News roundup, 17 April 2026

- The continued war in Iran is causing serious concern for commercial aviation. Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency warns that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so [of] jet fuel left" and that flight cancellations may start to occur if the situation isn't resolved soon. And John Gradek of McGill University calls the situation the "worst crisis we've had in aviation, ever", pointing out that with 9/11 and the pandemic there was never an issue with supply.

- Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10 day ceasefire, with the possibility of extension if progress is made in the meantime. 

- Canada's federal government is considering acquiring more office space in order to accommodate the employees that they're forcing back to the office. Anything to prop up the commercial real estate sector I guess...

- Residents of Winnipeg's West Broadway neighbourhood are creating a community land trust which will buy up land and rent it out at affordable rates.

- The RCMP detachment in Thompson evidently did a rather substandard job of searching a teen they'd taken into custody in December 2024. It seems that they somehow overlooked the fact that he was carrying a gun; fortunately the firearm was not used and was later discovered hidden behind a toilet while the suspect was in court.

- Former Virginia lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax killed his wife and then himself on Wednesday night. The two were going through what was describe as a "complicated" divorce.

- Some residents of Peguis First Nation may need to evacuate as early as this weekend due to flooding.

- The singer D4vd has been charged with murder following an investigation into the discovery of the remains of a teenage girl in a car he owned. Why it took as long as it did to press charges is an interesting question.

News roundup, 23 March 2026

- An Air Canada CRJ-900 collided with a vehicle on the runway while landing at New York's LaGuardia Airport on Sunday night. The pilots were killed while 41 people were injured, nine of them seriously enough to remain in hospital as of this morning. There are reports that a controller cleared the vehicle to cross the runway, then abruptly tried to cancel the clearance before the collision.

- Iran is warning that if the US goes ahead with threats to target the country's power plants, there will be retaliatory strikes on water and energy infrastructure across the Middle East and that the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed until Iran's power plants are rebuilt.

- South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham is calling on Donald Trump to close bases in countries that won't allow them to be used in the attack on Iran.

- The International Energy Agency is recommending several measures for governments to take in order to deal with potential fuel shortages as a result of the war in Iran. These measures include lowering highway speed limits, allowing people to work from home where possible, and encouraging public transit use. The UK government is considering several of these measures, including reducing speed limits and even limiting where and when people can drive. Notably, there seems to be particular resistance to reinstating work from home; a representative of large British companies cited COVID-related "workplace friction between shopfloor staff and white-collar colleagues who could work remotely" as a reason for not wanting to allow it. Meanwhile China is expecting fewer disruptions than most countries, thanks to years of efforts to electrify transportation and build up strategic fuel reserves.

- Alberta separatists gathering signatures for an independence referendum have reportedly been claiming to be affiliated with Elections Alberta. They've also been accused of using food and family entertainment to induce people to attend signature-gathering events, which is illegal.

- The Socialist Party's Emmanuel Grégoire has won Paris' mayoralty race, beating rightwing candidate Rachida Dati in a runoff. Grégoire previously served as deputy mayor under outgoing mayor Anne Hidalgo. This is reassuring news to those who want to see Paris' recent transformation continue. The left also scored wins in other major cities but lost out to the far right in smaller communities. The right's failure to gain traction in big cities despite the best efforts of a billionaire donor is reassuring.

- A Georgia woman has been charged with murder after taking abortion drugs to terminate her pregnancy.

- A Polish court has ruled that the country must recognize the union between two Polish men who married in Germany. The rightwing Law and Justice party (PiS) is apoplectic at the ruling, with the party's parliamentary leader Mariusz Błaszczak calling it "an attack on the family". The party will be filing an appeal with the country's Constitutional Tribunal.

More oil news...

Further to yesterday's post about peak oil, the International Energy Agency is very concerned about what will happen as the price rises:

Recovery in the world's biggest economies could be jeopardized if crude oil prices stay over $80 (U.S.) per barrel, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

The IEA also reported that OPEC posted the first “significant drop” in output in March in more than a year – falling 190,000 barrels per day to 29 million barrels a day – largely due to a near 10-per cent drop in Iraqi output.

The agency, the energy arm of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a grouping of the world's richest nations, said concerns remain that global oil markets are “overheated,” with crude around $85 per barrel.

“Ultimately, things might turn messy for producers if $80-100 (per barrel) is merely seen as the new $60-80 (per barrel), stunting economic recovery while prompting resurgent non-oil and non-OPEC supply investment,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

From the Globe. The use of the word "overheated" is interesting, as it would seem to suggest that the current oil prices don't reflect fundamentals. But if peak oil is as close as yesterday's post suggests, oil might well be undervalued. Also interesting is the comment about "resurgent non-oil and non-OPEC supply investment"; they seem to think this is a bad thing. Admittedly, some of it is (given that it could include stuff like the tar sands, coal liquefaction, etc) but this could also include proper investment in better alternatives. I have my doubts that the IEA wants this, though. Indeed, they've been accused of distorting their numbers to avoid rocking the boat, presumably because it might lead to investment in alternatives before the established energy companies can corner the market.

Peak oil - when?

Almost everyone knows, deep down, that the amount of oil on the Earth is finite. The question is when it will run out. Actually we'll have a problem, economically speaking, long before it actually runs out, because the price of oil will skyrocket, and like it or not our economy, as things stand now, is heavily dependent on the stuff. From an environmental point of view this would be a good thing, because it would virtually force us to reduce our CO₂ emissions, but the transition will be tough on a lot of people.

Given this, one would hope that the experts have reliable information. After all, if we have an idea when oil production will peak, we can plan ahead for it and work to reduce our dependency. So how reliable is the information that they have?

The debate has intensified in recent weeks after whistleblowers claimed the IEA figures were unreliable and subject to political manipulation – something the agency categorically denies. But the subject of oil reserves touches not just energy and climate change policy but the wider economic scene, because hydrocarbons still oil the wheels of international trade.

Even the Paris-based IEA admits that the world still needs to find the equivalent of four new Saudi Arabias to feed increasing demand at a time when the depletion rate in old fields of the North Sea and other major producing areas is running at 7% year on year.

From the Guardian. We'll have to see where this goes; if the peak comes when the experts aren't prepared, things could get rather ugly.