The future of Pakistan?

It seems likely that the Afghan war would quickly end in utter defeat for NATO if Pakistan's regime collapsed. So what is the likelyhood of that? Canada Guy thinks this issue is worth a closer look (h/t to jblaque in one of the comments to this post):

Recent history in Pakistan seems to bear a similarity to events in Iran during the rule of the Shah. The recent leadership of Pakistan has been similar in several ways to that of the Shah. In both countries the leaders were strongly backed by the United States. Both were involved in repressing or attacking their own people. In Iran, this led the revolution of 1979 which created an Islamic Republic. Could something similar happen in Pakistan?

His conclusions aren't encouraging either:

Pakistan's alignment with the US and US interests appears to be the largest factor causing instability within that country. The majority of Pakistanis do not support this role nor any domestic government that follows it. I will predict that unless there is an election in Pakistan of a government that follows the will of its people more closely, the likelihood of a revolution, coup, or breakup will increase over time. Eventually the situation will become untenable, and one of these outcomes will come to pass.

So why the hell don't we get out of Afghanistan now, before this happens? It'll be a lot harder afterwards. And the consequences of a coup in Pakistan could go well beyond Afghanistan... it could conceivably include stuff like this.