Suburbanites carry the day in Winnipeg North

Kevin Lamoureux is good at winning elections, if nothing else:

Kevin Lamoureux has formed a second beachhead for the federal Liberals in Manitoba.

The spunky former Inkster MLA won the Winnipeg North byelection Monday night, seizing a longtime NDP stronghold and giving Michael Ignatieff's Grits a big morale boost in the process.

Lamoureux earned 7,303 votes compared with 6,508 for the NDP's Kevin Chief in a race that literally went back and forth all evening. All 153 polls had reported by about 9:50 p.m., and advance votes and institutional votes were also tallied.

Conservative candidate Julie Javier finished third with 1,645 votes.

From the Free Press. Naturally Chief carried the traditional North End, while Lamoureux dominated the more suburban parts of the riding. I'm not entirely sure what it is about Lamoureux that appeals to such people, but then I don't understand suburbanites generally.

My suspicions about Kevin Lamoureaux prove true...

In this entry I speculated that Lamoureux's slip of the tongue where he spoke of "the residents of Winnipeg North" might indicate that he has aspirations to run for Judy Wasylycia-Leis' seat if and when she vacates it to run for mayor. Well, it seems I was right:

Manitoba Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux said he'll seek his party's nomination in Winnipeg North if Wasylycia-Leis leaves.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. Could he win? I'd like to think not, but some people familiar with that riding think he could.

Another day, another NDP by-election victory

Last night's results in Concordia were no surprise to anyone. What was a little surprising is how candid Hugh McFadyen was about the matter. Yesterday morning he said the following:

"We don't have any champagne on ice over at party headquarters in anticipation of a big surprise tonight," he said.

"I expect that the NDP will … own the podium when it comes to Concordia tonight."

Source. Full marks for not being self-deceptive, I suppose, but it's kind of a slap in the face to his candidate and the campaign workers -- especially since the candidate was taken by surprise when asked about this:

However, Biebrich seemed somewhat stunned when told what McFadyen had said.

"You know, that's something he's, uh, you know, him or myself, we wouldn't want to appear overconfident," Biebrich said in response. "We want to make sure every vote we can get gets out."

Ouch.

Interview with Matt Wiebe

Curtis at Endless Spin Cycle has interviewed Matt Wiebe, the NDP candidate in the by-election in Concordia. Worth a read.

Health care not the only thing set back in Massachusetts vote...

... nor even the most important:

SINGAPORE/OSLO (Reuters) - Hopes for stronger world action in 2010 to curb climate change have dimmed after the U.S. Democrats lost a key Senate seat to a Republican opposed to capping emissions, experts said on Wednesday.

The election of Republican Scott Brown, an opponent of cap and trade, to the Senate after the death of Democrat Edward Kennedy dims prospects for U.S. action. Once Brown takes office, Democrats will have 59 seats in the Senate and the Republicans 41. The bill needs 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles.

Backers of the existing international Kyoto Protocol, which obliges all industrialized nations except the United States to cut emissions until 2012, will be more reluctant to take on tougher new goals for 2020 unless Washington also joins in.

U.N. climate talks in Mexico in November are meant to build on a weak "Copenhagen Accord" worked out last month by nations including the United States that sets a goal of limiting warming to no more than 2 Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial times.

But the Mexico meeting will be undermined if the United States, the top emitter behind China, has not set caps on carbon emissions. That might dash hopes for a Kyoto successor from 2013 and mean a system of domestic pledges instead.

From Scientific American. Bad news any way you slice it.

The lights all went out in Massachusetts...

Scott Brown has been elected to the Senate:

Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday in what is being called an epic upset for the Democratic Party.

Brown led by 52 per cent to 47 percent with all but 3 percent of precincts counted.

Democrat Edward Kennedy held the seat for almost 47 years before dying of brain cancer in August. Before that, his brother John held it for a decade.

Not only has Brown broken the Democrats' stranglehold, but his win also puts at risk the cause to which Ted Kennedy devoted his life.

Brown has vowed to kill the very thing Ted Kennedy lived for and President Barack Obama dearly covets — a form of universal health care.

Source. This is not good news for the Obama administration, for sure. How dramatic the effects of this are still remain to be seen, but it could get ugly. Of course, Brown won't have a long career, as kos points out:

Either Scott Brown alienates ideologically rigid Teabaggers by casting votes with Democrats in order to shore up his standing at home; or

He votes in lockstep with the rest of his party and becomes the nation's most unpopular senator.

One or the other is inevitable. Maybe both.

Which way this goes probably makes little difference to Brown's chances of getting reelected (slim), but it makes a big difference how damaging this is. If Brown votes against a filibuster, this minimalist health care package might actually be passed before the midterm elections. Unfortunately, I think the other outcome is more likely, and that the package will be delayed until fall, then die entirely when the Democrats lose their majority, as I expect they will.

Interesting...

According to this article, Nancy Pelosi is saying that health care reform will continue regardless of what happens tonight in Massachusetts. Not everyone agrees, though, as evidenced by this snippet from Stockhouse.com:

U.S. investors returned to trading today in a much better mood than they finished off with last week. Today’s earnings slate helped to boost sentiment with no major negative surprises out of the banking sector, as Citigroup’s (C) TARP losses came in even with expectations, and First Horizon (FHN) reported an improvement in its loan loss provision. Industrial manufacturer Parker-Hannafin (PHN) posted strong earnings (62 cents vs. Street 34 cents) and guidance. The health care sector has also been rallying, led by Coventry Health (CVH) and Eli Lilly (LLY) ahead of a key Massachusetts senate by-election, which may have a major impact on pending health care legislation.

In other words, the potential failure of health care reform is good news in the eyes of those arseholes.

Do-or-die day for the Democrats

Who could have imagined the Democrats having trouble in Massachusetts? Well, today a by-election (or as the Americans call them, a "special election") is being held to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Ted Kennedy. And it's possible that they could actually lose:

The special election being held today to fill Mr. Kennedy's Senate seat, which is too close to call, is a stinging verdict on President Barack Obama's first year in office. If Democrat Martha Coakley loses - or barely scrapes by - Mr. Obama will bear the blame and the consequences will reverberate for the rest of his term.

The Massachusetts race also offers voters across the country a taste of what to expect this fall, when midterm elections will be held for all 435 seats in U.S. House of Representatives and more than a third of those in the 100-seat Senate. Gone from the Democratic pitch is the message of hope and empowerment that fuelled Mr. Obama's 2008 campaign. In its place are eerie attack ads and warnings of the dark days that a Republican win would bring.

From the Globe and Mail. If this happens, it could cripple Obama's administration, since the Democrats would lose their 60% majority in the Senate that they need to stop a filibuster. This would mean that the health care plan would probably collapse; all that the Republicans need is to delay it until the midterm elections. Worse, it could be damaging to efforts to minimize climate change. And in any case it could seriously damage Obama's chance of reelection in 2012. Gwynne Dyer's fear that Obama could be the next LBJ might well bear fruit. How does "President Mike Huckabee" sound to you? Maybe "President Nehemiah Scudder"?

Good news for the federal NDP?

Is the NDP's recent victory in the New Westminster-Coquitlam by-election a sign of things to come? Hard to say, but many are suggesting that the HST was a major factor. Layton certainly hopes so:

“[This] was the first election on the HST,” says the NDP Leader, whose party's portion of the riding vote went up eight points from 2008 results. “If it's even worth five points [of vote share], that's worth seats in B.C. and Ontario.”

From the Globe and Mail. With the Liberals in disarray, could it be that the NDP is poised to become the realistic alternative to the Cons? Too soon to tell (a lot can change by the time the general election comes along) but this is worth watching for sure.

Not a huge surprise...

... though the party apparatchiks did their best to convince us it would be a tough battle:

The NDP has retained both of its seats up for grabs in Manitoba legislature byelections Tuesday.

Former MP Bill Blaikie emerged the victor by a comfortable margin over Progressive Conservative Adrian Schulz, Liberal Regan Wolfrom and James Beddome of the Green party in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood.

With 98 per cent of the polls reporting, Blaikie held 2,303 votes, compared to Schulz's 909 and Wolfrom's 802. Beddome registered 210 votes.

"I'm looking forward to being on the government side," said Blaikie, noting that will be a first in his lengthy political career.

"It's one of the reasons I chose to come out of retirement. I've always wondered how government works — now maybe I'll find out."

NDP candidate Frank Whitehead, former chief of the Opaskwayak Cree Nation, outpaced Progressive Conservative Edna Nabess and Liberal Maurice Berens in The Pas. With 75 per cent of the polls reporting, Whitehead had 2,449 votes, compared to Nabess's 680 and 219 for Berens.

CBC

Of course I'm happy with the outcome. Blaikie is one of the stalwarts of Canadian politics, while Whitehead is a promising newcomer. I could actually see us winning the next election; not only do we have a good team, but the other parties are in disarray, and Manitoba is withstanding the current crisis better than almost anywhere else.

Orlikow wins

Hey! I just got something right:

Former school trustee John Orlikow was voted in to Winnipeg city council in Tuesday's byelection in the ward of River Heights-Fort Garry.

With all 49 polls reporting Tuesday evening, an unofficial tally gave Orlikow 4,392 votes, compared with former broadcaster Geoff Currier's 3,299. The byelection was held to fill the seat left vacant by the death of deputy mayor Brenda Leipsic in December.

From the CBC.

Geoff Currier doesn't believe in anthropogenic climate change

So it seems, anyway; when the Winnipeg Trails Association and Bike To The Future met with him and John Orlikow to get their opinions on active transportation, Currier came out with this gem:

According to a summary distributed on Friday, Currier told representatives of both organizations, "I believe that if we were to take all the cars in North America off the road tomorrow, it wouldn't have any effect on climate change."

Currier declined to comment on Friday, except to say he had no idea the groups intended to make the content of the meeting public.

"They never indicated to me this kind of report would be forthcoming," he said.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. Well duh... why the hell would you think these organizations would be asking candidates' opinions unless they planned to publicize them?

My tentative prediction for River Heights-Fort Garry

I think Orlikow will win.

Having been phoning a fair bit on the campaign, a good many people seem pretty noncommittal, but there's more support for Orlikow than Currier in just about every poll I've called. Interestingly, one fellow, after speaking in a critical way about the way school taxes have gone up, said that he was leaning toward Orlikow nevertheless because Currier, well, failed to impress him with his intellect. Of course, River Heights is one place where being intelligent can actually count for something, and where being a CJOB broadcaster might actually be a stroke against you. I haven't done much calling into Fort Garry or Linden Woods, so I'm not sure how well the pattern holds in those areas.

So yeah, I think Orlikow can pull this off.

More dirt from the by-election campaign

The Ikea proposal is, of course, one of the big issues in the campaign. John Orlikow, and many residents of the area, are not opposed to the store in principle but are concerned with the way this is being rushed through. And then there's Mr. Currier's comments:

Geoff Currier said the Ikea development is a great opportunity for the city. He said Winnipeg will suffer serious damage and reduce its chances of attracting other large companies if it blows the deal.

"If Manitoba and Winnipeg chase a $400-million project out of town, not only will we never get a development from these people again, nobody will come to Winnipeg," he said.

From this CBC story. And on the radio this morning, he was implying that any delay (like, say, to take a close look at the pros and cons of the proposal) will result in the project being "chased out of town". In other words, he seems to be saying "Accept this proposal, no questions asked, or nothing good will happen here ever again." Gotta love reasoned debate, eh?

John's career goes down the toilet

John Tory, that is:

KAWARTHA LAKES - PC leader John Tory has gone down to defeat in the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock byelection.

Voter discontent struck Tory a blow from which his political career is not expected to recover. He has scheduled a press conference at Queen's Park at 2 p.m. on Friday to announce his future plans.

The stunning tight race that led to an upset sends Liberal candidate Rick Johnson to the seat in the Ontario Legislature that former MPP Laurie Scott gave up for Tory.

Tory appeared at the campaign party at the Olympia Restaurant in Lindsay shortly before 11 p.m. The upstairs banquet room was filled with sombre supporters and suspenseful media.

He was accompanied by Scott, his wife and other family members.

"It was a spirited and honourable campaign," he said, looking composed.

Tory hoped that Johnson "will learn from the example of Laurie Scott." He noted her integrity, courage and team loyalty.

He added that he was sorry her public service had been interrupted. He later spoke of her as "a special friend and true inspiration."

From the Lindsay Post.

Geoff Currier shows where his priorities lie

The first of several debates for the River Heights-Fort Garry by-election took place today. It seems that the subject of affordable housing was a bit contentious:

Two candidates vying to be the next city councillor for River Heights-Fort Garry squared off today over whether to mix luxury and affordable housing in future residential developments.

In a ward that is part of Winnipeg’s expanding south side, the difference between former school trustee John Orlikow and broadcaster Geoff Currier was particularly resonant.

City hall should mandate that all future residential projects include affordable housing, Orlikow said.

“Some portions of (suburban residential developments) should be available to people on a low income,” Orlikow said, noting he meant even higher-income suburbs such as Waverley West.

But Currier suggested communities of mixed housing would make selling expensive homes difficult.

“You cannot attract high-end home customers to an area that has low-end housing beside it,” he said.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. Blah blah blah, the usual right wing bullshit. If you don't want to live next to people who might be (gasp) different from you, kindly move to Niverville and leave the rest of us alone.

Dates set for provincial budget and two by-elections

Not a big surprise here:

Voters in Elmwood and The Pas head to the polls March 24, Premier Gary said today.

The two provincial by-elections will see two new MLAs elected in ridings long held by the New Democrats.

Doer also said his government will table a new budget for the coming fiscal year on March 25, the day after the vote.

From the Winnipeg Free Press. I'm going to be working on the Elmwood by-election, and possibly doing some calling for the other one as well. Additionally, I'm working on the muncipal by-election in River Heights-Fort Garry, not to mention a convention in Brandon in two weeks, so I'm going to be pretty busy most evenings for the next while. It looks pretty good, and from what I hear the government is still doing well in the polls.