Katz in the lead again, but support soft -- poll

The latest poll has incumbent Sam Katz back in the lead:

Mayor Sam Katz has a six-point lead on Judy Wasylycia-Leis as Winnipeg's mayoral race enters the home stretch, but a more committed core of support for the challenger suggests election night may be a nail-biter.

Katz enjoys the support of 38 per cent of Winnipeg voters while Wasylycia-Leis has 32 per cent, according to a Leger Marketing telephone survey commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CBC News.

Source. While this might be good news for Katz, there's a complication:

Survey respondents were asked to rate their interest in the race, on a scale of one to 10. The average interest for a Wasylycyia-Leis supporter was 6.5 out of 10, while Katz supporters averaged 5.4 out of 10, Scholz said.

Furthermore, 25 per cent of Wasylycia-Leis supporters rated their interest at nine or 10 out of 10, compared to only nine per cent of Katz supporters who did so.

"Her voters are significantly more interested in this election than his voters," Scholz said.

"That means her voters are more likely to come out than his are. If there's anything to prevent them, such as bad weather or a TV show, there's a good chance he's not going to get the vote out."

So, if Judy's campaign is able to keep things moving (not to mention the campaigns of council candidates who are onside with her) she has an excellent chance of winning.

Winnipeg mayoral poll

OK, this is old news (hey, I was taking a break, so sue me) but this past Saturday a poll came out in the Free Press on the declared and hypothetical candidates for mayor, with the following results:

Sam Katz: 51%

Judy Wasylycia-Leis: 36%

Russ Wyatt: 7%

Dave Angus: 5%

Lillian Thomas: 2%

Hmm. Seeing that brings to mind this article from the Uniter a couple of weeks back:

Normally, I would be overjoyed to hear that Judy Wasylycia-Leis is even considering a run for mayor. Having met her on a few occasions, I know that she is unbelievably qualified to run this city. But as history shows, anyone taking on the incumbent faces an uphill battle. Only once in Winnipeg’s history has a sitting mayor been defeated, and in the last election Katz won by more than double the vote of his nearest rival.

On the other hand, if anyone can defeat Katz, Wasylycia-Leis has a better chance than most. Should she run? I don't know.

Incidentally, yesterday's Hansard includes this intriguing tidbit (scroll down to Kevin's question about the community health centre):

Mr. Kevin Lamoureux (Inkster): Mr. Speaker, my question is for the Minister of Health.

For well over 30 years the Nor'West Community Health Centre has provided valuable services to thousands of residents in Winnipeg's North End, and, in fact, beyond.

Mr. Speaker, there's been an expectation for the last number of years that there would be an access centre which would be able to expand medical services to the residents of Winnipeg's North End, and there's a sense of frustration that the government is once again overlooking the needs of Winnipeg's North End.

My question to the Minister of Health: What can she tell us today, given the budget documents that have been released, that could provide some encouragement to the residents of the Winnipeg north in regards to this access centre that they have been promised for a number of years already?

My emphasis in the last paragraph, of course. I can't help but think someone is itching for a by-election.

Poll suggests voters approve of Obamacare

Wonder how the teabaggers will react to this?

More Americans now favor than oppose the health care overhaul that President Obama signed into law Tuesday, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds — a notable turnaround from surveys before the vote that showed a plurality against the legislation.

By 49%-40%, those polled say it was "a good thing" rather than a bad one that Congress passed the bill. Half describe their reaction in positive terms — as "enthusiastic" or "pleased" — while about four in 10 describe it in negative ways, as "disappointed" or "angry."

The largest single group, 48%, calls the legislation "a good first step" that needs to be followed by more action. And 4% say the bill itself makes the most important changes needed in the nation's health care system.

From USA Today.

UK to get a taste of minority parliaments?

The opinion polls are starting to look that way:

A ComRes survey for the Independent showed the Tory lead over Labour narrowing to five points in the past month. A YouGov survey for the Sun gave the Tories a seven-point margin, well up on the weekend's low of two but still short of the double-digit lead David Cameron needs to be confident of a Commons majority.

Both surveys were conducted before the Tory peer and fundraiser Lord Ashcroft revealed he had "non-dom" tax status yesterday.

The polls reinforce the recent trend showing Labour gaining ground on the Tories as the election, expected on 6 May, approaches.

The Independent survey was taken over the weekend, when Cameron admitted to his party's spring conference that the Conservatives faced a "real fight" to win power.

While the findings give the Tories a bigger share of the popular vote, the poll rating suggests Labour would be returned to government with the most MPs under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

This would leave Labour short of an outright majority, however, and so it would be forced to strike deals with the smaller parties for support on controversial issues.

Fears of a hung parliament sent sterling temporarily to a nine-month low against the dollar yesterday following another YouGov poll at the weekend suggesting the Tory lead was down to just two points.

From the Guardian. Depending on how far short Labour falls, who would be the most likely partner in a coalition or accord? I'm thinking the Liberal Democrats (if Labour isn't too far short of a majority, Respect is a theoretical possibility, but that seems like too much to hope for). What kind of concessions might the Lib Dems extract? This could have interesting consequences, especially if electoral reform is on the table.

UK Conservatives may be losing their edge

They're still ahead of Labour, but they might not get the majority they want:

The ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph sees the Conservative lead narrowing since last month with David Cameron's party down one point on 39 per cent, Labour unchanged on 30 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up two on 20 per cent.

If repeated in at the general election there would be a hung parliament, with the Tories around 14 seats short of a majority. It is the first ICM poll to put the party below 40 per cent since last June, when the party lost support in the wake of the MPs' expenses scandal.

Source. This could get interesting, depending on how insistent the Liberal Democrats are about matters such as electoral reform and the status of the House of Lords.

Canadians' views on crime are hardening, poll finds

I guess the folks at Sun Media and City TV are proud of themselves:

A nation that has traditionally thought of itself as liberal and forgiving is adopting a hard line on crime and punishment – including the death penalty.

This hardening attitude among Canadians is revealed in a new Angus Reid public opinion survey that found 62 per cent of respondents favour capital punishment for murderers, while 31 per cent believe that rapists should be put to death.

The figure is a significant boost from the last such survey, in 2004, when 48 per cent favoured capital punishment for murderers.

The results of the survey are sure to buoy the federal government, which has closely aligned itself with tough-on-crime policies such as mandatory minimum prison terms for a wide range of offences. However, they belie statistics that show falling crime rates and studies that say harsh sentences don't prevent people from committing offences.

The survey, one of three conducted simultaneously last fall in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, reveals a shared belief that even though mandatory minimum sentences can be unfair to people convicted of minor offences, they are an indispensable tool in fighting crime.

From the Globe. And anyone who takes issue with my comment about Sun Media and City TV should note this:

University of Toronto criminologist Anthony Doob said that federal and police statistics show that in 2008, the volume and severity of crime fell by 5 per cent – a pattern that is consistent with previous years.

No real surprise here. Crime has been declining in most Western democracies for decades, yet at the same time media coverage of crime has skyrocketed. If you got all your news from Breakfast Television, for instance, you'd think that almost nothing happened in the world except for crimes and accidents.

Poll shows Canadians still want action on climate change

The results weren't evenly distributed, though:

More than half of Canadians believe greenhouse gases produced by human activity are a key factor spurring climate change, and they say the planet is in peril if significant action isn't taken soon.

The findings of the Leger Marketing poll conducted less than a week after the end of climate talks in Copenhagen suggest that Canada's political leaders must more clearly explain their plans for the environment.

But the survey's regional results highlight the dilemma climate change presents for policymakers.

The highest support for immediate action on greenhouse gases came in Quebec, where almost 70% of those asked said human activity is a key driver of climate change. They want something done now.

In Ontario and British Columbia, 51% felt this way. But in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 40% or less of those surveyed shared that sense of urgency. Prairie poll participants were also most likely to say human activity had no impact on global climate change, and most likely to say they were confused about the issue.

From the London Free Press. No bit surprise about the Prairies as a region, sadly (though I'd like to have a province by province breakdown; I suspect Manitoba is a bit more enlightened than Alberta in that regard).

47 per cent back NDP with Selinger at helm

Let's hope they can maintain this:

Provincial New Democrats have a new skipper, but their popularity among Manitoba voters -- especially younger ones -- remains high.

According to a Probe Research/Winnipeg Free Press poll, 47 per cent of Manitobans would support an NDP candidate if an election were held today, compared with 37 per cent for the Tories and 11 per cent for the Liberals.

And, the NDP is even further ahead among Manitobans 18-34 years old, with 53 per cent support versus 29 per cent for the Conservatives and 12 per cent for the Liberals.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. Pretty impressive, all things considered. And the support under the 18-34 crowd is particularly promising.

Selinger is the most popular candidate with the public

A poll conducted for the Free Press by Probe Research suggests that Selinger is the most popular candidate among the general public. The poll was conducted prior to Swan's concession, and concluded that Selinger was the favoured candidate for 27% of Manitobans, compared with 12% for Ashton, 9% for Swan, and 3% for poor John Boehm (remember him?) That leaves a lot of respondents unaccounted for, of course. On the article there's a comment by "wolfrom" saying this means Selinger comes second to "none of the above", but this is unfair; looking at the details on Probe's own site (hat tip to Endless Spin Cycle for the link) we see that only 8% said "none of these", with the remaining 41% simply saying "don't know" or refusing to answer. Big difference.

Nonetheless, it remains the case that the general public is not selecting a leader; the NDP membership is (via delegates, of course). It does, however, mean that Selinger, if he wins, has a good chance of winning the public owner, contrary to some fears. Looking further at the results from the Probe site, Selinger is the favoured candidate among supporters of all the major parties; interestingly, Swan and Ashton do slightly better among Liberal and Tory supporters than among the general population. Furthermore, Selinger came out on top in every demographic category examined in the poll (broken down by sex, age, income, and education).

Of course, the $64,000 question is how this will sway people in the remaining delegate selection meetings (and in uncommitted delegates). It can't hurt Selinger's chances, at least.

"Steady as she goes" pays off

Manitoba's NDP government is again well on top of the latest poll:

From a dead heat to no contest.

The provincial New Democratic Party regained a 10-point lead in voter support in recent weeks after running neck-in-neck with the Conservatives in December, a new poll conducted for the Free Press concluded.

The omnibus survey from Probe Research found support at 46 per cent for Premier Gary Doer's NDP, compared to 36 per cent for the Tories under Hugh McFadyen. Jon Gerrard's Liberals landed 13 per cent support.

"It's really more like what we have been seeing for all this time," said Probe Research president Scott MacKay. After the blip in December, support for each party now is roughly the same as it was a year ago, he said.

In December, the Conservatives looked to be on the upswing, coming within two percentage points of the NDP and surging in popularity outside Winnipeg.

Pollsters suspected NDP popularity took a hit in rural Manitoba over the party's ban on further hog-barn construction.

But the Tories appeared to have lost December's gains in the latest numbers, with the NDP on the upswing after recent byelection victories in The Pas and Elmwood.

The premier's popularity doesn't seem to be flagging: Doer had the approval of two thirds of voters.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. I'm still pleasantly surprised when this happens; sure, the province is in good shape, but so was Saskatchewan under Lorne Calvert, and that didn't seem to help the NDP electorally. The fact that the opposition parties lack effective leadership probably has something to do with the results here.

Still, it's good to see that social democracy remains a going concern in this country.

NDP close to overtaking Liberals??

Maybe:

The Conservatives have a tenuous grasp on a majority government, while the Liberals and New Democrats are in a dead heat for second place, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted for the Toronto Star by Angus Reid Strategies, found that 40 per cent of Canadians would vote Conservative if an election were held tomorrow.

The Liberals under Stéphane Dion continue to drop, losing core supporters to the Tories as well as to the other parties. For the first time in the campaign, the Liberals and New Democrats, under Jack Layton, are tied at 21 per cent support. The Greens register 7 per cent support nationally.

The possibility of a Conservative majority is disturbing, to say the least, but Malcolm French, APR, in this babble thread, puts it in perspective:

Wake up, folks.

A Harper majority is inevitable.

Because even if Harper doesn't win a majority, the Liberals will hand him one like they did on the last Parliament.

We're going to have a Harper government, and it will be effectively a majority whatever the seat count.

Who do you want standing up to Harper?

Jack Layton?

Or no one at all?

Interesting way of looking at it, though there is a distinction worth considering, namely that even if the Liberals don't offer any real opposition, a minority Conservative government won't be locked in for four years. In any case, some indications are that the Bloc Quebecois will be able to deny the Cons their coveted majority, even as the Liberals are sinking. The best of all possible worlds, of course, would be for Harper to be denied his majority and Layton moving into Stornoway, though that might be a bit much to hope for.

Canadians almost as dumb as Americans: poll

Many years ago, a friend of mine was running for the presidency of our university's students' association. He ended his campaign speech with a statement to the effect that he was "counting on the intelligence of the electorate". He soon got a slap in the face from reality, finishing at or near the bottom of a fair-sized field of candidates. It seems that at the national level, betting on stupidity is a good bet as well:

Canadians would vote for the Conservatives in a federal election and believe Stephen Harper and Jack Layton would make better prime ministers than Stéphane Dion, according to a new poll sponsored by CBC News.

The survey, conducted by Environics between Friday and Tuesday, found that 38 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative party if an election were held immediately.

By comparison, 28 per cent would vote for the Liberal party, 19 for the NDP, eight for the Bloc Québécois and seven for the Green party.

Even when undecided voters were asked to reveal whom they were inclined to vote for, the Conservatives still kept the lead: Conservatives (33 per cent), Liberals (24), NDP (16), Bloc (7), Green (6).

From the CBC. And this is dangerously close to majority territory for the Tories. Particularly puzzling is this:

The NDP, along with the Greens, were also considered strong when it came to the environment — Liberals got 21 per cent of the vote, with the NDP, Greens and Conservatives tied with 20 per cent.

Go figure -- people see the Cons as equal to the NDP and Greens on the environment. What the hell are they thinking? Oh yeah, I forgot -- they're thinking about what's happening on Canadian Idol.

On the other hand, the campaign hasn't actually started yet, and it's possible that these numbers will start to shift once things get going and people are forced to notice what's going on, even if on a superficial level. Let's hope so, anyway.

Do the Afghans really want us there?

No doubt my loyal reader(s) have heard of the Environics poll about how the Afghans just love having us there, and really really want us to stay. Of course, we all know that polls are often inaccurate, depending on the methodology. Curiously, some are calling this one into question (gasp!):

This new poll is not the first of its kind to be done in Afghanistan, but the results are striking because they contradict dozens of comprehensive studies conducted by other agencies. For example a remarkable 73 per cent of respondents in the D3 Systems study said that women's rights were improving in Afghanistan. This contradicts the NGO Womenkind Worldwide which found that attacks against women have actually been on the rise since 2001 and that there had been no improvement in the lives of Afghan women as a whole.

Likewise, a whopping 76 per cent of people said that they have "a lot" or "some" confidence in the Afghan National Army and 60 per cent have faith in the Afghan National Police (ANP). This contradicts countless documents from groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch who have consistently found that a majority of Afghans cite the Army and ANP as a chief source of violence. In fact, poll results from December 2006 found 78 per cent of Afghan people believed that the ANP was corrupt and one in four Afghans had to pay bribes to local police for protection. So therefore, the numbers from D3 Systems either represent an astounding turnaround in public opinion or there was some type of flaw in the research.

These strange results aren't surprising given the history of the D3 Systems polling firm. The group, whose former clients include NATO and the RAND Corporation (a virtual who's who of the military industrial complex) is notorious for providing the results that are needed to advance a political agenda.

Tellingly, D3 Systems is the only polling form in the world that was able to consistently show that a majority of Iraqis felt their lives had improved since the invasion of 2003. In 2004 and 2005, D3 conducted polls for media outlets based in the US and found more than 50 per cent of Iraqis were exited about their future. As late as 2006 D3 found a miraculous 64 per cent of Iraqis who felt that their lives were improving.

From here. No big surprise; unfortunately it's also no big surprise that these discrepancies aren't being discussed in the mainstream media (even the CBC, sadly). In fact, I don't recall hearing D3 even being mentioned in the newscasts I heard, just Environics.