for him.

- BC's building code has been updated to allow apartment buildings with a single staircase, something common in much of the world but prohibited in new construction in most of North America. At one time there was a good reason for the rule, since it was a fire safety rule, but new building materials mean that this is less relevant today, and it contributes to the shortage of "missing middle" housing. More info on this in this video.

- In what can only be a positive move, another school board has banned cellphones.

Teabagger doesn't understand the Constitution

You'd think people who are constantly ranting about the importance of upholding the Constitution would have bothered to read it. Apparently not:

The US constitution has its quirks but it is crystal clear on one issue: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof," begins the first amendment, adopted in 1791. But more than 200 years later, its meaning appears to be lost on Christine O'Donnell, the Tea Party favourite running for a US Senate seat.

At a debate today for the Delaware Senate seat once occupied by Vice President Joe Biden, O'Donnell appeared to be nonplussed by the wording of the first amendment, repeatedly returning to the subject and sounding incredulous after her Democratic opponent Chris Coons attempted to explain it to her.

When Coons told her the text of the constitution prohibited government from establishing any religion, O'Donnell replied in apparent bewilderment: "You're telling me that's in the first amendment?"

From the Guardian. Rather strange. It gets better, though, because the teabaggers, for the most part, subscribe to a school of constitutional thought known as originalism, the idea that when interpreting the Constitution, every effort should be made to see what the Founding Fathers intended when they wrote it. Well, in this case we have some good evidence for the intention:

Not only is the first amendment perhaps the most famous part of the constitution but the "establishment clause", as it is known, is the subject of legal precedent stretching back into the 19th century. No less an authority than Thomas Jefferson, one of the constitution's authors, declared the clause's aim to build "a wall of separation between church and state".

My emphasis. Things are going to get rather interesting for some of these people when they find themselves actually getting elected (and I suspect far to many of them will for my liking). Gwynne Dyer thinks, though, that this might not be the disaster that some fear:

If all of the retired white people vote, and only the usual midterm proportion of all the other demographics does, then the Democrats will lose both houses of Congress.

So why isn’t Obama more worried about it?

He will certainly regret that so many long-serving Democratic senators and congressmen are going to lose their seats this autumn, but it really does not much matter to him who controls the Congress for the next two years.

He can’t hope to get any more legislation even through the current Congress since the Democrats lost their “super-majority” of 60 seats in the Senate last January, so what’s the difference?

Nor does Obama actually have to get more legislation through Congress right now. It would be nice to have a tough climate-change bill, no doubt, but from a political point of view, there is no new law that he simply must pass before he faces reelection himself in 2012.

Indeed, he stands a very good chance of winning a second term in 2012, in large part because of what is going to happen this November.

From the Georgia Straight. Essentially, Dyer thinks that the teabaggers will show their true colours, yet be unable to actually accomplish anything:

Getting majorities in both houses of Congress will leave the Republicans nowhere to hide on the critical issue of cutting the huge federal deficit. They have already said that they will not raise taxes—even for those earning more than $250,000 a year—and they have pledged not to cut defence spending.

What’s left? The only other big-ticket items in the budget are entitlements: health care and pensions.

The United States has not yet gone through the painful debate about how to tame the deficit that has already happened in most European countries, but it will have to do so soon.

That poses a particular problem for Republicans, because if they will not raise taxes on the rich or cut defence spending, then they have to support brutal cuts in health care and pensions or lose all credibility as deficit-cutters.

But cutting entitlements would alienate the Republicans’ own most important demographic: older white people. They will not risk that.

Dyer also points out that any ridiculous piece of legislation that they come up with, even if it passes both houses of Congress, is subject to presidential veto. The one thing he does not mention is that if the Republicans get supermajorities in both houses, they will be able to override his veto. Hopefully -- and probably -- that won't happen.

Teabagger strategy for midterms revealed

It's called voter suppression:

What was once an isolated story of one Republican group trying to suppress the Democratic vote is now turning into a much larger effort on the part of the entire Republican Party. Numerous stories have now emerged of various Republican candidates and conservative groups engaging in practices which they say are designed to stop voter fraud, but liberals claim the real goal is to keep legitimate Democratic voters from going to the polls.

The first evidence of a voter suppression effort came in the form of an audio tape of a Tea Party meeting in Wisconsin. In the meeting, one leader describes a concerted effort on the part of the Tea Party, the Republican Party, and Americans for Prosperity. The plan involved sending mailers to voters the group considered suspect voters. The mailer would warn the individuals that if they did not respond they may not be able to vote. That strategy has been used before as part of what is called the "voter caging" strategy. Under the strategy, many voters are effectively discouraged from voting because they believe (falsely) that they had to return the mailer from the private organization. In addition, the Wisconsin conservative group stated that they were planning to send a "team" of lawyers to districts where the mailers would possibly be used to challenge the votes of some citizens.

Following the Wisconsin story, another story came out concerning Republican senatorial candidate Mark Kirk. In an audio tape leaked to the press, Kirk can be heard telling his audience about his campaign's plan to send teams of lawyer to districts in Illinois which are dominated by African-America, Democratic voters. Kirk referred to these areas as "vulnerable districts" which would need to be monitored closely by his lawyers, but he did not feel the need to monitor areas dominated by white, Republican voters.

From here (h/t jblaque).

How will the US midterm elections play out?

They're going to be interesting, that's for sure.

On the surface, things look very bad for the Democrats. The Guardian cites a poll showing the Republicans having the support of 51% of registered voters, compared to the Democrats at 41%. And the Democrats' base is rather demoralized, because a lot of the hopes that led to Obama's election are being dashed. Certainly this could be a good thing, but not if the troops are simply shipped over to Afghanistan... And the healthcare initiative, while perhaps a slight improvement on what there was before, has been pretty mediocre, to say the least. (We'll make you buy health insurance, but won't pay for it unless you're really poor. None of that Canuck crap for you!) And we'll have to see what gets done on the climate front; on a diplomatic level it looks rather mediocre as well (uh... we'll sign an agreement that says we think we should probably do something about this, but not actually commit to anything). But with the grip they've had on the levers of government you'd think the Democrats would have accomplished far more than they have...

The funny thing is, though, in situations like this your enemy can be your best friend. The Republicans are actually in a rather bad state right now. David Neiwert at Crooks and Liars (h/t jblaque via Twitter) has pointed out that when teabaggers contest Republican nominations, it's become common for the loser to refuse to endorse the winner. Not to mention, when teabaggers are running in swing districts, they're less likely to win over the moderates. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of polling numbers change in the US once the summer's over. Hopefully that will change in Canada, too, before the likes of Harper, Ford et. al. win any more elections.

The lights all went out in Massachusetts...

Scott Brown has been elected to the Senate:

Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday in what is being called an epic upset for the Democratic Party.

Brown led by 52 per cent to 47 percent with all but 3 percent of precincts counted.

Democrat Edward Kennedy held the seat for almost 47 years before dying of brain cancer in August. Before that, his brother John held it for a decade.

Not only has Brown broken the Democrats' stranglehold, but his win also puts at risk the cause to which Ted Kennedy devoted his life.

Brown has vowed to kill the very thing Ted Kennedy lived for and President Barack Obama dearly covets — a form of universal health care.

Source. This is not good news for the Obama administration, for sure. How dramatic the effects of this are still remain to be seen, but it could get ugly. Of course, Brown won't have a long career, as kos points out:

Either Scott Brown alienates ideologically rigid Teabaggers by casting votes with Democrats in order to shore up his standing at home; or

He votes in lockstep with the rest of his party and becomes the nation's most unpopular senator.

One or the other is inevitable. Maybe both.

Which way this goes probably makes little difference to Brown's chances of getting reelected (slim), but it makes a big difference how damaging this is. If Brown votes against a filibuster, this minimalist health care package might actually be passed before the midterm elections. Unfortunately, I think the other outcome is more likely, and that the package will be delayed until fall, then die entirely when the Democrats lose their majority, as I expect they will.

Interesting...

According to this article, Nancy Pelosi is saying that health care reform will continue regardless of what happens tonight in Massachusetts. Not everyone agrees, though, as evidenced by this snippet from Stockhouse.com:

U.S. investors returned to trading today in a much better mood than they finished off with last week. Today’s earnings slate helped to boost sentiment with no major negative surprises out of the banking sector, as Citigroup’s (C) TARP losses came in even with expectations, and First Horizon (FHN) reported an improvement in its loan loss provision. Industrial manufacturer Parker-Hannafin (PHN) posted strong earnings (62 cents vs. Street 34 cents) and guidance. The health care sector has also been rallying, led by Coventry Health (CVH) and Eli Lilly (LLY) ahead of a key Massachusetts senate by-election, which may have a major impact on pending health care legislation.

In other words, the potential failure of health care reform is good news in the eyes of those arseholes.

Do-or-die day for the Democrats

Who could have imagined the Democrats having trouble in Massachusetts? Well, today a by-election (or as the Americans call them, a "special election") is being held to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Ted Kennedy. And it's possible that they could actually lose:

The special election being held today to fill Mr. Kennedy's Senate seat, which is too close to call, is a stinging verdict on President Barack Obama's first year in office. If Democrat Martha Coakley loses - or barely scrapes by - Mr. Obama will bear the blame and the consequences will reverberate for the rest of his term.

The Massachusetts race also offers voters across the country a taste of what to expect this fall, when midterm elections will be held for all 435 seats in U.S. House of Representatives and more than a third of those in the 100-seat Senate. Gone from the Democratic pitch is the message of hope and empowerment that fuelled Mr. Obama's 2008 campaign. In its place are eerie attack ads and warnings of the dark days that a Republican win would bring.

From the Globe and Mail. If this happens, it could cripple Obama's administration, since the Democrats would lose their 60% majority in the Senate that they need to stop a filibuster. This would mean that the health care plan would probably collapse; all that the Republicans need is to delay it until the midterm elections. Worse, it could be damaging to efforts to minimize climate change. And in any case it could seriously damage Obama's chance of reelection in 2012. Gwynne Dyer's fear that Obama could be the next LBJ might well bear fruit. How does "President Mike Huckabee" sound to you? Maybe "President Nehemiah Scudder"?

Bailing on the bailout

Well, as we all know, the big bailout is being held up in the US House of Representatives, with dramatic results. I don't honestly know what to think of this. The folks at Kitco, and to a large extent iTulip as well, are applauding the defeat of the bailout. Of course, most of these people lean in the direction of libertarianism (in the contemporary North American sense of the term), so their opinion is to be taken with a 10 kg bag of salt. However, although the bailout was mostly opposed by Republicans and supported by Democrats, there were substantial numbers of people in both parties that broke ranks on the issue. What's interesting is that among its critics are Dennis Kucinich and Bernie Sanders, two of the most progressive elected officials in the entire country, as well as the (on the surface at least) libertarian-leaning Ron Paul. I say "on the surface" because there are reports that suggest he has some strongly socially conservative views (thanks to bugsybrown for the tip); in any case, though, Paul is usually at odds with his own party, be it about the war or about monetary policy. It seems to be opposed by "mavericks" of both the left and the right; ironically the guy who's always billed as a maverick is shitting himself trying to figure out a way to move it forward. Go figure.

It remains to be seen whether or not the House can be brought to agreement on the bailout, and if so what changes are necessary to allow it to pass -- not to mention whether or not it will be effective. Again, interesting times...

So it looks like Obama is it...

It was announced on the radio that it's now all but official- Barack Obama will be the Democrats' presidential candidate this fall. On balance I see this as a good thing; Obama's the best of a bad lot. If Clinton won the nomination I'd still strongly favour her over McCain; on the other hand, if they were options I would, in a heartbeat, pick Jack Layton, Elizabeth May, or probably even Stéphane Dion over Obama. After all, as my mum said of Obama, "he's still a Yankee".