News roundup, 18 Sept 2026

- Manitoba is the latest province to do away with semi-annual clock changes. The province will remain on daylight saving time rather than switching back to standard time in the fall. This follows a survey which found that 92% of respondents wanted to eliminate time changes; 58% preferred DST while 34% preferred standard time. Notably, health experts generally agree with permanent standard time rather than DST, though most of them also consider permanent DST to be preferable to changing twice a year as the time change itself leads to more sleep disruption, resulting in an increase in heart attacks and strokes as well as more accidents on the road and in the workplace.

- Tamara Lich, one of the leaders of the so-called "Freedom Convoy", has been stymied in her attempt to get an exemption to the house arrest she has been under since her conviction for mischief in other offenses as a result of her role in the protest. She has previously been granted exemptions to visit her grandchildren, and has also been allowed to travel to other provinces for the job she holds with the far-right Rebel News, but this time she was trying to get permission to leave the country in order to do several things she claims are related to the job; these included attending press conferences at the White House as well as going on a week long cruise. Evidently that was a bridge too far.

- The BC Conservative Party apparently hired a private investigator to spy on a number of people, including several sitting MLAs (current as well as former caucus members) as well as a former party president and an NDP staffer. This and other upheavals in the party has added to suspicions that Premier David Eby plans to call a snap election to take advantage of a divided opposition.

- Newly unsealed evidence has revealed details of an investigation into corruption in the Toronto Police Service. Besides drug trafficking, officers are alleged to have met with criminals to enable them to access secret databases; among other things this led to an attempted assassination of a corrections officer, apparently at the request of a man currently held at the Toronto South Detention Centre who has been linked to suspected drug lord (and former Olympian) Ryan Wedding.

- Australians appear to be going all-in on electric cars. Sales of electric vehicles there exceeded those of gas powered cars in August for the first time. The surge in fuel prices as a result of the US/Israeli war on Iran is a big factor, though if we're honest the fact that the country no longer has an auto industry of its own probably adds to their willingness to buy imports from China, since it won't cost them any jobs.

- Israeli communities near the border with Gaza are facing an invasion of rats from the territory. The devastation has created ideal conditions for rats to do well; they have bred prodigiously (as they are wont to do) and have caused significant damage to agriculture, with some locations losing 70% of their harvest to the animals.

- A 13 year old Maryland boy was hospitalized after being attacked by a rabid beaver while swimming. Besides needing rabies vaccinations he required surgery to repair nerve damage from the attack.

- FBI director Kash Patel is defending his agency's decision to relax some of its hiring restrictions. Notably, under the new rules, having committed bestiality is no longer an automatic disqualification. Perhaps they want to do a lot of recruiting in the rural South.

News roundup, 5 Aug 2026

- Over 80% of the new vehicles registered in Denmark in July were electric. For cars purchased by individuals rather than corporations, this rises to 97%. EVs also account for nearly 25% of new vehicles purchased in Australia in the first half of this year. Doubtless the spike in fuel prices as a result of the US/Israel attack on Iran is a major factor.

- Leftwing candidate Abdul El-Sayed appears to be in the lead in the Democratic primary for a Michigan Senate seat that will be up for grabs this fall. Should he win the primary and the election he will be the first Muslim senator in the US.

- St. Catharines, Ontario was hit by severe flooding after two major storms hit the city within a few days. Thousands of homes were damaged

- A Russian soldier in Crimea reportedly opened fire on his comrades as well as on civilians, killing four people and wounding four others. 

- Both Morocco and Spain are saying that the surge of migrants into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta was not spontaneous, but rather was driven by online misinformation, possibly spread by people in the human smuggling business. This has yet to be confirmed, however.

- The Winnipeg Sea Bears have confirmed suspicions that it was nightclub security who injured star player Teddy Allen on the weekend. Allen's injuries were significant enough that he will be missing Thursday's playoff game; police are investigating the incident.

- A Florida evangelist took advantage of an Alaska Airlines plane whose takeoff was delayed in San Diego last week to stand in the aisle and preach at her captive audience. The airline was less than amused and removed her from the flight.

News roundup, 15 Dec 2025

- At least 15 people were killed and numerous others injured in a mass shooting at a Hanukkah festival in the Sydney suburb of Bondi Beach. One of the suspects is among the dead, while the other was successfully disarmed by a man who tackled him from behind. Predictably, the Israelis are trying to blame the Australian government because the government recently voted to recognize a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu claims "pours fuel on the antisemitism fire".

- The federal government is moving ahead with plans for a high speed rail corridor. The first leg to be constructed will span the 200 km between Montreal and Ottawa, with a stop in Laval. Construction is expected to begin in 2029.

- Alberta's attorney general and justice minister Mickey Amery has introduced a bill which would prohibit the province's law society from sanctioning the attorney general for actions taken while carrying out the "duties and functions" of the position. Amery claims that the change is needed to protect the office from "political activism". Several former holders of the position have run into trouble in the past, including one who was reprimanded by the society after getting caught calling Edmonton's police chief in the hope of making a ticket disappear.

- Thirteen Republican members of Congress voted with the Democrats to advance a bill that nullifies one of Trump's executive orders. The order in question aims to remove the collective bargaining rights of employees of several federal agencies; the bill will presumably be vetoed by Trump if it makes it through the Senate, though.

- The Trump regime's new national security strategy is earning praise from the Putin regime in Russia. The Russians apparently like the fact that it shifts the US' focus from Eurasia to the Americas; the strategy has already raised eyebrows for alluding to the so-called "Great Replacement Theory" in saying that Europe faces "civilizational erasure" due to excess immigration.

- A new proposal would require tourists visiting the US to provide access to five years' worth of their social media posts. Just how this would be implemented, and which platforms would be covered, remains to be seen. This is not likely to help the country's increasingly beleaguered tourism industry, but perhaps the regime thinks it's worth it to keep "wrong thinkers" from visiting.

- Two people were killed and nine wounded in a mass shooting at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. A person of interest was taken into custody but subsequently released.

- Acclaimed American filmmaker Rob Reiner, who directed classics such as This Is Spinal Tap, Stand By Me, The Princess Bride, and Misery, was stabbed to death in his home along with his wife of 36 years, Michelle Singer Reiner. Police say that a family member is being "interviewed" in connection with their deaths; other sources say that the suspect is their 32 year old son Nick.

News roundup, 11 Aug 2025

- Six journalists were killed and three injured when an IDF drone hit their tent in what appears to have been a targeted attack. It's like the Israelis aren't even pretending anymore, just counting on people's fear of being called antisemitic being enough to keep talk of this out of western consciousness. That approach doesn't seem to be working as well as it used to; Australia is the latest country to announce that they'll be recognizing a Palestinian state, with New Zealand expected to follow suit. The UK, on the other hand, seems to still be solidly in their pocket; they just arrested over 500 people for carrying protest placards in support of Palestine Action, a group that has been labelled a "terrorist organization" for their interference in the operation of Israeli weapons manufacturers.

- The Trump regime is threatening to take direct control of the District of Columbia, allegedly to deal with rampant crime.

- A Georgia man who had was convinced that his depression was the result of the COVID-19 vaccine opened fire on the Centers for Disease Control, firing dozens of rounds into the complex and killing a police officer before dying himself (whether his death was at the hands of himself or the police is unclear at this point).

- The membership of Brokenhead Ojibway Nation have voted against a partnership with Sio Silica to mine sand in southeastern Manitoba. The agreement would have given the first nation 5% of the profits from the project.

- A wildfire is spreading rapidly on the outskirts of New Brunswick's largest city, with some bedroom communities being urged to prepare for evacuation.

- A Quebec judge has given the go ahead to a class action suit over brainwashing experiments conducted in Montreal by Dr. Ewan Cameron as part of the CIA-funded MK-Ultra program.

- The WNBA is having to deal with an outbreak of sex toys being thrown onto the court during games. For some strange reason no other professional sports league seems to have to deal with this.

News roundup, 6 May 2025

- Mark Carney will be meeting with Donald Trump today in Washington. He is, quite rightly, trying to keep expectations low. Tony Keller, writing for the Globe and Mail, thinks that in the short run Carney will gain political benefits regardless of how Trump conducts himself, but in the long run things will be more difficult.

- A state of emergency has been declared in several communities in the Interlake region of Manitoba. Houses have been burned in Peguis and Pinaymootang First Nations, and Kinonjeoshtegon First Nation is also facing imminent threats. Further north, in Opaskwayak Cree Nation, the Bracken Dam neighbourhood is under a mandatory evacuation order, and other parts of OCN and the neighbouring town of The Pas are under high alert. And in Winnipeg, a fire ban is in place, prohibiting open fires as well as coal and wood burning barbecues for a two week period beginning yesterday evening.

- The people behind the metre-long ballots that appeared in some ridings in last week's election, including the riding of Carleton where Pierre Poilievre was defeated, wants to make an even bigger splash in the upcoming byelection in Battle River – Crowfoot, where incumbent MP Damien Kurek stepped down to make way for his leader. They hope to get at least 200 people to agree to put their names on the ballot, as a protest against the persistence of first past the post voting.

- Alberta premier Danielle Smith plans to chair a panel on options for the province to "protect" itself from perceived federal incursions, and then give the public a chance to vote on the proposals in a referendum. She is quick to say that there are no plans to put secession on the ballot, unless of course the separatists get enough signatures to compel it go be there. She claims not to be in favour of secession, so it was very sporting of her to remind separatists what they need to do. She also presented the federal government with a list of demands, which appear to involve the repeal of virtually all significant federal environmental legislation as well as hate speech laws, and the right for Alberta to veto any retaliatory export tariffs that might impact its economy in some way.

- Most polls underestimated support for the Australian Labor Party in that country's election last weekend. This is interesting, because the pattern in Canada and the US of late has been to overestimate support for the centre and centre-left, and/or to underestimate support for the right. The idea that people might feel ashamed to admit, even anonymously, that they'd vote for a party which is campaigning on being nasty, is an easy one to grasp; the Brits even have a term for that sort of thing. If anything you'd expect that to be even stronger now; these days conspiracy theories tend to be a lot more concentrated on the right end of the spectrum, so you'd expect those folks to be the ones who'd be afraid to tell a pollster who they'd consider voting for (because pollsters work for the New World Order or something, I'm sure). In the recent Canadian federal election, if you compare the polls used by 338Canada with the actual results, it's a bit stranger. If you look at the graph of 338's poll aggregates over time, there seems to have been a last minute surge towards both the Liberals and the Conservatives, a trend which continues on polls since the election. In the case of the Australian election, they're thinking it might be things like the fact that younger people are much less likely to answer the phone to do a poll, but if that is correct it's interesting in itself, because in Canada, the US, and the UK the youngest generations seem to be latching onto hard-right politics at a disturbing rate. Maybe Australia is different?

- Vancouver-Kingsway MP Don Davies has been appointed interim leader of the federal NDP following the resignation of Jagmeet Singh. 

- Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Party, has failed to secure support from a majority of the Bundestag, the lower house of the country's parliament, after 18 MPs from the coalition he had put together voted against making him chancellor. The parliament now has 14 days to either reconsider their decision or select another chancellor.

- A Soviet-era probe, which was intended to land on Venus, didn't make it past Earth orbit due to a technical problem following its launch in 1972. It is expected to reenter the Earth's atmosphere around this weekend, and because it was intended to survive entry into Venus' thick atmosphere, it is likely to hit the ground rather than burning up before impact.

- A woman reported missing in Wisconsin in 1962 at the age of 20 has been found alive and well in a neighbouring state. She had fled a troubled and possibly abusive marriage and evidently wanted nothing to do with her former life.

News roundup, 29 Nov 2024

- Vladimir Putin is threatening to use Russia's new hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, recently demonstrated in a strike on Dnipro, to strike targets in Kyiv, potentially including political targets as well as military ones. Due to the high speed (around Mach 10 according to some reports) an explosive warhead is not even needed if the targeting is effective. A spokesperson for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is downplaying the possibilities for these weapons; I don't know if he's actually right about this or just trying to put on a brave face, though.

- Australia's parliament has now passed landmark legislation that bans those under the age of 16 from most social media. The bill was passed with the support of most of the main opposition parties, but was opposed by most of the independents and smaller parties in the Senate. Exemptions are made for apps that are primarily for messaging (such as WhatsApp), online gaming services, and educational services, and services such as YouTube that do not require a login. Awkwardly, one of the authors of the study cited as a reason for the ban is now saying that the study's findings do not justify it - but the author in question is British, and for all we know he might be trying to cover his butt in case some social media company decides to exploit the UK's libel laws (which are notorious for favouring the plaintiff) to claim damages for lost profits arising from the use of his research. As well, Elon Musk is opposed, so I'd be inclined to support the legislation based on that - except that Debra Soh is in favour, so maybe not.

- France's government is requiring all outdoor parking spaces larger than 1,500 m² to have canopies of solar panels built over them. Not only will this generate a lot of electricity, it will make it a lot less uncomfortable to get into your car after leaving it parked on a hot day (and maybe mean a few fewer infants and pets getting cooked).

- There are fears that Donald Trump's proposed new tariffs may provoke China into what some call "supply chain warfare" - cutting American companies off from needed materials and components. It's tricky, though, because China also depends on things like microchips that are sold by American companies.

- A news station in Washington, DC ran several stories about a report on the impact of gas stoves on indoor air quality - only to then scrub them from their website apparently to avoid offending their sponsor, which happened to be the local natural gas utility.

- There have been some abrupt changes in X (the former Twitter) recently, including the ability to turn off engagement numbers, leading some to think that Musk and co. are worried about the recent exodus of users to Bluesky. Interestingly, over at Meta, Mark Zuckerberg seems concerned about the fact that Bluesky is picking up the slack instead of his own company's counterpart, Threads.

- First United American Companies, a limited liability company affiliated with Alex Jones' dietary supplements business, is attempting to block the purchase of Jones' Infowars website by The Onion in favour of their own bid. Elon Musk is also trying to interfere, saying that Infowars' X accounts cannot be transferred according to X's terms of service.

- A former employee of Boston College is trying to sue the institution for religious discrimination after he was fired for refusing to be vaccinated against COVID-19. The employee, a landscaper, is a member of a fringe religious sect derived from Bogomilism, a neo-Gnostic sect that had its heyday in 10th century Bulgaria. The college is using an interesting defense - as a Catholic institution, they say that they are bound by their own religious duty following Pope Francis' 2020 decree that Catholics are obligated to protect their own and others' health.

News roundup, 22 Nov 2024

- While it's too late to do anything about it now, it's an interesting academic exercise to consider whether US Attorney General Merrick Garland could have prevented the reelection of Donald Trump. Dean Obeidallah argues that Garland has utterly failed his country by failing to push aggressively enough in prosecuting Trump after the Jan 6 putsch. Many in this Reddit thread agree with Obeidallah; others think that Garland had no choice but to do his utmost to build an airtight case against the former President, due to the inevitable perception among half the country that this was a partisan hit job against their hero. But I can't help but think that maybe he should have just recognized that this would happen no matter how airtight the case and pushed ahead aggressively; on the other hand, if he did that and it ended in an acquittal, that could have won a lot of support for Trump.

- If RFK Jr. is appointed health secretary as everyone expects, we'd better hope that we don't get another pandemic during the coming years - like, say, a mutant version of H5N1 (avian influenza) that can easily spread human to human like many other flu strains. Some fear that the recent case in BC could be a sign that this is happening; on the other hand, you'd expect to have heard of more cases by now if that were true.

- Matt Gaetz has abandoned his quest to become the US Attorney General; Trump has selected prosecutor Pam Bondi for the position instead.

- The Trudeau government is suspending the GST on a number of items for a two month period; the list of affected items includes things like children's clothing and diapers but also less essential things like restaurant meals, Christmas trees, and beer. They're also sending out $250 cheques in the spring to anyone who earned less than $150,000 last year. One could be forgiven for being a bit cynical about the government's motives here.

- The truck driver involved in that fatal crash last week near Altona, Manitoba was charged with two counts of dangerous driving causing death and one of obstructing a police officer. He has now disappeared and is the subject of a Canada-wide warrant for his arrest.

- While Waterloo Region's LRT system, the Ion, has been very successful, there is one recurring problem - morons keep trying to pull U-turns in front of the trains. In the most recent case the train was actually derailed, though fortunately nobody was injured, not even the idiot driving the car. You can see video of the accident here.

- There are indications that the highly popular weight-loss drug Ozempic not only helps people to lose weight, it seems to actually change people's tastes towards more healthful foods. The fast food industry is sufficiently worried about this to be intensely studying the incidence of this; it's bad news for them if this is true, albeit good news for everybody else. On the downside, there is some evidence that more food might be wasted by users of Ozempic and similar drugs.

- A bill before Australia's parliament would ban most social media for persons under 16. An exception is made for YouTube due to the large amount of educational and other child-friendly content on the platform; some who called for the legislation approve of enabling youth to watch YouTube, but would prefer to have a limitation on young users' ability to upload material to avoid the potential for exploitation and bullying.

- Six people have died of apparent methanol poisoning after visiting Vang Vieng, Laos, a popular destination for young tourists. This is a shockingly common occurrence in much of the world, including the EU.

News roundup, 18 Feb 2024

- Donald Trump, his company, and two of his sons have been hit with a $364 million judgment in the civil fraud case, most of which is owed by Trump himself and the company. This is on top of the $83 million he owes to E. Jean Carroll as a result of last month's ruling by another court. While he's expected to appeal, he could well have to front the money. No doubt he can find someone, somewhere, who will help him out, but there will likely be conditions on that assistance, and that could get mighty awkward for national security if he regains the presidency (and the associated access to state secrets) while owing large amounts of money to shadowy operatives somewhere.

- Professors at Brandon University have voted 87% in favour of a strike, with a 76% turnout. Pensions are one of the biggest issues; retirees currently receive between $30,000 to $40,000 a year, a figure unchanged in a decade in a half despite recent inflation.

- Besides the devastating consequences for Gaza, the conflict there has inconvenienced Israeli businesspeople who depend on Palestinians for cheap labour. So they're hiring migrant labourers from overseas to make up for the loss.

- The Philippines is accusing China of using cyanide to destroy the fishery at the Scarborough Shoal, which falls into the Philippines' 200 NM exclusion zone but is claimed by China as their own territory. After all, they need those pesky fishers to go away if they want to be able to "properly" make use of their claim.

- Controversy has arisen over the 2023 Hugo Awards, which were held in Chengdu, China. It has come to light that the organizers of the event excluded numerous authors, including Neil Gaiman, R.F. Kuang, Xiran Jay Zhao, and Paul Weimer from the awards, despite getting enough fan votes, out of fear that honouring them and/or their works could upset the Chinese authorities.

- Australia's new government is following France's lead in giving workers the "right to disconnect" so as not to be bothered by their bosses once they finish work for the day. The opposition is already vowing to support those poor beleaguered bosses by repealing the legislation if they regain power in the next election, but the claims that this will destroy productivity are very much open to question.

- A WestJet flight from Vancouver to Toronto was forced to divert to Winnipeg after a passenger decided they couldn't take another minute in the air and tried to open a door. This seems to be happening a lot nowadays. It's as if the people who were freaking out at the height of the pandemic because they couldn't travel are losing their minds now when they discover that flying isn't the pleasant experience that their rose-coloured nostalgic memories tell them it is.

Aussies get it, we don't

In some places, car buyers seem to be getting the message that fuel efficient cars are the way to go:

Australia's large car stalwarts - the Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore - have been punished in the January new-car sales results, succumbing to a continued onslaught by smaller, more efficient vehicles.

The Ford Falcon - once Australia's best-selling car - managed just 1157 sales in January, being outsold by more than three-to-one by the Toyota Corolla. The Falcon, which is due to be updated this year with the addition of a four-cylinder engine option, didn't even register among the top 10 selling vehicles for January.

From the Brisbane Times. This makes perfect sense; even setting aside environmental concerns, fuel costs are already high and are only going to get higher in the long run. Which brings us to our own car buyers:

It turns out Manitobans like trucks better than cars, and domestic-made vehicles better than imports -- especially General Motors vehicles, which was the market leader last year with 27.2 per cent of the 44,025 light vehicles sold.

Where they seem to be divided is on size. Large pickup trucks were the most popular type of vehicle, accounting for 25.8 per cent of all sales. But compact cars were second, at 18.9 per cent, followed by compact SUVs at 16.3 per cent.

From the Free Press. So why is it that the Aussies, with their redneck reputation, are making more sensible decisions than we are? To be fair, this counts new vehicle sales only, and it could be that those who are sensible enough not to buy a huge willy-compensating truck are also sensible enough to buy used rather than new.

America rediscovers the bicycle

This is a positive development:

America is known for its enduring love affair with the automobile. But in the last few years cities across the US have reported a surge in bicycle use, as people search for greener, healthier - and cheaper - transport options. The BBC's Daniel Nasaw looks at what Washington DC is doing to push two-wheeled travel.

America is a land of long distances, of thousands of virtually empty square miles of prairie, farmland and baking desert and frozen tundra.

US cities sprawl on a level unseen in Europe, Canada, and Australia, a consequence of transport priorities that have long favoured motor vehicles. And in all but a handful of US cities, it is virtually impossible to get by without a car.

But in recent years, amid widespread concern about US dependence on foreign oil, high petrol prices, signs of global warming and an obesity epidemic, a number of US cities have taken steps to increase bicycle usage.

These cities hope that by adding relatively low-cost bicycle lanes, bike parking and bike sharing programmes and making other city plan adjustments, they can lessen traffic congestion, reduce the strain on public transport, and promote healthier citizens.

From the Beeb. The biggest thing that stands out for me is the fact that Canadian and Australian cities themselves sprawl on a level that I'm pretty sure is unseen in Europe, which makes me wonder if American cities are really that much worse than ours, or if the author has a romanticized image of Canada and Australia. There doesn't seem to be a byline on the article, so I don't know if the author is from the UK, the US, or somewhere else. I kind of doubt s/he comes from Canada or Australia, though. Seriously; people commute to Toronto from Waterloo, and I've even heard of people driving from Stratford for crying out loud. That's 150 km each way, five days a week. Are the Americans worse than that??

Some bad news about the world's food supplies

A couple of stories today are worthy of concern. The first is this from the UK:

In a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the scientists warned that rising temperatures would make crops mature more quickly, reducing their yield, while extreme temperatures could also significantly reduce yields.

More droughts would affect crops, while more intense monsoon rains could lead to flooding and crop damage, the researchers said.

If nothing else, it's noteworthy that a paper as conservative as the Telegraph is covering this. Of course, they also happily report the proposed solutions:

But they said the worst effects of climate change could be limited by investment in better farming and the development of new drought resistant or heat tolerant crops. This could be done by aid money, breeding and new technologies like genetic modification (GM).

Hmm. While I'd support GM if it really turns out to be necessary, I'd prefer to see enough of an effort made to fight climate change that we can get by without it. But that's another story.

The second story on this issue is what's happening to the vast Murray-Darling Basin that spans four Australian states:

Farmers and small business owners are predicting the Murray-Darling Basin Authority's recommendation for massive water cuts will force a mass exodus from their communities.

The authority predicts the reductions in water allocations may result in losses of up to $1.1 billion a year to irrigated agriculture production, 800 job losses and significant social impacts across the basin.

But business leaders in the New South Wales Riverina town of Griffith say cuts of 43 per cent for their area mean, at worst, a loss of 5,000 jobs across the region.

They say there will need to be a big investment in mental health facilities for not only irrigators, but the wider community.

From the ABC. The Murray-Darling basin today, the American southwest tomorrow...

Gillard retains power in Australia

She's got enough support from the independents to hang on:

Prime Minister Julia Gillard says she will pump almost $10 billion into regional programs after today scraping back into power with the support of two key independents.

Ms Gillard has pledged to work tirelessly for the Australian people and says she will try and find common ground with the Coalition as Labor heads into its second term in government.

Two independents today broke the political deadlock by giving their votes to Ms Gillard in a Labor minority Government. She has advised Governor-General Quentin Bryce of the developments.

After more than a fortnight of suspense, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor revealed their intention to give Labor their crucial votes, meaning it has secured the 76 seats needed to rule.

The third independent, Bob Katter, had earlier decided to support the Coalition but it was not enough to install Tony Abbott as prime minister.

From the ABC.

First Australian Aboriginal in House of Representatives

Yes, the first, believe it or not:

An Aboriginal man has won a seat in Australia's House of Representatives, becoming the first indigenous person to do so in the country's history.

Ken Wyatt, 57, took the seat of Hasluck in Western Australia for the centre-right Liberal Party.

From the BBC (h/t jblaque in his Twitter account). Quite astonishing that it took till 2010 for this to happen.

Independents win significant concessions in Australia

It looks like the major parties are willing to do quite a lot to get the support of the independents:

They just had to ask. The three country independents got all they wanted from the PM. Tony Abbott's response was a little more qualified but they did well out of him too. There's nothing like desperation to make leaders generous to a fault to those whose support they need.

The most fundamental concession is that both Gillard and Abbott say they would not have an election before August 2013. Gillard is even willing to ''work with'' the independents in setting the precise date.

For those used to Victoria's fixed term, this mightn't seem much. But federally, terms are flexible and the PM's ability to decide election timing is an important power. Giving it away is no small thing.

From the Sydney Morning Herald. What's interesting, though, is what Abbott is not willing to agree to:

The scrapping today, however, will be over what Abbott would not agree to - the independents want his promises officially costed.

It's not surprising he is resisting this. If Treasury/Finance found holes in them - as is very likely - this would undermine not just Abbott's credibility but his pitch to the independents.

Interesting. And the fact that Gillard has not resisted this doesn't exactly make Abbott look very good... but assuming some coalition appears, that won't matter (it will probably be forgotten by the time the next election rolls around in three years). I'm inclined to think Gillard will ultimately get the nod from the independents actually; despite being ex-Nationals, they seem to be on poor terms with their former colleagues. Also, a Labour government could accomplish much more than a Liberal-National one, because the Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate and thus a Liberal-National government would have a hard time getting legislation through the upper house.

The thing is, whoever does form the government will likely have a majority of one, which will make for some interesting times. If nothing else, MPs on both sides of the house are likely to have excellent attendance in the next three years...

A side note -- those unfamiliar with the quirks of Australia's political system may find the coverage of this minority parliament particularly confusing, because the possibility exists of the independents forming a coalition with the Coalition. The existence of a long-term coalition between the urban and rural right (the Liberals and Nationals respectively) seems to be made possible by instant-runoff voting; the Liberals and Nationals simply trade preferences, whereas they'd be spoilers for each other under FPTP.

And a further tangent from that -- how would IRV play out if introduced in this country? I'm not entirely sure. At the federal level I suspect it would lead to a lot of NDP-Liberal coalitions, though at the provincial level I could see the Manitoba Liberals supporting the Tories rather than the NDP.

Minority parliament in Australia

It appears no party will be able to command a majority in the lower house of Australia's House of Representatives:

With a single seat, Hasluck in Western Australia, still in doubt, Labor has 73 and the Coalition 72 of the 150 seats in parliament's lower house.

Brisbane was this morning called for the Liberal National Party's Teresa Gambaro, unseating incumbent Labor MP Arch Bevis.

Denison in Tasmania was also in doubt, but was this morning declared for Labor by the Australian Electoral Commission, dashing the hopes of high-profile independent Andrew Wilkie for a surprise win.

In Hasluck, the sitting Labor member Sharryn Jackson trails the Liberals Ken Wyatt.

Tony Burke, the Gillard government's minister for sustainable population, says he has faith Mr Katter, Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor will reach a deal to form a stable government.

From the Sydney Morning Herald. This story raises several issues:

• Australia has almost 2/3 the population of Canada. So why does its lower house have less than half the number of seats? That doesn't sound like good local representation to me (and I thought that was the point of single-member constituencies!)
  
• The instant-runoff voting system used in Australia hasn't helped minor parties to the extent that the casual observer would expect. Sure, there are four independents, but only one Green has been elected, and nobody from the other parties. I have heard it claimed that IRV can be even more unfair than first past the post; these results seem to support that thesis. Their upper house has multi-member STV, and the Greens have the balance of power in that house, so it's not like they don't get support, but they are badly underrepresented in the lower house. Nick Clegg, take note!
• Regarding particular results, it seems that most of the independents are former Nationals, which could mean that, on the one hand, they'd be disinclined to support Labour if they could avoid it, but on the other hand, there may be some bad blood between them and the Liberals. If they do decide to support the Liberals, they'll have a hard time getting their agenda through the Senate, while if they support Labour it may not be for very long. So whatever government forms when the smoke clears is likely to be short lived.
  

Harper shuts down Parliament to avoid non-confidence vote

A lot of people say Canadian politics is boring. The events of the past week certainly give the lie to that belief, though. Our current political crisis is attracting substantial attention from the international media; interestingly, they're a lot more upfront about the situation than our own news outlets:

Canadian Parliament Closed in Bid to Keep Prime Minister in Power (New York Times)

Canada's PM clings on to power as parliament suspended (The Guardian)

Canadian PM suspends Parliament to avoid defeat (People's Daily)

It's pretty obvious to foreign journalists what Harper's real motives are. Of course, the domestic press wants to seem impartial (except the Sun Media papers; Winnipeg's example had the screaming headline "NO! NO! NO!" the other day).

The Economist has a nice piece on this. It's a reasonably fair summary; if I have any quibble it's that their treatment of the Bloc is a bit one-dimensional (yes, they are sovereigntists, but there's more to them than that).

Meanwhile, Sean in Ottawa, with a bit of help from josh, has this to say on babble:

Stephen Harper wants to shut down Parliament just because he does not agree with it.

Some say this is unprecedented.

In fact, Harper is following parliamentary tradition. Consider the following precedents:

1629: King Charles I in England
1799: Napoleon in France
1913: Victoriano Huerta in Mexico
1933: Adolf Hitler in Germany
1936: Fransisco Franco in Spain
1939: Benito Mussolini in Italy
1973: Augusto Pinochet in Chile

1975: Indira Gandhi in India

1999: Perez Musharaff in Pakistan
2008: Stephen Harper in Canada.

Maybe Harper should consider what happened to many of those leaders. In a similar vein is this video, courtesy of The Harper Dictatorship:



My suspicion is that over the holidays the Cons will temper the budget a bit, and the Liberals will get nervous and chicken out come the resumption of Parliament in January. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing; the budget will be less harsh than it would otherwise be, and the Cons will thus be in power just long enough to be blamed for the hard economic times that we're in for.

Canada isn't the only country facing a parliamentary crisis, though:

Politicians in Australia’s most populous state could be breath-tested for alcohol before voting on laws after a series of late-night incidents that have embarrassed the centre-left government.

New South Wales state lawmaker Andrew Fraser resigned from his conservative opposition frontbench role after shoving a female colleague at the Christmas party celebrations.

“Breath test this mob,” said a front page headline in Sydney’s mass-selling Daily Telegraph newspaper. State police minister Matt Brown was dumped from his portfolio in September after allegedly “dirty” dancing in his underwear over the chest of a female colleague after a drunken post-budget office party.

Conservative opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell said he would support alcohol breath tests for drunkenness for lawmakers before they entered parliament, while Green MPs John Kaye and Lee Rhiannon also backed the plan, along with the parliament’s speaker.

From the Times of India.

More economic and labour news

The doomsaying continues:

The global financial crisis could increase jobless numbers in OECD countries by eight million people, hit Canada with a recession and boost the country's unemployment rate to 7.5 per cent, according to a report.

The latest Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development outlook said Tuesday the world is entering the worst economic downturn in decades.

"We project that 21 out of 30 member economies of the OECD will go through a protracted recession of a magnitude which has not been seen since the early 1980s," said Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, the OECD chief economist.

The gloomy outlook predicts Canada's economy will shrink in the fourth quarter by 1.6 per cent and in the first and second quarters of 2009 by 1.4 per cent first and 0.3 per cent respectively, meaning the country will be in recession.

From the CBC. The OECD thinks, however, that other countries will have a harder time of it. The situation in the UK, for example, is not looking good:

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned of a "severe" economic downturn in the UK in 2009.

The Paris-based body has predicted that economic output in the UK will fall by 1.1% next year, more than any other major G7 country.

Unemployment in the UK is predicted to rise significantly to over 8% by end of 2009 from 5.5% in 2008.

Mr. Brown certainly has his work cut out for him; here's hoping his bold moves help. On the other hand, it looks like the "lucky country" may continue to be lucky for a while:

Australia will avoid a recession next year, one of only a handful of developed countries whose economy will continue to grow, a leading global think tank says.

As financial markets wrestle with the meaning of the latest last-ditch US bail-out - a $500 billion prop for the ailing banking giant Citigroup - the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts the richest economies in the world will shrink by a collective 0.4 per cent next year.

"Many OECD economies are in or are on the verge of a protracted recession of a magnitude not experienced since the early 1980s," the chief economist, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, said.

"As a result, the number of unemployed in the OECD area could rise by 8 million over the next two years."

Australia's economy is likely to grow by a relatively healthy 1.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, a Wayne Simpson, an economist at the U of M, is being interviewed on CBC Radio as I write this. He thinks Manitoba is better poised than just about anywhere in the world to weather the downturn, because we have a fairly diversified economy that doesn't have big boom and bust cycles. He thinks we may be in for a mild recession (particularly the resource sector of our economy; have you checked commodity prices lately?) but nothing compared to most of the developed world. Of course, any or all of these claims may turn out to be nonsense; it is, after all, economists who are making the predictions.

On another note, some of you may know that CUPE 3903, at York University, is on strike. Unfortunately, the domain name they wanted to use is being held by a cybersquatter, and they need the hits to go to the right place, obviously. So here's my shout out to them. Facebook users can also show their support here. Apparently they want to link the phrase "York University Strike Information" to their site, so here it is.