And then there were two?

Phil Edmonston thinks Chrysler's days are numbered:

When it comes to predicting the future of the Detroit Three automakers, outspoken consumer car critic Phil Edmonston doesn't mince words:

Chrysler Group LLC "is doomed." General Motors, if it survives, will be ratcheted down to one brand -- probably Chevrolet, and Ford, "has a future, for the time being."

Edmonston's pessimistic outlook is included in his 2010 Lemon-Aid New Cars and Trucks guide, which has been a key reference for new vehicle buyers over the past four decades. A former NDP member of Parliament, Edmontson, 65, has been a thorn in the side of automakers -- domestic and foreign -- taking them to task and, in some cases, to court over substandard quality and mechanical defects.

As U.S. and Canadian automakers and dealers face bankruptcy and unprecedented downsizing, the task of buying a car has become more precarious than ever, said Edmontson.

"These are treacherous and challenging times," Edmonston said in a phone interview from his home in Panama. Especially if you're considering buying a vehicle from a GM or Chrysler dealer, he warned.

"Chrysler buyers face huge risk of becoming orphan buyers," Edmonston said. The Auburn Hills, Mich., automaker -- which received billions in U.S. and Canadian bailout funds -- has no hope of long-term survival despite its partnership with Italian auto giant Fiat SpA.

"Chrysler hitching its wagon (and minivans) to Fiat will be like two drunks propping each other up," he said. "Both of them have inherent quality problems, and Fiat cannot 'Fiatize' Chrysler because you're looking at different platforms, different cultures.

From the Vancouver Sun.

On a clear day you can see General Motors...

...spiralling inexorably earthwards:

General Motors Corp [GM-N], nearing a Tuesday deadline to present a viability plan to the U.S. government, is considering as one option a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing that would create a new company, the Wall Street Journal said in its Saturday edition.

"One plan includes a Chapter 11 filing that would assemble all of GM's viable assets, including some U.S. brands and international operations, into a new company," the newspaper said. "The undesirable assets would be liquidated or sold under protection of a bankruptcy court. Contracts with bondholders, unions, dealers and suppliers would also be reworked."

Citing "people familiar with the matter," the story said that GM could also ask for additional government funds to stave off a bankruptcy filing.

GM declined to comment, the story said.

From the Globe and Mail. Of course, talk of bankruptcy might be simply another tactic to scare the government into handing them more bailout money, but it's noteworthy that Ford has not yet asked for money. But then, Ford's product line of late has been better than GM's, especially in Europe (a lot of people lament the fact that the European version of the Focus isn't sold on this side of the pond).

Even if GM files for Chapter 11, the company might continue running, though that would likely render their contracts with the UAW null and void... not a good situation if you've been working for them for 25 years and were hoping to retire on your pension. But consider this comment to the story:

Allan VCR from Vancouver, Canada writes: Best Option;
Chapter 11 for GM & Chapter 7 for Chrysler

Chapter 7, of course, means liquidation. It's possible under such circumstances for some divisions (e.g. Jeep) to be sold off as units and thus stay open, but the effect of this would still be dramatic, to say the least. And this sounds decidedly plausible; I bet the folks at Cerberus are kicking themselves for buying it, at least.

Thing is, though, the car industry is going to have to shrink, whether we like it or not; we can't afford the energy that goes in or the pollution that comes out. Too bad, but as Ray from Trailer Park Boys would say, "That's the fuckin' way she goes."