An unnerving poll result for the Manitoba NDP

This Angus Reid poll (h/t Curtis at Endless Spin) shows a commanding lead for the McFadyen Conservatives -- they have 48% support, compared to 36% for the NDP, 12% for the Liberals, and 3% for the Greens. I'm not 100% sure what to make of it; the last Angus Reid poll looked like an outlier, but this is an even more dramatic rise for the Tories. One aspect of the poll's methodology does make me wonder -- it was a poll of 800 randomly selected members of Angus Reid's panel. Presumably they make an effort to make the panel reflective of the electorate, but there may be limits to this (perhaps someone more conversant with modern polling methodology could enlighten me). On the other hand, Angus Reid is a respected pollster and it would be foolish to dismiss this out of hand. To someone like me, McFadyen's crowd look like a bunch of idiots, while Selinger carries an air of calm competence. However, I freely admit to not being the average Manitoban. We'll have to see if this trend continues with the next poll.

Manitoba Conservatives show lead for first time in years

Too soon to say what this means, but an Angus Reid poll shows the PCs substantially ahead of the NDP:

An Angus Reid poll released Thursday -- on the eve of the release of the new provincial budget -- shows Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives out in front of Premier Greg Selinger's New Democrats.

"This sets up Tuesday's budget," said the University of Manitoba's Jared Wesley, an assistant professor of political studies. "This is when Manitobans will have a first real look at the premier."

Wesley said Selinger and Finance Minister Rosann Wowchuk have to make a good impression on Manitobans to take any momentum away from the PCs.

"Anybody who's in politics has to take it seriously because it's coming from Angus Reid," Wesley said of the poll.

It found 44 per cent of decided Manitoba voters say they would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency if a provincial election were held tomorrow. The governing NDP is second with 37 per cent followed by the Liberal Party with 13 per cent and the Green Party with three per cent.

Brian at Just Damn Stupid dismisses this out of hand based on the poll methodology. I'm no expert, but I'm not prepared to dismiss these results, much as I might like to. While it is an online poll, it's a far cry from those worthless polls you seen on every media website; Angus Reid is a respectable firm and they make a serious effort to ensure a sample is representative. However, another factor may be in play here:

The NDP is ahead of the Tories in Winnipeg (44 per cent to 36 per cent), but the opposition party holds the upper hand in rural Manitoba (55 per cent to 28 per cent).

Some of the government's policies in the last few years have been unpopular in rural Manitoba. In particular, the new wastewater regulations and the moratorium on new hog operations have been spun by the Tories and various interest groups as an attack on the heart of rural Manitoba. The thing is, though, most of the rural constituencies are already held by the Tories; it does a party no good, from an electoral point of view, to gain popularity in constituencies it already holds.

Federal NDP hits 20% in latest Angus Reid poll

This looks promising:

Across the country, 33 per cent of decided voters (-1 since mid-February) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.

The Liberal Party is second with 29 per cent (-1), three points ahead of the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 20 per cent (+2), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (=), and the Green Party also with nine per cent (+1). This is the best result for the NDP since an Angus Reid survey conducted in the middle of the 2008 federal campaign.

Source. Of course, it remains to be seen whether this will hold. I'd like to see some seat projections based on these numbers; the difference between 15% and 20% can be huge.