News roundup, 22 Oct 2025

- Arizona's attorney general is suing to try to force House Speaker Mike Johnson to swear in Adelita Grijalva, who was elected in a special election last month. Of course, the fact that Grijalva would be the key vote needed to force a full House vote on releasing the Epstein files is widely assumed to be the reason for not seating her. Johnson says he will not swear her in while the House is adjourned; the adjournment, of course, was also his choice. The lack of a codified deadline by which a member-elect has to be sworn in is an unfortunate oversight in the system; it's almost as if the system were designed by someone who thought of political disputes as simply disagreements among people of good will, and who couldn't imagine any true American wanting to undermine democracy. Reality seems to be running up against this model, though.

- A poll indicates that more Americans blame the Republicans than the Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown. Paradoxically, though, Donald Trump's personal approval rating is increasing at the same time. Of course, the poll question specifies Democrats or Republicans in Congress, and members of Congress tend not to get the same level of adulation from their supporters as an actual president. Additionally, the question could be skipped, so some people who skipped it may have been among those who said they approve of Trump. This does lend support to the idea that much of MAGA's success comes from Trump's own personality and that the movement might falter if they lost him somehow; on the other hand, by the time he's out of the picture American democracy might be so damaged that charisma is no longer needed to retain power and even the likes of JD Vance could hold office with no effective opposition.

- Part of the East Wing of the White House, which was added in 1902, is being demolished to make way for a huge ballroom that Trump wants to construct. Given what we know about the president's sense of style, the ballroom will probably have a very high cost to aesthetics ratio. The work being done is visible from the offices of the US Treasury, whose employees have been told not to share photos of the work, ostensibly for security reasons.

- The federal Liberals' house leader, Steve MacKinnon, is expressing concerns about the prospects of getting the upcoming budget through the House of Commons. The Liberals only have 169 seats in the House, with 172 constituting a majority; neither the NDP nor the Bloc have shown enough willingness to suport the budget for MacKinnon's comfort. My guess is that enough NDP MPs will be come down with "diplomatic flu" and be absent from the House on the day of the vote for the budget to pass; I don't see them wanting to hold an election right now given that they only have an interim leader right now.

- Daniel Naroditsky, an American grandmaster and chess streamer, has died suddenly at the age of 29. A cause of death has not been disclosed but Redditors are reading between the lines, citing in particular the unfounded accusations of cheating against Naroditsky by Russian grandmaster (and former world champion) Vladimir Kramnik.

- Marvin Winans, pastor of the Perfecting Church in Detroit, has gone viral in a way he probably didn't want after criticizing a parishioner for tithing "only" $1,235 instead of the $2,000 he had asked for. Unfortunately for him, the service was livestreamed, and the clip was copied to various video sharing sites.

Health care not the only thing set back in Massachusetts vote...

... nor even the most important:

SINGAPORE/OSLO (Reuters) - Hopes for stronger world action in 2010 to curb climate change have dimmed after the U.S. Democrats lost a key Senate seat to a Republican opposed to capping emissions, experts said on Wednesday.

The election of Republican Scott Brown, an opponent of cap and trade, to the Senate after the death of Democrat Edward Kennedy dims prospects for U.S. action. Once Brown takes office, Democrats will have 59 seats in the Senate and the Republicans 41. The bill needs 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles.

Backers of the existing international Kyoto Protocol, which obliges all industrialized nations except the United States to cut emissions until 2012, will be more reluctant to take on tougher new goals for 2020 unless Washington also joins in.

U.N. climate talks in Mexico in November are meant to build on a weak "Copenhagen Accord" worked out last month by nations including the United States that sets a goal of limiting warming to no more than 2 Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial times.

But the Mexico meeting will be undermined if the United States, the top emitter behind China, has not set caps on carbon emissions. That might dash hopes for a Kyoto successor from 2013 and mean a system of domestic pledges instead.

From Scientific American. Bad news any way you slice it.

The lights all went out in Massachusetts...

Scott Brown has been elected to the Senate:

Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday in what is being called an epic upset for the Democratic Party.

Brown led by 52 per cent to 47 percent with all but 3 percent of precincts counted.

Democrat Edward Kennedy held the seat for almost 47 years before dying of brain cancer in August. Before that, his brother John held it for a decade.

Not only has Brown broken the Democrats' stranglehold, but his win also puts at risk the cause to which Ted Kennedy devoted his life.

Brown has vowed to kill the very thing Ted Kennedy lived for and President Barack Obama dearly covets — a form of universal health care.

Source. This is not good news for the Obama administration, for sure. How dramatic the effects of this are still remain to be seen, but it could get ugly. Of course, Brown won't have a long career, as kos points out:

Either Scott Brown alienates ideologically rigid Teabaggers by casting votes with Democrats in order to shore up his standing at home; or

He votes in lockstep with the rest of his party and becomes the nation's most unpopular senator.

One or the other is inevitable. Maybe both.

Which way this goes probably makes little difference to Brown's chances of getting reelected (slim), but it makes a big difference how damaging this is. If Brown votes against a filibuster, this minimalist health care package might actually be passed before the midterm elections. Unfortunately, I think the other outcome is more likely, and that the package will be delayed until fall, then die entirely when the Democrats lose their majority, as I expect they will.

Interesting...

According to this article, Nancy Pelosi is saying that health care reform will continue regardless of what happens tonight in Massachusetts. Not everyone agrees, though, as evidenced by this snippet from Stockhouse.com:

U.S. investors returned to trading today in a much better mood than they finished off with last week. Today’s earnings slate helped to boost sentiment with no major negative surprises out of the banking sector, as Citigroup’s (C) TARP losses came in even with expectations, and First Horizon (FHN) reported an improvement in its loan loss provision. Industrial manufacturer Parker-Hannafin (PHN) posted strong earnings (62 cents vs. Street 34 cents) and guidance. The health care sector has also been rallying, led by Coventry Health (CVH) and Eli Lilly (LLY) ahead of a key Massachusetts senate by-election, which may have a major impact on pending health care legislation.

In other words, the potential failure of health care reform is good news in the eyes of those arseholes.

Do-or-die day for the Democrats

Who could have imagined the Democrats having trouble in Massachusetts? Well, today a by-election (or as the Americans call them, a "special election") is being held to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Ted Kennedy. And it's possible that they could actually lose:

The special election being held today to fill Mr. Kennedy's Senate seat, which is too close to call, is a stinging verdict on President Barack Obama's first year in office. If Democrat Martha Coakley loses - or barely scrapes by - Mr. Obama will bear the blame and the consequences will reverberate for the rest of his term.

The Massachusetts race also offers voters across the country a taste of what to expect this fall, when midterm elections will be held for all 435 seats in U.S. House of Representatives and more than a third of those in the 100-seat Senate. Gone from the Democratic pitch is the message of hope and empowerment that fuelled Mr. Obama's 2008 campaign. In its place are eerie attack ads and warnings of the dark days that a Republican win would bring.

From the Globe and Mail. If this happens, it could cripple Obama's administration, since the Democrats would lose their 60% majority in the Senate that they need to stop a filibuster. This would mean that the health care plan would probably collapse; all that the Republicans need is to delay it until the midterm elections. Worse, it could be damaging to efforts to minimize climate change. And in any case it could seriously damage Obama's chance of reelection in 2012. Gwynne Dyer's fear that Obama could be the next LBJ might well bear fruit. How does "President Mike Huckabee" sound to you? Maybe "President Nehemiah Scudder"?