Aussies get it, we don't

In some places, car buyers seem to be getting the message that fuel efficient cars are the way to go:

Australia's large car stalwarts - the Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore - have been punished in the January new-car sales results, succumbing to a continued onslaught by smaller, more efficient vehicles.

The Ford Falcon - once Australia's best-selling car - managed just 1157 sales in January, being outsold by more than three-to-one by the Toyota Corolla. The Falcon, which is due to be updated this year with the addition of a four-cylinder engine option, didn't even register among the top 10 selling vehicles for January.

From the Brisbane Times. This makes perfect sense; even setting aside environmental concerns, fuel costs are already high and are only going to get higher in the long run. Which brings us to our own car buyers:

It turns out Manitobans like trucks better than cars, and domestic-made vehicles better than imports -- especially General Motors vehicles, which was the market leader last year with 27.2 per cent of the 44,025 light vehicles sold.

Where they seem to be divided is on size. Large pickup trucks were the most popular type of vehicle, accounting for 25.8 per cent of all sales. But compact cars were second, at 18.9 per cent, followed by compact SUVs at 16.3 per cent.

From the Free Press. So why is it that the Aussies, with their redneck reputation, are making more sensible decisions than we are? To be fair, this counts new vehicle sales only, and it could be that those who are sensible enough not to buy a huge willy-compensating truck are also sensible enough to buy used rather than new.

Montreal introducing car tax based on number of cylinders

Good idea I think:

Resident Montreal motorists can expect to be hit next year with a vehicle tax based on the number of cylinders they have under the hood, and that charge will be capped at an “average maximum” of $50 annually, according to documents tabled at Montreal city hall this week.

From the Gazette. Predictably, a some people are up in arms about this, but one of their objections is interesting:

“It is inequitable and unfair that in 2011 a special $50 tax on (vehicle) registrations be imposed only on residents of the island of Montreal,” Vision Montreal leader Louise Harel said in a communiqué, noting that such a tax ought to be applied to all motorists in the Montreal Metropolitan Community, an affiliation of 82 Montreal-area municipalities extending from Mirabel in the north to Richelieu in the south and including the cities of Longueuil and Laval.

Setting aside the rather obvious point that Montreal doesn't have jurisdiction outside the island, it could be argued too that people on the island have less actual need for cars. The city has excellent public transit, and is reasonably friendly to pedestrians and cyclists.

One quibble, though; it would probably make more sense to base the tax on displacement, rather than cylinders per se. If the tax goes through as described above, a GM pickup truck with a 2.9 litre Vortec four will be cheaper to register than a VW with a 2.5 litre five, which seems rather at odds with the intent of the law.

Peak vehicles?

Very interesting:

Americans scrapped 4 million more cars and trucks last year than they purchased, the first significant drop in the U.S. auto fleet in more than four decades, according to a new report.

The United States scrapped 14 million vehicles last year while buying only 10 million new ones, dropping the nation's fleet from an all-time high of 250 million to 246 million, according to the Earth Policy Institute.

Lester Brown, the author of the report, said the drop -- the first significant shrinkage the U.S. fleet has seen since record-keeping began in 1960 -- represents a "cultural shift away from the car" and estimated the fleet size will continue to recede during the next decade. He estimated the fleet could shrink a total of 10 percent by 2020.

"No one knows how many cars will be sold in the years ahead, but given the many forces at work, U.S. car sales may never again reach the 17 million that were sold each year between 1999 and 2007," Brown said. "Sales seem more likely to remain between 10 million and 14 million per year."

From Scientific American, via ggirod in this iTulip thread. The article suggests that young folks don't see as much need for cars as their parents did:

"Perhaps the most fundamental social trend affecting the future of the automobile is the declining interest in cars among young people," Brown said. "Many of today's young people living in a more urban society learn to live without cars. They socialize on the Internet and on smart phones, not in cars."

Interestingly, last week I heard an interview on The Current with a US military psychologist, who noted that the majority of the new recruits she saw didn't have driver's licences. On the other hand, ggirod thinks it might simply be that the number of two-income households is declining. Either way, this is a good thing from an environmental point of view, though it means the industrial heartland of Ontario and Michigan is going to have to adapt big time.

A couple of auto industry stories

As we know, Ford is the only American automaker that didn't need a bailout. Why might that be? Well, maybe it's because they don't suck:

DETROIT -- Ford Motor Co. has secured its position as the only domestic automaker with world-class reliability, according to a report released last week by Consumer Reports.

The findings for the trusted magazine's 2009 Annual Car Reliability Survey are from 1.4 million consumer surveys combined with its own performance testing.

Of the 51 Ford, Mercury and Lincoln cars and trucks surveyed by Consumer Reports, 90 per cent were average or better.

The Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan midsized sedans ranked higher than any other family sedan, except for the Toyota Prius hybrid car.

That's noteworthy because the Ford Fusion, which is the 10th best-selling vehicle in America so far this year, outperformed the better-selling Toyota Camry (No. 2) and Honda Accord (No. 4).

Interesting; so much for "found on road dead". Maybe GM and Chrysler are being held back by their unions... Oh, wait. Our friends on the Kitco and iTulip boards will be a bit nonplussed by that, but maybe there's another reason? Like, say, that the management at GM and Chrysler don't know what the hell they're doing, while those at Ford do?

But there's good news for Wilmington, Delaware, whose GM plant closed this year. Fisker Automotive is buying the plant to build electric cars:

NEW YORK -- Electric-car start-up Fisker Automotive said Tuesday that it will invest nearly $200 million to buy and retool a former General Motors plant in Wilmington, Del., facing off against Honda Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and other big manufacturers in the nascent market for electric vehicles.

Topped off by an appearance from U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden at the plant in Delaware, Fisker Automotive said it hopes to support 2,000 factory jobs and more than 3,000 vendor and supplier jobs by 2014 at the site, with a production target of 75,000 to 100,000 vehicles per year.

The Irvine, Calif.-based company will spend about $18 million to buy the plant from Motors Liquidation Co. and then spend an additional $175 million to retool the plant to begin production in 2012. "This is a major step toward establishing America as a leader of advanced vehicle technology," said Henrik Fisker, the firm's chief executive.

Fisker Automotive received $529 million in government-loan guarantees in September to develop plug-in vehicles, after breaking into the business as the maker of a luxurious, $80,000 electric car with a range of up to 483 kilometres. That car, called the Karma, is expected to go on sale in 2010.

Given the need to reduce our greenhouse emissions, this could be the best news of all in the long run, if the cars work as advertised. I am curious, though, as to whether Fisker will hire laid off workers from the plant, or if they'll hire kids straight out of school? The former would probably be better for the community, but it remains to be seen whether Fisker will choose that route. After all, many companies don't like to hire people who have worked for other companies in the same industry. The Toyota plant in Cambridge has a reputation for this, for instance. I suppose this could be rationalized in terms of differing corporate cultures, and preferring to train a worker who is, relatively speaking, a tabula rasa than one who's already habituated to a different corporate culture. I suspect, though, that these companies' real fear is that people who have worked in a unionized environment might have traits that they might not want in their company -- like, say, knowing what their rights are.

Looks like a banger really is greener than a Prius!

A lot of countries are considering schemes where people are paid cash to buy new, supposedly greener cars. Well, it is indeed true that newer cars produce fewer smog-producing emissions, and some of them are better on fuel, but even taking these into account this may not wash:

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders is lobbying Mandelson to ape a German scheme and offer British motorists a £2,000 "cash-back" if they will scrap their old car and buy a new one. Just to help out the car-makers. Mandelson has let it be known he is considering the idea.

My Guardian colleague, George Monbiot, laid into this scam in his column this week. Yes, he says, modern cars are slightly greener than old bangers (though much of that gain is lost because we insist on buying more powerful vehicles). But that £2,000 could deliver far more emissions reductions if it were invested in public transport, or low-energy lightbulbs, or nuclear power plants or, well, almost anything else you care to mention.

But there is another aspect to this, raised briefly by George. What about the carbon footprint of manufacturing that new car? Here is where the real greenwash lies in the Mandelson plan for cash-back on old bangers. For apart from giving up the car altogether — which I recommend — the greenest thing you can do is to keep the old vehicle for as many extra years as you can manage.

From the Guardian. Of course, when the auto industry is crumbling, this is not a popular viewpoint, but from an environmental perspective those cash payments just don't wash.