First Nations UNESCO bid gets $10M

Gary Doer's final announcement is a big one:

The provincial government will set aside $10 million for the boreal forest on the east side of Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba Premier Gary Doer said Tuesday.

Four First Nations communities are preparing a bid to secure a World Heritage designation from the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization for lands within a four-million-hectare area of boreal forest in eastern Manitoba and western Ontario.

The land — dubbed Pimachiowin Aki — includes Atikaki Provincial Park in Manitoba and Woodland Caribou Provincial Park in Ontario.

Doer said the provincial money will go into a trust fund expected to be worth $20 million, to be put toward the project and future studies.

The Poplar River, Little Grand Rapids, Pauingassi and Pikangikum First Nations will present a final bid for the UNESCO designation in 2011 and have established a non-profit corporation to seek international recognition for the land.

From the CBC.

Selinger scores big in Inkster

One of the largest constituencies, by delegate count, went largely to Greg Selinger last night. This gives him a fairly comfortable lead, but as Never Eat Yellow Snow points out, the contest is not over yet. With approximately 50% of the delegates chosen (from constituencies and otherwise), this leaves Selinger with 65% of declared constituency delegates, and Ashton with 35%. Yellow Snow has calculated that Ashton could still have a chance of winning. To do so, however, he must sweep Interlake, The Maples, and Fort Whyte, as well as picking up a substantial amount of the labour and MYND support, and a few more constituencies.

Perhaps the biggest story, though, is this:

Premier Gary Doer's pending address change hasn't made a dent in the NDP's popularity with Manitoba voters, a new Probe Research/Free Press survey says.

The ruling New Democrats remain the most popular political party in the province with 45 per cent of Manitobans saying they would vote for the NDP in the next election.

For the NDP -- which chooses its new leader Oct. 17 -- this means their commanding lead hasn't changed since Probe's last poll conducted in June.

"We always talk about the equity that Doer brings to the party and to the electorate," Probe Research president Scott MacKay said. "Does his departure leave this big hole and this hollowness? There was nothing.

"What does this mean? He leaves and the air doesn't go out of the tire. It just stays where it is."

This is extremely good news for the NDP, of course. I suspect that Hugh McFadyen will soon be under pressure to step down if this pattern holds.

Gary Doer is moving on

The longest serving Premier in the country has decided to call it quits. He'll be missed, but I don't think it's the end of the road for his government. Certainly his personal popularity has been an important part of the NDP's success in Manitoba, but they're hardly a one man show; within his own caucus there are a number of worthy successors. Bill Blaikie, Theresa Oswald, and Greg Selinger would all be fine leaders, for instance; Blaikie is almost universally respected even by his opponents, Oswald has shown that she has the fortitude to stand up to a withering attack (as health minister she's had to fight off the Tory and Liberal attack dogs at every turn), and Selinger has done a fine job as finance minister. In this babble thread Scott Piatkowski suggests that Jennifer Howard ought to run, and he has a point; although she's a relative newcomer, she's highly intelligent and likeable. Steve Ashton is another possibility; someone calling themself Brodie, in a comment to this post at PolicyFrog's blog, claims that he's already sent out an email to his potential supporters, in fact (though this has to be treated as unconfirmed for now). Outside of caucus, some have suggested that Judy Wasylycia-Leis and/or Pat Martin might run as well, though that seems a bit less likely to me (and they'd be sorely missed at the federal level if they did).

We'll have to see how see how it goes. In any case, I think there's still plenty of life left in the provincial NDP; this should be more of a changing of the guard than the end of an era. Let's hope so, anyhow.

"Steady as she goes" pays off

Manitoba's NDP government is again well on top of the latest poll:

From a dead heat to no contest.

The provincial New Democratic Party regained a 10-point lead in voter support in recent weeks after running neck-in-neck with the Conservatives in December, a new poll conducted for the Free Press concluded.

The omnibus survey from Probe Research found support at 46 per cent for Premier Gary Doer's NDP, compared to 36 per cent for the Tories under Hugh McFadyen. Jon Gerrard's Liberals landed 13 per cent support.

"It's really more like what we have been seeing for all this time," said Probe Research president Scott MacKay. After the blip in December, support for each party now is roughly the same as it was a year ago, he said.

In December, the Conservatives looked to be on the upswing, coming within two percentage points of the NDP and surging in popularity outside Winnipeg.

Pollsters suspected NDP popularity took a hit in rural Manitoba over the party's ban on further hog-barn construction.

But the Tories appeared to have lost December's gains in the latest numbers, with the NDP on the upswing after recent byelection victories in The Pas and Elmwood.

The premier's popularity doesn't seem to be flagging: Doer had the approval of two thirds of voters.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. I'm still pleasantly surprised when this happens; sure, the province is in good shape, but so was Saskatchewan under Lorne Calvert, and that didn't seem to help the NDP electorally. The fact that the opposition parties lack effective leadership probably has something to do with the results here.

Still, it's good to see that social democracy remains a going concern in this country.

Let the dominoes fall!

A left-wing wave seems to be sweeping across parts of the Americas. It would be stretching things to say Obama is part of this except in a relative sense (I'd call him a centrist, or even centre right) but consider: Not only do we have Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, and Lula, but it looks like they may soon be joined by Mauricio Funes, the FMLN's candidate for the presidency of El Salvador. Indications are that he's ahead in the polls:

Former leftist rebels in El Salvador appear poised to accomplish at the ballot box what they were unable to accomplish on the battlefield: win power.

In the 1980s, the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front drew the U.S. into a bloody Cold War conflict in Central America.

Now, as a political party known by its acronym FMLN, it has been leading in public opinion polls for presidential elections slated for March.

If the party's candidate wins, he would be the first leftist president in El Salvador's history.

At an FMLN rally in the capital, San Salvador, supporters call Mauricio Funes — despite his white skin — "El Salvador's Barack Obama."

A former journalist, Funes once hosted a television talk show for which he had a reputation for holding government officials' feet to the fire. He has electrified the left in El Salvador in a way that previous FMLN candidates haven't.

From NPR. Meanwhile, back in our own country, Gary Doer may soon have some company in Canada again:

Nova Scotia should get ready for an NDP minority government, pollster Don Mills told a business luncheon Tuesday.

"The strength of support for the NDP has been constant and consistent for almost two years, and there seems to be very little that will disturb that in an election," he told reporters after his speech to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce.

"Any time in the last year, we would have predicted an NDP government. The reason we are predicting now is because we believe we are close to an election. We’re probably two months away from an election."

Mr. Mills, of Corporate Research Associates in Halifax, said the only thing that could derail an election call in the near future is if the Liberals decide they want to give leader Stephen McNeil, who was chosen in 2007, more time.

The pollster said the most recent survey showed the NDP was the top choice of decided voters with 36 per cent (down from 37 per cent in November), the Liberals were in second with 31 per cent (up from 27 per cent) and the Conservatives were third with 30 per cent (down from 33 per cent). Another three per cent chose the Green party (unchanged from last quarter). Of those surveyed, 37 per cent were undecided.

From the Chronicle Herald. This could get interesting.

The convention

As noted previously, I spent the weekend at Provincial Convention in Brandon. The general vibe was positive, and it was pretty productive as far as getting resolutions past goes. In fact, virtually all of the resolutions regarding the environment were debated (on Friday night), and most of them passed. Some highlights included support for centralized composting programs like those found in many cities in Ontario (using the methane produced to generate electricity), a resolution urging the government to legalize low speed electric vehicles like the ZENN, and support for First Nation partnerships for Hydro projects. One rather curious resolution was one advocating an active program to reintroduce species extirpated from Manitoba; while I sympathize with the idea, it seems to me that the cost would be high for the environmental benefit (as compared with, say, putting more natural areas under protection).

Many other subjects were dealt with too of course, though not quite as efficiently as environmental issues were. The most interesting and contentious debate centred around whether or not to continue the tuition freeze that has been in place since 2000 (it was eventually decided that continuing the freeze would be unrealistic, something the government has already accepted anyhow). Nothing else was as controversial as that; some standouts, though, include support for a civilian police commission (something this province badly needs) and a resolution advocating free dental care for children under 18 (ambitious, but also badly needed). Of course, resolutions at Convention are not actually binding on the government, but I'm optimistic that a fair amount of this will become government policy (actually, much of it already is).

Of course there were also the obligatory speeches. Doer and Layton both spoke on Saturday afternoon; curiously both speeches were introduced with a Damhnait Doyle song.

All told, the most important effect of the convention was to rally the troops (not that there's anything wrong with that). Everyone I talked to came away with a positive feeling about things (and with byelections around the corner, that's a good thing).

Dates set for provincial budget and two by-elections

Not a big surprise here:

Voters in Elmwood and The Pas head to the polls March 24, Premier Gary said today.

The two provincial by-elections will see two new MLAs elected in ridings long held by the New Democrats.

Doer also said his government will table a new budget for the coming fiscal year on March 25, the day after the vote.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. I'm going to be working on the Elmwood by-election, and possibly doing some calling for the other one as well. Additionally, I'm working on the muncipal by-election in River Heights-Fort Garry, not to mention a convention in Brandon in two weeks, so I'm going to be pretty busy most evenings for the next while. It looks pretty good, and from what I hear the government is still doing well in the polls.