Thursday, August 5, 2010

Conservative lead evaporates

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have fallen to a statistical tie with the Liberals:

The latest EKOS survey shows the Conservatives virtually tied now with the Liberals, 29.7 per cent compared to 28.5 per cent. Pollster Frank Graves calls this the “revenge of propeller-heads” – the educated class in Canada, which seems to have reacted swiftly and negatively to the Tory government’s census change.

“This is really a very bad poll for the Conservatives,” Mr. Graves says. “They have slipped back into a virtual tie with the Liberals … and looked poised for a disastrous rout in Quebec.”

The two-week poll has Jack Layton’s NDP at 17.4 per cent, puts the Green Party at 11.1 per cent and shows 10.4 per cent support for the Bloc. The EKOS survey of 3,444 Canadians was conducted between July 21 and Aug. 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

From the Globe. The NDP is doing remarkably well too; the Liberals don't seem to have gained significantly at their expense. Jane Taber, in the linked post, suggests that the census issue may be a reason for the drop in Con support; I'm not sure, but their unwillingness to back down on the issue may end up hurting them.

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