Aftermath

So some of my predictions didn't turn out so well. In retrospect, some of it was predictable (Rod Giesbrecht's role as a spoiler in Elmwood-East Kildonan, for instance). The overall makeup of council hasn't really changed much (in effect, the left lost Elmwood-EK but gained Mynarski). And of course Katz was reelected. And the turnout was high in spite of bad weather, which usually indicates an appetite for change, but here it didn't. So what happened?

I'm not sure, but I suspect that those awful shootings in the North End played a role. Yes, they happened under Katz's watch, but that doesn't matter; the right has been extremely effective in branding themselves as the ones who can solve the problem. They've been so effective in this branding effort that people ignore the evidence when they're sufficiently scared. (For similar reasons, deficits seem to help the right, even when they happen under right wing governments). The high turnout is probably partly explicable by people coming out in hope of voting for Judy, but part of it is people from the suburbs coming out to vote out of fear of Judy. Presumably they think that there'd be a veritable explosion of crime if she occupied the Mayor's office. Whatever...

Some guesses for the municipal election

Bartley Kives, in this Free Press article, makes some predictions about how things will play out tomorrow (about halfway down, though the whole article is worth reading). In some cases I have opinions on the matter myself.

Charleswood-Tuxedo: With seven candidates and no incumbent, this would seem to be about as wide open as it gets. Kives considers Havixbeck and Hannah to be the top contenders. My money would be on Havixbeck, since the Tory machine will be working for her, and when you have that many candidates it is a advantageous to have a lot of volunteers to pull the vote.

Mynarski: Again, we have a freshly vacated ward with a large field of candidates. Here, though, turnout is traditionally low, and thus having a lot of volunteers is even more critical. And the NDP has never had a shortage of volunteers. For this reason, I'm calling this one for Eadie.

Elmwood-East Kildonan: Kives calls it a three way race. I'm inclined to narrow it down to Robinson or Giesbrecht; Steen might have a better chance if he didn't open his mouth. In theory, Robinson should have this in the bag, but Giesbrecht is doing dangerously well. This could go either way.

Old Kildonan: Kives thinks Sharma has the edge; I don't know enough about that race to agree or disagree.

Daniel McIntyre: Kives goes no further than to predict that "one of the three lefties" (Smith, Bellamy, or Gilroy-Price) will win. Myself I'd give the edge to Bellamy, both due to the aforementioned organizational factor and due to the fact that Wolseley seems pretty solidly in his camp (and face it, Wolseley has a higher turnout than the West End). But Smith is not to be underestimated either.

River Heights-Fort Garry: Kives puts this as impossible to predict. To my mind it mostly turns on how annoyed people really are about those traffic circles; if Orlikow loses River Heights he's done for. But this may turn out to be a case of much ado about nothing; I do see a fair number of letters and comments defending the circles. Tough call.

St. Norbert: Kives figures a major upset would be necessary to unseat Swandel, but he considers this a possibility. He implies that this would imply a shift to the left; however, it could equally happen through a generalized shift against incumbents. In that case, his prediction -- that Swandel could only lose in a situation where the right gets severely stomped -- might be unsound. If Swandel and Orlikow are both defeated in an anti-incumbent wave, for instance, the net effect on the balance of power is zero.

St. Charles: This is another race that I know too little to challenge Kives' comments (essentially that Nordman has the edge but that Dobson has a chance).

Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Strangely, Kives lists this as a race where the incumbent could lose, although he thinks it unlikely. Myself, I would have no hesitation about calling it for Gerbasi.

St. James-Brooklands: Kives also lists this as one where there's an outside chance of defeating the incumbent. I call this for Fielding.

Point Douglas, St. Boniface, St. Vital, and Transcona: I can't really argue with Kives' contention that these are "virtually locks", though I don't know enough about St. Vital to say I agree with him on that one either.

OK, but what about the big one? Kives makes no prediction here, but what about me? Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I'm going to call this one for Judy. The thing is, there's a huge force of volunteers supporting the NDP-backed candidates, and most of the votes they pull will go to Judy. In addition, some of their opponents are as well. For instance, regardless of whether Harvey Smith or Keith Bellamy takes Daniel McIntyre, both of them are going to be getting a lot of people out to vote, and nearly all of those folks will vote for Judy. The situation with existing patterns of voter turnout is a bit murkier; in southern and suburban parts of the city, which tend to favour Katz, turnout tends to be higher. On the other hand, among identified supporters, this poll has concluded that Judy's supporters are more committed to actually getting to the polls than Sam's. Naturally, polls can be wrong (see Ford's margin of victory in Toronto for an example) but I think Winnipeg might finally break out of its long cycle of reelecting mayors until they retire (or die). Here's hoping...

Anti-incumbent sentiment strong in much of Ontario

Notwithstanding the fact that Hazel McCallion was reelected with a huge margin (along with her counterparts in Brampton, Oakville, Markham, Richmond Hill and Ajax) there was quite a strong shift against incumbents. Vaughan's mayor, and several veteran councillors, went down to defeat yesterday, and so did the mayors of Burlington, Hamilton, and Oshawa. Five incumbent Toronto councillors, representing the right as well as the left, were defeated. Outside of the 905, the mayors of London, Ottawa, Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay all went down as well.

Now I'd be more than happy to see this pattern repeat itself in Winnipeg tomorrow, but there's something about this that makes me a bit uneasy. The fact that this trend has victims across the political spectrum suggests that instead of voting for a clear platform (or even against one) they're voting against anyone they perceive as being too experienced. Under this mentality, once a politician gains sufficient experience to figure out how to do the job, he or she should be gotten rid of immediately. It's no coincidence that "vote out all incumbents" is a common cry from teabaggers, who would like nothing better than to insure that governments are unable to actually do anything. And consider this -- teabaggers are always going on about the need for term limits, but balk at campaign spending limits. Apparently it's better to stop someone from running at all, than to limit the amount they can spend on their campaign. And guess who that tends to favour?

So tomorrow, Winnipeggers, I'd like you to vote out Sam Katz, but don't do it simply because he's the incumbent. Do it because he sucks, and because Judy will be good.

A guide to Toronto's mayoral candidates

Courtesy of the Star. Some highlights:

Taxes: Ford wants to abolish the land transfer tax, while Smitherman and Pantalone want to keep it. The situation with property taxes is interesting. As noted previously, Smitherman is actually even more aggressive than Ford on this issue - he wants to freeze them, while Ford merely wants to index them to inflation.

Transit: Ford, much like Katz in Winnipeg, wants to tear up the existing plans and renegotiate. Pantalone wants to continue, while Smitherman actually wants to add to existing plans.

Other environmental issues: Both Pantalone and Smitherman scored high here (20 and 18 out of 20 respectively). Ford didn't bother to answer the questionnaire.

Contracting out: Pantalone wants to freeze it; both Ford and Smitherman want to do it. Of the two, Smitherman is arguably worse than Ford, since he is open to contracting out bus routes in addition to garbage and recycling.

Debt: Pantalone figures there are higher priorities, and that the debt can be kept constant. Both Ford and Smitherman want to actively reduce it by selling city assets.

Hiring of staff: None of them advocate massive layoffs. Pantalone wishes to continue the present policy, which is to simply evaluate whether it's necessary to fill a given vacancy. Ford and Smitherman are much more aggressive here, wanting to eliminate 1,500 and 1,300 jobs, respectively, by attrition.

Size of council: Pantalone and Smitherman want to leave well enough alone, while Ford wants to cut it in half.

Looking at it in this way, Smitherman does seem to be somewhat preferable to Ford overall, and I certainly think the venom that some have directed towards those who advocate tactical voting is a bit excessive. Nonetheless, I still think Smitherman would remain mayor for a lot longer than Ford would if elected, and that could be a negative in itself. So I'd still urge progressive Torontonians to hold out for Joe.

Katz's lead vanishes

For the first time, the incumbent has a serious fight on his hands:

THE race for mayor of Winnipeg is now a statistical dead heat. Incum­bent Sam Katz has lost the polling lead he held all year and is now even with challenger Judy Wasylycia-Leis.

According to a Probe Research poll conducted in late September exclu­sively for the Free Press, Wasylycia-Leis is the preferred choice of 50 per cent of Winnipeg voters. Katz sits three points behind with 47 per cent support and Brad Gross and Rav Gill garnered the remaining three per cent. The mar­gin of error for these results is 4.7 per cent.

From the Free Press. Suddenly, Katz looks like he could actually lose, and in any case the campaign will be a lot more interesting from this point on.

Wyatt urges vote on city sales tax

Interesting:

Would you be willing to pay an extra penny on a can of Coke if all the cash went toward Winnipeg's crumbling roads, bridges and buildings?

That question -- or a more legalistic version of it -- will be on Winnipeg's civic election ballot next month if Transcona Coun. Russ Wyatt has his way.

The quixotic councillor wants city council to add a referendum question to the Oct. 27 ballot, asking Winnipeggers to support a one per cent municipal sales tax that would be dedicated to infrastructure renewal.

From the Free Press. Is a municipal sales tax a good idea? Maybe, maybe not. I'd like to see a municipal income tax, but I don't think municipalities have the legal authority to levy income taxes. Failing that, a sales tax might be a good idea; while sales taxes are somewhat regressive, not having enough revenue to pay for programs is far more regressive.

What's interesting is that Wyatt, as well as Judy Wasylycia-Leis, is willing to put the idea of tax increases on the table. Maybe people are finally noticing that a permanent tax freeze has consequences, and are willing to accept that a small tax increase might be necessary. Then again, it could be that Judy and Russ (and me, for that matter) have fallen into wishful thinking. We'll have to see.

Ford still working to undermine himself

The guy would be better off if he just shut up:

The man who would be Toronto mayor yesterday questioned the value of immigrants in the City of Immigrants. He said Tuesday he wants no more newcomers because we can’t manage our current population and an influx will add chaos upon existing chaos. And in case you think he’s being exclusionary, he assured us Wednesday that once he gets the city’s fiscal house in order he will reopen the doors.

Hmmm. With pronouncements like that, no wonder fiscal conservatives were begging John Tory to enter the race and give them a palatable option on the political right.

It was always anticipated that the more Ford spoke, the less voters would like him. The controversial councillor is living up to expectation.

This was no slip-up; it’s vintage Ford — direct, impolitic sand in your eye. When will it begin to wear thin on Toronto voters?

Opponent George Smitherman has spent considerable ammunition — some say, too much — attacking Ford on everything, small and great. He thinks, finally, this is the “turning point in the election.”

From the Star. One would hope this, more than an old drunk driving conviction, would be the thing to derail his campaign. However, that's really secondary; the most important thing is that his campaign gets derailed somehow...

Have Torontonians lost their minds?

I'd assumed that Ford's impressive record of saying and doing dumb shit would erode his support. Not so apparently:

Rob Ford has taken a lead in the race for mayor of Toronto, according to the first new poll to be released in two months.

The Etobicoke councillor has the backing of 37.6 per cent of decided voters and a nearly nine-point lead over George Smitherman, who enjoys 28.7 per cent support.

The Pollstra Research poll puts Joe Pantalone at 15.5 per cent and Sarah Thomson at 10.3 per cent; Rocco Rossi has slipped into last place at 7.9 per cent.

Thirty-two per cent of voters remain undecided, the poll found.

From the Globe. What the devil is the matter with those people?

Chinese consulate predics result of Toronto mayoral election

Amusing:

The Chinese consulate seems to be stepping into Toronto’s mayoral race by sending one candidate — George Smitherman —to speak at an “international mayors’ forum on tourism” in central China.

The four-day, expenses-paid trip starting Thursday, which includes a side trip to World Expo 2010 in Shanghai, is raising eyebrows because Smitherman has never held city office.

“The Chinese consulate is showing favouritism toward one mayoral candidate and that’s not very diplomatic,” said rival Giorgio Mammoliti, adding: “If Smitherman wants to go to China and pretend to be an expert on tourism, so be it.”

From the Star. Of course, the consulate is simply making an educated guess about who they'll be dealing with come fall, but it comes across as kind of presumptuous. Still, worse things have happened.

My dad told me once that before the 1988 federal election, a US official was asked by media about the progress of the Canada-US free trade agreement, and in explaining that the issue would be more settled after the election, casually mentioned the date of the election, before it was called. If true, this would mean that the Mulroney government told a foreign power about when they would call the election, before telling the Canadian people. That's far worse than a consulate speculating about who would win...

A supremely bad idea

I generally like Joe Pantalone. However, one of the policies he's proposing for his mayoral campaign deserves to be rejected out of hand:

Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone says that, if elected to the top job, he’ll let people vote from their BlackBerry or home computer in 2014, and push the province to allow some non-citizens to help choose the mayor.

From the Star. I understand that he wants to increase voter turnout, but doesn't he remember all the controversy over electronic voting in American elections? And don't forget, part of the reason many people don't vote is that they don't think their vote matters. Such people aren't likely to feel any better about the usefulness of their vote if they figure that the election could be easily rigged, are they?

Additionally (though this is secondary to the main concern) these sorts of things always have teething problems. Centre Wellington experimented with voting by phone in the 2000 election, and the result was a huge fiasco; the lines were overloaded and many people were disenfranchised as a result. It's telling that the township's website no longer seems to have any reference to telephone voting; I guess they've learned their lesson, and Toronto should as well.

Judy's in the race

Judy Wasylycia-Leis, as expected, has filed her papers to run for Mayor. Interestingly, none other than Sharon Carstairs is going to serve as her campaign co-chair. It's going to be a heck of a campaign for sure. It will also be interesting to see who else shows up at her official campaign launch (tomorrow at 11:30 AM at the Tower Atrium at the Forks, in case anyone's wondering).

Wasylycia-Leis considers running for mayor

Rumours have been flying about this for a while, and now it's being reported in the press:

The race for mayor in Winnipeg just got a little busier, as federal NDP health critic Judy Wasylycia-Leis says she's thinking about running against Sam Katz this fall.

The Winnipeg North MP is mulling the prospect of returning from Ottawa to challenge Katz in the October civic election.

"A lot of people have been raising it with me and asking me to consider running. I'm certainly going to give it some thought," she said Wednesday.

An MP since 1997, Wasylycia-Leis, 58, served as a Manitoba MLA from 1986 to 1993 and held a pair of cabinet posts under Howard Pawley's provincial NDP government. But she has never held municipal office in Winnipeg and concedes she did not consider running for mayor before she was approached in late 2009.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. While I think Wasylycia-Leis would make an outstanding mayor, I don't think she should run right now. Why? For one very simple reason, conveniently pointed out in the article -- it's been over fifty years since an incumbent mayor was defeated in this city, and as sad as this sounds, Katz is popular enough that the pattern is unlikely to be broken this time round. So why would I want a good MP to step down, only to face likely defeat in a run for the mayor's office? And the fact that Lillian Thomas is already in the race seals the deal, as there would be a split in the left of centre vote.

What the left should be doing is focusing on getting more good people on council. That way, maybe Katz would get frustrated and not run again, whereupon Wasylycia-Leis or another worthy candidate could run and actually have a good chance of winning.