News roundup, 23 May 2025

- A new study suggests that even if the increase in global temperatures is limited to 1.5°C (which seems increasingly unlikely), it's not going to be enough to prevent sea levels from rising by a centimetre per year by the end of the century. If the present course is maintained, it will be far worse - an eventual rise of up to 12 metres. For perspective, about 230 million people live no more than a metre above the current sea level, and a billion are within 10 metres. This would lead to a lot of migration, and the brutal truth of the matter is that if this migration can't be prevented by cutting emissions, it will be stopped with guns. That said, every fraction of a degree still matters, not least because it will mean fewer people getting shot at borders than there otherwise would be.

- On a somewhat more positive note, the deforestation rate in Brazil dropped by over 30% in 2024 compared to the previous year. Note, however, this only factors in intentional deforestation; losses due to wildfires reached record levels last year.

- The Trump regime is prohibiting international students from enrolling at Harvard University because the institution refuses to hand over information about some current students to the Department of Homeland Security.

- The US Senate's parliamentarian, a nonpartisan staffer tasked with the interpretation of Senate rules, has been overruled after advising that the revocation of California's waiver that gives it the power to regulate vehicle emissions was probably illegal. The last time the parliamentarian has been overruled was in 1975. Now I must admit to be a bit torn here, because the specific decision had to do with the body's filibuster rules, which I've generally thought should be scrapped as they often stop progressive initiatives. And seeing that these rules don't seem to be stopping reactionary initiatives, they should probably still be scrapped (or rather not re-adopted if and when the US becomes a functioning democracy again).

- TD's chief economist, Beata Caranci, is predicting that Canada will go into recession this year, and that some 100,000 jobs could be lost as a result.

- The Canadian Union of Postal Workers has opted for a work-to-rule campaign rather than a strike, for the time being. Significant service disruptions are expected to result simply as a result of workers refusing overtime.

- The Rural Municipality of Prairie Lakes in southern Manitoba has introduced a "one lake, one boat" policy, which will require visitors bringing boats to Pelican Lake to have the boats inspected for zebra mussels for a $40 fee. Naturally businesses are complaining, but such measures are sometimes necessary.

- Elon Musk's AI chatbot, Grok, has started injecting its answers with propaganda about "white genocide" in South Africa - even when the question had nothing to do with South Africa or race. This certainly underscores the need for regulation of AI; unfortunately in the US the prospects for that have dimmed as legislation to prevent the regulation of AI for at least 10 years has cleared the House and moved on to the Senate.

- Recycling collection in Winnipeg was disrupted yesterday due to an unexpected closure of the material recovery facility where recyclables are taken. The plant was closed for a police investigation after plant staff found a dead guy on the premises.

News roundup, 19 Nov 2024

- Donald Trump's list of picks for his cabinet was never going to be something sane and reasonable people would like, but some of his picks have been described by critics as "political performance art", choosing some of the most hardline and extreme people as a way of "owning the libs". Choosing a possible sex offender as Attorney General? A possible Russian asset as head of intelligence? An antivax nutter as Secretary of Health? With most countries, the rest of the world could just ignore them or look on with pity, but when it's the country with the world's reserve currency (not to mention the world's largest military), it's kind of hard to ignore.

- A bill before the US House of Representatives, the so-called "Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act", would empower the Secretary of the Treasury to unilaterally declare a nonprofit as a "terrorist supporting organization" and revoke its tax-exempt status. While the majority of Democrats oppose the bill, a significant minority do not; coincidentally a lot of pro-Israel groups are lobbying for its passage, so I think we all know where this is going. The fact that the Secretary of the Treasury is soon going to be an as-yet unnamed Trump appointee in a couple of months does not faze that lot in the slightest.

- Russia continues to make gains in Ukraine, but at a high cost in terms of casualties. They are now cutting back on payments to wounded soldiers. Of course, in all likelyhood all they have to do is hold out until January and Ukraine's weapon supplies will be seriously curtailed, but at least Russia may suffer enough damage to limit their conquests to one country. That's about the best one can hope for, in today's world. Meanwhile the US has authorized the transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine, and Russia has responded by threatening a nuclear response to any "massive aerial attack". This may be a bluff but Germany doesn't want to take any chances and is unwilling to give Ukraine such weapons.

- The European Union recently brought forward a policy to address deforestation by requiring importers to prove that supply chains for their products do not cause deforestation anywhere in the world. Unfortunately their parliament is delaying the legislation and seems set to weaken it to placate said importers.

- A Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 was hit by gunfire as it prepared to take off from Dallas on a flight to Indianapolis. Nobody was hurt, and the aircraft returned safely to the terminal and was removed from service for repairs.

- A student in Michigan who was asking Gemini, the Google AI chatbot, for homework advice was suddenly hit with an admonition to "Please die". One wonders if the chatbot may have been subject to some sort of priming by the 4chan crowd. I hope that this is the case; alternative explanations are even more worrisome.

News roundup, 4 April 2024

- Apparently Donald Trump, having managed to get the $454 million bond for his appeal of the civil fraud trial in New York reduced to $175 million, has not yet provided a current financial statement as required. Some discussion of this here; whether this will be sorted out in time to prevent asset seizures remains to be seen. In other Trump-related news, he seems to be testing the limits of the gag order imposed by Judge Juan Merchan.

- Joe Biden has called for an "immediate ceasefire" following the deaths of seven aid workers in Gaza, saying that US policy "will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps". He's been careful, of course, not to threaten anything specific; AIPAC is always watching.

- There have been substantial reductions in deforestation in Brazil and Columbia, but unfortunately this is offset by losses elsewhere in the tropics.

- Geoengineering, which is increasingly looking like it may be necessary to avoid the worst effects of climate change, has some serious issues of its own. Perhaps the biggest risk is that geoengineering activity in one country could potentially affect its neighbours, possibly in ways that are harmful to them and thus increasing the risk of armed conflict. Or, a natural disaster could be mistakenly attributed to geoengineering, with the same result.

- In northern Manitoba, leaders are trying to prepare for what could potentially be a very bad wildfire season due to the dry winter.

- A Hamilton man has been jailed after livestreaming himself assaulting someone and unleashing a vicious transphobic rant on a city bus. You'd think anyone with an IQ above room temperature would know better than to record their crimes, but there you go.

News roundup, 19 March 2024

- It's almost a given that living in a great international city (Hong Kong, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Dubai, etc) will be very expensive. Almost, but not quite; Paris has managed to remain remarkably affordable. The secret - government investment in housing. Around 25% of the city's residents live in public housing. Of course, you also need to take action against people who fraudulently represent themselves as being entitled to subsidized housing, like a bunch of folks in Victoria seem to have done.

- An analysis by the US National Institute of Health of "Havana syndrome", the mysterious illness that affected American and Canadian diplomats in Havana and other capitals has found no evidence of anything physically wrong with the afflicted people. This lends a fair bit of support to the mass hysteria theory, though as a caveat it's worth noting that some neurological conditions (most famously chronic traumatic encephalopathy) are only detectable in an autopsy.

- Winnipeg Transit's community safety team are getting good reviews from bus drivers and passengers so far. The Winnipeg Police union, though, shows no sign of withdrawing the grievance they filed about the team in January; in fact, I suspect the success of the team in showing how problem passengers can be apprehended without shooting them is probably adding to their displeasure.

- The Kinew government has introduced a bill to prohibit the use of strikebreakers in legal strikes and lockouts, as well as to make it easier to join a union. Predictably, the Tories are doing their utmost to delay the bill's passage.

- The American Bullfrog is native to eastern North America but is an invasive species in the west, including in California. People keep importing them for food; a proposed ban on further importation is causing concern by some that it is culturally insensitive to those who eat them.

- BC is warning its residents to be prepared for a "prolonged wildfire season" this year.

- Europe is banning imports related to deforestation starting next year. This includes a ban on products such as palm oil that originates on land that was deforested after 2020. Malaysian and Indonesian officials are fulminating about what they call "regulatory imperialism". No doubt there's an element of injustice here given that once again it's developing countries having to pay the price for damage that until recently has mostly been done by rich countries, but the obvious counterargument is that deforestation isn't going to bring justice to those countries anyway - quite the opposite.

- The scientist who was fired from the National Microbiology Lab in 2021 has been located in China.

- A Winnipeg attorney has been suspended for "conduct unbecoming a lawyer" after she was convicted of impaired driving and assault with a weapon after ramming another vehicle in a road rage episode.

News roundup, 15 Jan 2024

- A new poll suggests that Joe Biden has a four point lead over Donald Trump in Michigan.

- Historian Ian Lustick comments that Israel has never ended hostilities with the Palestinians on its own, but only when pressured to do so from outside (most often the US), and doesn't expect anything different this time. Unfortunately the prospects for this in the near future are not good, especially now that the Biden administration is preoccupied with the election campaign. This doesn't bode well for Palestinians in the near future, nor even for Israelis - most recently, two of the hostages taken in October have been killed (whether by Hamas or by an Israeli airstrike is being disputed), and terrorist attacks continue as well.

- As mentioned a few days back, placing a tax on soft drinks is effective in reducing the consumption of said drinks. Boulder is going a step further - they are using the revenue to provide low-income folks with coupons to buy more nutritious food. So you have a carrot (literally) in addition to a stick.

- Speaking of taxes, even fiscal conservatives see the need to raise property taxes in Toronto. TVO's Steve Lafleur points out that even with the increase Toronto's property taxes will be among the lowest in the region, and that municipalities tend to run a pretty tight ship anyway, so there's not a lot of "fat" to trim.

- In the US, fishers are required to pay the salary of observers from the National Marine Fisheries Service who ride along on their boats. This is now going to the US Supreme Court; whatever one thinks of that particular rule, rightwing opponents of regulation of any sort are latching onto the case in the hope of getting a decision that will tie the hands of federal regulators.

- A recent study indicates that agriculture is by far the biggest driver of deforestation around the world. Beef alone is responsible for 41% of deforestation in the tropics; oilseeds (including soy as well as palm) are responsible for 18%. Note that much of the soy grown in the tropics is grown as cattle feed; if it were fed to humans directly rather than to cattle a lot less of it would be needed.

- In California, a new law passed by referendum in 2018 has just taken effect, requiring that meat sold in the state (whether raised domestically or imported) must meet minimum standards of care. Pregnant sows, for instance, have typically been kept in crates too small for them to even turn around, but under the new law they must be provided with a minimum of 24 ft² of space. Space requirement are also increased for hens and veal calves. The industry fought it all the way to the Supreme Court and lost; they are now hoping for the feds to intervene. Unfortunately there are a lot of exemptions, notably that it doesn't apply to processed meat like sausages, nor does it apply to meat that is sold outside the state.

- Poland gets about 70% of its electricity from coal-fired plants, but the new government there hopes to change that. 

- A Russian command aircraft was shot down and another heavily damaged over the Sea of Azov. 

- Italy's culture minister is under investigation for possessing, and exhibiting, a stolen 17th century painting.